proactivetrader

Was the AIG Bailout a Goldman Bailout by Proxy?

A few freudian skips and not a little GS spin in the article's conclusion and in some of the comments. Let's not skip the utter hubris of the current allocation for GS bonuses when the fact is GS should have gone the way of Lehman if it were not for GS alumni in gov't. GS alumni should now be lepers and all of them dismissed from gov't service. One comment completely misses the point of the Bubbles article. GS created the bubble, knew, did not guess, that the bubble they created would blow. And then hedged against the bubble they created and made money on the fraud and then on the crash. Now GS is busy creating the next bubble. This GS culture must be destroyed. The fed and treasury has to break up GS before they go private again. Further GS is in a regulated industry and is not and should not have the rights of other corporations that are not in a regulated industry. We need and Enron investigation of GS to prove and prosecute the fraud involved. I am sure they are already busy destroying emails.

Five Reasons the Market Could Crash This Fall

This article may be right. But there is no use acting on it until we get a sell signal indicating a return to the Bear. Graham and Dodd said the market is a big voting machine. We count the votes and the votes say we are in a new bull market move up from a well established inverted head and shoulders bottom. It doesn't really matter if the Fed is responsible or the market is manipulated. Right now you will be killed if you think we are still in a bear market. Graham and Dodd would pay attention to the vote count before acting on the bearish case for fundamentals. For our vote counting machine go to flowofcapital.com. Compare our vote count to the count in 2003. Don't short this market until it signals a change from current bull move to bear move. We have been bearish since 2007 and just turned bullish. Could be short lived, but we will wait for the signals to tell us.

AIG Is Dead, Long Live AIG

It is obvious that the price of AIG is being manipulated. And the SEC, NYSE and specialist are doing nothing about it. Who was the last CEO of AIG? Wasn't he an alum of Goldman? Who has programs that can manipulate the market? Why Goldman by their own admission. This is what happens when the regulators are in bed with the regulated. Is this ever going to end? Will confidence in the whole stock market have to erode to the point of extinction? Is it true that most of the trading volume in the total market is in speculation like AIG? When are we going to see some laws passed to prevent firms like Lehman, Bear, AIG and yes GS most of all, from continuing to destroy confidence in our financial markets. Heck, even the Pope is accusing us of taking the financial world down the tubes. When are we going to see the kind of laws that we saw in the aftermath of the great depression? Or are we just going to let GS create the next bubble and watch it blow up in our faces?

Buffett's Betrayal

Let's face it Warren is the best of the lot. This excellent article will do him no harm. It is easier for a camel to get through the eye of the needle than for a rich man to get into heaven. I have very low expectations for these people, even good ole Warren. But he is head and shoulders above them all. There isn't a place low enough in hell or hot enough for the toxic greed at Goldman and the bubbles they have created deliberately bringing us to the brink of the second great depression. This article makes the point that Goldman would not have survived with out the FDIC and gov't backing. While we needed to save Goldman short term there is no reason whatsoever for its existence going forward. The culture at Goldman is toxic greed willing to destroy the US and the world to make a buck. Whereas regular greed is just interested in getting rich. The gov't needs to take a flamethrower to Goldman. It does not deserve to exist in any human society. Warren saved Salomon Bros. to save his investment and did exactly what this article describes, he went to Washington. He saved his investment not because he is a good investor but he was very good at lobbying Washington. Likewise he is now involved in Goldman. When he gets his money out of Goldman he will stop trying to save it. Goldman didn't need Warren's money but they did need his name and they knew from Salomon what Warren would do for them if they had Warren's money. So Warren has clay feet, what else is new? We need articles like this so that we always remember what we are dealing with and let us not be unrealistic about our heroes.

Global Markets Weekly Trading Preview: Does This Rally Have Legs?

S&P 500 confirms April Bull Market Signal. Several weeks before it tops out above 1000 and attempts a pullback to 880.
www.flowofcapital.com/...

Downward Correction Could Be in Store for the Markets

Our money flow signals are cloning the signals of the last bottom. Compare our 2003 signals with the current signals at our website. No question we are ready to test the downside. Remains to be seen whether we test the bottom again as in 2003.

STEC's Massive Selloff: It All Hinges on EMC

The best time to buy GARP is when a growth stock is hammered. Look at the chart and forget the analysts and rumors. This is an exhaustion selling bottom. This is a leader in a cutting edge future of this business product. SSD is the wave of the future and STEC has made the beachead and owns it. I don't know if they are smart enough to keep it, but right now they own it and will for the next year or two. The 1st qtr is just a speed bump in the road typical for new, cutting edge products and small companies with big name customers screwing them around. The shorts have done this, they are finished and now it is time to go the other way. Just watch out for secondary offerings at the next peak. They will screw you at the top every time. The shorts did this with rumors and the weak holders that bought the secondary at 31 and flipped out of it at 40 to the real suckers who got burned as it dropped like a rock. By the way this is the history of STEC and you have to be a little suspicious of the insiders/founders who bailed at 31. Now they can buy it back at 14. And they are shrewd enough to do that.

Global Markets Weekly Trading Preview: Does This Rally Have Legs?

Even if you don't use our proprietary indicators, there is an obvious inverted head and shoulders bottom in place. The market has started a bull market move up from that bottom. It would be very unusual to revisit the 666 bottom in the forseeable future. However it is very possible this new bull market may be short lived. If, for example the credit card bubble blows like the mortgage bubble, we could easily retest 666 and even go lower. But until we have another major bubble blow, compliments of the bubble maker GS, the market must be now looked as a Bull not a Bear. The recent weak pull backs to 880 fooled us as we were expecting pullbacks to 800. That would have happened if this were a bounce in a bear market. Obviously it isn't. As Graham and Dodd point out the market is just one big voting machine. Right or wrong money flow counts those votes. That is reality right now, even if the fundamentals call for a continued Bear market. Right now reality is Bull and delusion is Bear. I am just giving you the vote count. Doesn't mean the voters are right, but they make the market.


On Aug 03 08:19 AM SeeTheLight wrote:

> All the bad news is quietly being ignored, the lack of significant
> volume allows for market makers to pull end of day "stick saves"
> in the last 15 minutes of trading on any day where the market seems
> to be significantly down and the analysts on CNBC seem worried about
> a pullback. Every down day is just another excuse for "buying on
> the dip". We will continue to rally until something significant happens,
> another Bear or Lehman or return to Mark to Market, a bad treasury
> auction, or other unexpected situation, then we are off to the races.
> Of course this rally is all an illusion driven bear market rally,
> but do not fight the tape, I repeat, do not fight the tape. Just
> have your stops in and be ready to sell when we get a technical breakdown.
> Until then remain long, because as the old saying goes the market
> can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

Amgen 2Q Earnings Beat; Raises Guidance, Announces Denosumab Deal

AMGN looks like 65 before it pulls back to test support. First buy signal was 10 weeks ago. See chart

www.flowofcapital.com/...

Weekly Charts Point to Continued Recession, Bear Market

We expected this selloff some weeks back (up on our website.) Likewise the weekly Nasdaq chart is now posted using the qqqq chart. Our "buy on weakness" signals are still in place. MONEY FLOW IS STILL POSITIVE!

Dow 30 Winning and Losing Streaks

Money flow provides the causation for price movement. I have just posted on our website the latest money flow ratings for the DJIA30 stocks. These are weekly signals, not daily, and therefore more reliable. Obviously the 8 days for MRK did not turn our signals positive.


On May 29 05:58 AM JoeCole wrote:

> This looks like the "gambler's fallacy" to me. Streaks are likely
> in any random series of data, and you hav provided no reason for
> causation.

Comparing Fertilizers Stocks

From: ProactiveTrader <proactivetrader@ya... Sent: Sat 01/03/09 11:23 PM



Subject: MOS earnings, retest 34-31, at 36.86 Type: Attachments

Attachments: MOS1109.JPG 38.6 kb MOS1012009.doc 82.5 kb

Alert: The users email-address has been added to the addressbook

MOS, Mosaic, 36.86, up 2.26 on Friday. Earnings due Monday, after the close. Technical indicators are expecting good news. (45 calls at 49 cents and 30 puts at 63 cents for a total cost of $1.12 to play before earnings.) (Or the 35 calls at 3.84 and the 35 puts at 1.85 for 5.69 cost to breakeven. Price would have to move up to 42 or down to 32 after earnings in this hedge to breakeven.)



The attachments show a 5 Star stock contrasted with a “capitulation selling” chart. The Flow of Capital chart (flowofcapital.com) shows negative signals but improving with some green signals indicating active bottom fishing. Good earnings news will bring in more bottom fishing and propel price up to 40 resistance. Bad news will be a negative surprise and target price back down to test the bottom, below 30. Meeting expectations will target a test of 34.



The attached 5 Star Rating (stockpickerusa.com) is a result of calculated, long-term value and forecasts. Capitulation selling took price down to 22 after being as high as 163. This sets up the opportunity to be pro-active after the earnings announcement. Price has already moved up 68% from the bottom, anticipating good earnings news and the fact that all the major selling is done. (See Flow of Capital, FC, turning up and the spike in Demand, DS indications of pre-mature bottom fishing.)



After earnings are announced, price will target 40 resistance or 30 support. Recent analyst downgrades as well as the move up in anticipation of good earnings point to the probability of selling on the news and a retracement to test support at 34 and 31 on the 5-day chart.



Only 90 days ago analysts were looking for 2.24 in earnings, but now they are expecting only 1.41 on Monday. Next qtr. earnings estimates have dropped from 2.83 to 1.13, getting worse rather than better. Earnings reported will be a reality check that will likely retrace part of that 68% move up from the bottom. Bottom fishers may have had their fill and wait for lower prices as indicated by the Demand spike on the attached chart.



Proactively there is an opportunity to participate after earnings are announced and as price heads for known support (or resistance) levels .

Keep Your Seatbelts Fastened - It's Gonna Be a Bumpy Ride

Short covering always acts as a cushion in a bear market. We are in a short term selling cycle, in a bear market and that will take us into Oct. Yes we are having some unusual bounces, but it is still a selling cycle that will continue to test the bottom of this market. It ain't over until it is over. And this market is far from finished with the current short term selling cycle. If you would like to see our chart signals that will tell you when it is over, and we are ready to start the next bounce up in a short term buying cycle then just email [e-mail] I will send you the annotated market charts. This call for a bounce up is just pre-mature. The existing bottom of this bear market is seriously in question. The next few weeks will determine whether it holds. Watch out. This is hurricane Ike coming at us. According to the Traders Almanac, Oct. is a bear market killer. But at what price? Our major signal on the SP500 turned bearish last year and has remained so since then. You will see this on the chart I send you. Any short term, next week bounce, will be a sucker bounce.

The Long Case for Pfizer

One of the ways to avoid a value trap (buying too early) is to use a chart. Bottom fishiers are always too early. It hurts performance when you are right and the market is wrong. The price keeps going down when it clearly should be going up. Wait until capital starts flowing into PFE, confirming the bottom is in place. For example don't buy here at 20 but wait for the next re-test of 18-19 and check money flow to see if the bottom is going to hold. I will be happy to send you the current Flow of Capital chart. email [e-mail] I tried pasting it here but it did not work. It shows capital is still flowing out of PFE but it is improving. It also shows that PFE will retest 18-19 again. And the market is about to start a short term selling cycle which will take PFE down with the DJIA.