Elliott

Natural Gas Production Declines Are Becoming More Evident

Mmarrkk: you raise a good point. I would meet you halfway, and say that the current gas surplus is due to both overfinancing (i.e., loose money) in '08 and depressed demand in '09.

Natural Gas Production Declines Are Becoming More Evident

Any year-over-year analysis using 2008 as a comparison is misleading. When the financials and the hedge funds ran up the price of energy during the commodity bubble last year, the high prices made it attractive for drillers to produce as much as possible. This lead to massive overproduction, which is stuffing all of the available storage today.

Last week 67 Bcf was put into storage. The five year average, using EIA numbers, is 65 Bcf this time of year. I'm not seeing evidence of lower-than-normal production, only a return to normal levels. I think the real story is that we continue to have normal production in the face of a 500 Bcf surplus.

UNG: The Best Way to Invest in Natural Gas

Today's quotes: front month gas futures = $3.65, next month = $4.61. That one dollar premium is a steep fee to pay every month when holding UNG.

Natural Gas: Extreme Contango Suggests Caution for E&P Companies

Two main reasons Congress is ignoring NG

1. Coal lobby

2. Political calculations -- Pennsylvania is an important swing state in elections, and neither side wants to be punished by Penn voters for causing the loss of coal industry jobs.

On Sep 08 12:01 PM GotLife wrote:

> Current Congress is not enamored with NG because of carbon emissions.
> Their base is awaiting "energy with zero ecological impact" and have
> also decried shale drilling for NG based on water table consequences.
> Anybody notice the ban on windmills over most of the western states
> until the effect on the Prairie Grouse is evaluated?
>
> So, we keep burning coal and exploding gasoline. Maybe the OPEC nations
> and mother Russia ARE smarter than US.

Supply Glut Pressuring Natural Gas

On Aug 31 10:03 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> Natural gas
> at these prices is another way of buying oil at $18 a barrel, with
> less pollution.

Really? Wow, I had no idea they could take natural gas and make gasoline, diesel and jet fuel out of it.

How Natural Gas Can Save the U.S. Economy

Art005 -- I'm taking storage efficiency into account.

We know that the Chevy Volt will be rated EPA about 230 mpg and the Nissan Leaf over 300 equivalent mpg. The most efficient CNG vehicle comes in at __ mpg? There's no way no how any CNG vehicle is going to be over 50 mpg. CNG is not in the same ballbark.

The problem is the internal combustion engine. It has too many moving parts, too much internal friction. It's an old technology that's served us well but it's time to move on.

The free market is answering the EV vs. CNG question: automakers are rushing new electric vehicles to market but are not rushing CNG. I think it's because the engineers know that electric cars are the next quantum leap in energy efficiency and low cost operation.

I say develop nat gas, nuke, coal, wind, etc. and make lots of electricity and use it to power small urban cars. Farmers, ranchers, big rigs, etc. can continue to use gasoline, diesel and CNG.


On Aug 12 11:56 AM ART005 wrote:

> Elliot, you are not taking into account the cost of the battery for
> a full service elec. car with on board generator. You are refering
> to a misleading definition of efficiency based only on electrons.
> If you include storage efficiency costs the picture changes dramatically!!

How Natural Gas Can Save the U.S. Economy

M Fitzsimmons wrote >>>Elliot: you are against natural gas transportation because it is not efficient enough for you? ok, well, answer me these questions:
1) do you think US addiction to foreign oil is a problem?
2) do you think the US will go under if it keeps importing 60-70% of its oil in an era where worldwide oil supply won't keep pace with worldwide oil demand?
if you agree to 1) and 2), then please tell me how the US will signficantly reduce it oil imports *without* using natural gas transportation. <<<<

You might want to read my original post again. Yes, I think US addiction to foreign oil is a problem. Yes I am all for developing domestic natural gas. However, I think it has been demonstrated repeatedly that less energy is wasted if natural gas is used to make electricity, and then that electricity used to power electric cars, than putting NG directly into NG-powered vehicles.

If we are serious about maximizing the use of domestic energy sources, whether it be nuke or NG, then a key component of any strategy will have to be the phase out of the internal combustion engine for passenger cars.

How Natural Gas Can Save the U.S. Economy

I agree it should be national policy to consume more domestic natural gas and less imported oil. I disagree that natural gas transportation is the way to get there.

As I've posted on SA before, the problem is that all internal combustion engines are relatively inefficient. Depending on which study you quote, anywhere from 60% to 84% of the energy you put into internal combustion is wasted on heat and internal friction losses. What a shame it would be to take our precious natural gas reserves and waste most of it out of our collective tailpipes.

Electric motors are the most efficient motors known (actually, the bicycle is the most efficient motor known to man, but let's not go there) and approximately 75% of the energy put into an electric motor rolls the car forward, and only 25% is wasted on friction losses.

More efficiency is gained when natural gas is burned for electricity. Modern combined cycle generation plants are very efficient at converting gas to electricity -- combined cycle means the waste heat of the first turbine is captured to make steam and drive a second set of turbines. And so at the end of the day a fleet of electric cars, with electricity generated by nat gas will always trump nat gas cars that burn gas direct. The only barrier that remains is improving battery technology to increase range and decrease charging times.

The 'Green' Side of Natural Gas

On Jul 30 04:22 AM Freya wrote:

> If the CFTC curbs trading, how will it impact any Energy market?

By making it better. The CFTC position limits will not hamper the legitimate energy professional who needs to hedge or swap; instead, they will be targeted at the purely financial speculators who are trying to make a fast buck and who never intend to actually produce or consume physical energy.

Futures markets are vital in balancing the risks and needs of wholesale producers and consumers of any commodity. It's very important to control and limit the influence of hedge funds and hot money, so they don't distort the market and upset the equilibrium of supply and demand.

It's incredibly obvious that oil and gas hit new highs in 2008 because hedge funds and speculators bid up the prices. This, in turn, encouraged the drillers to overcapitalize, drill and produce at a faster rate than we were consuming. That's why we have a natural gas glut today.

Natural Gas May Be Just the Solution for This Economy

Correct. That's why big rigs, construction equipment, tractors, etc. should remain diesel-powered.

Commuter cars should be electric, once we get battery technology improved. The beauty of electric auto power is that the electricity source is diversified -- it can come from nuclear, nat gas, hydro, solar, wind, etc.

Electric motors are miles ahead of internal combustion engines on efficiency. 75% of energy applied to electric motors propels the car forward and 25% is wasted. With internal combustion engines only 16% is converted to forward motion, the rest is wasted in mechanical losses and heat.


On Jul 21 10:23 AM Wisdom vs. Information wrote:

> NG has much less energy per volume than diesel

Natural Gas May Be Just the Solution for This Economy

Electric cars should be the goal. Electric motors are far more efficient than any gasoline, diesel, methanol or natural gas engine. The only barrier remaining that holds electric cars back are the batteries. Government and private industry should work to improve battery technology to reduce weight and improve range. Once that happens, then natural gas can be used for electrical generation, which in turn can be used to fuel and recharge electric cars. This is better than trying to retrofit all of our gasoline stations over to natural gas. With electricity, we already have a wholesale and retail distribution system in place.