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  • As far as tablets go, concerns about mobile ad monetization could be misplaced. Credit Suisse recently reported its checks indicate search ad "user behavior and conversion rates on tablets are very similar" to PCs, even as tablet ad prices remain 20%-40% lower. The firm expects Google's (GOOG) AdWords overhaul to help narrow the pricing gap. Meanwhile, Marin Software (MRIN) predicts tablet conversion rates will eclipse PC rates by year's end, and mobile ad firm Adfonic reports tablet click-through are well above smartphone rates in many (but not all) categories. [View news story]
    With computing models clearly shifting toward tablet and mobile I never understood the recent negativity with model ad monetization. The question in not if, it's when and how fast...
    Apr 1, 2013. 07:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatile Netflix Is A No Go For Investors [View article]
    Just wanted to follow-up with your numerous called to sell NFLX and P. From what I can tell NFLX has moved close to 400% in the other direction. How did these calls work out for you?
    Feb 14, 2013. 04:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Volatile Netflix Is A No Go For Investors [View article]
    There you go again Qin. Every time there is a run you come out with your short thesis. This time, however, you got caught with your pants down. Say hello to my little friend, Mr. Carl Icahn...
    Oct 31, 2012. 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of Netflix (NFLX) move 2.1% lower market after dealReporter (among others) nixes the idea Microsoft is interested in buying the company. Rumors of a possible acquisition fueled a double-digit rally in Netflix shares last week. [View news story]
    Wait, who the hell is dealReporter?
    Oct 31, 2012. 09:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Netflix Really The Disaster Everyone Thinks It Is? [View article]
    I like your rational assessment of the risks and opportunities. Thanks!
    Oct 10, 2012. 02:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Still Isn't A Buy [View article]
    You're off 30% in a week making this call. Wrong. Plain wrong.
    Oct 8, 2012. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Positive Momentum Building For Netflix - 5 Reasons It Is Likely To Continue [View article]
    Cord-cutting is a very real trend that you want to be on the right side of.
    Oct 7, 2012. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Still Isn't A Buy [View article]
    Amazon's whole model is weird to be honest.

    First of all they run for cash flow, not profit. Then you pay $100 a year for Prime to get expedited shipping options, and oh hey well throw in free video streaming with your Prime.

    And for every prime member, AMZN already loses $100-200 per customer per year according to an article I read about a year ago.

    So, how much can they actually throw as their service that is just oddly piggybacked on to Prime with which they lose significant money? How is that going to fuel their library and service expansion?

    Their video streaming service is going to have to be restructured at some point, guaranteed. It's just set-up the way it is now to grab marketshare on the short-term and can in no way hold a candle to the budget that Netflix has for new contact as listed on its balance sheet.
    Oct 5, 2012. 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Netflix Still Isn't A Buy [View article]
    You said the same thing with P, as you did with NFLX, very near their bottoms using a thesis of throwing every possible negative business challenge on the table.

    WIth regards to fair-disclosure are you short NFLX or P, either directly through securities, options, or via proxy though AMZN or SIRI? Please footnote if you are.
    Oct 5, 2012. 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capital Research Global Investors discloses it owned a 10.5% stake in Netflix (NFLX +3.4%) as of July 31. CRGI, a Capital Group division, isn't typically an activist investor. [View news story]
    Still an interesting significant stake in NFLX. That's seems to be a rather large, concentration to be completely passive. I wouldn't be surprised to see some interesting activity develop in coming months. I wish it was Icahn!
    Aug 11, 2012. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • iHeartRadio Grows Even More: How Will This Impact Sirius XM And Pandora? [View article]
    Clear channel will burn through all of the cash and equivalents in 4-5 quarters. With a free service through the end of the year this is unlikely to change unless somehow they can monetize ad revenue more effectively, and quickly. And when they charge for their personalized service they are in the same royalty boat as everyone else, except with a much larger installed user base than everyone else. This loss-leader tactic to play catch up with their competitors in their respective markets. Not worried about these guys at all.

    Pandora and Spotify will probably emerge as the main players in future radio, with Sirius relegated as a niche player catering to truck drivers, country bumpkins, and commuters who will pay up for sports and celebrity coverage. The fact that I can listen to Siri on my Google TV means nothing to me.

    Everyone is so confused about where modern radio is heading, but it really isn't that complicated. I'd be long P and Spotify if it were public.
    Jun 27, 2012. 06:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Would Be A Buy, If It Weren't For These Crazy Decisions [View article]
    You're right... I checked out LilyHammer last night and actually liked it, so I watched episode 2, and it was getting very late, but I even went for episode 3. Woke up much later and all 8 epodes had played.

    HBO is the master at staggering their release schedules and keeping you captive with cliffhangers and multiple story arcs. The are the gold standard. While I'm watching True Blood, I'm waiting for Boardwalk Empire and Game of Thrones. I'm also waiting for Netflix to take their business model to the next level...
    Jun 27, 2012. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Would Be A Buy, If It Weren't For These Crazy Decisions [View article]
    It worked pretty well for Steve Jobs...
    Jun 27, 2012. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Now Is The Time To Short Pandora [View article]
    Small changes in the denominator of the P/E will make a huge difference in the ratio you cite.

    If there is one platform where mobile ads will work, it's with P. It'll work the same way advertising works with terrestrial radio - all $17B of it.

    As compared to SIRI, P doesn't require specialized hardware other than a smartphone, it's free unless you go premium with Pandora One, and is personalized.

    Go ahead and go short on P, it takes two to make a trade and I need another chance to accumulate.
    May 30, 2012. 01:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora Goes On The Offensive, Takes It To Traditional Radio [View article]
    It takes two to make a trade. If you don't believe in the internet radio story then go short and make $, if you end up being right. It's really that simple. And if you've been short the past two months then you've been utterly crushed.
    May 25, 2012. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment