Elliott

Natural Gas: Burdensome Inventories Could Offset Seasonal Demand

I'm surprised there is not an inverse or short natural gas ETF.

Why Did Natural Gas Spike?

The ambush of gas traders trying to short the UNG rollover was reported in a gas industry subscription-only newsletter, and confirmed in a later Bloomberg news story.


On Oct 06 05:47 AM Andy Abraham wrote:

> When do you know where there is an imbalance... over bought..over
> sold...

Why Did Natural Gas Spike?

No big mystery. We've seen this movie many times before in stocks and futures markets -- there was an imbalance of way too many traders on the short side playing the "obvious" UNG monthly rollover. When there's an imbalance all it takes is for a few bulls to light the kindling, then shorts buy to cover, the fire gets bigger, setting off more stop losses on the way up. The market never tolerates an imbalance and always finds a way to restore equilibrium.

Coal vs. Natural Gas: Which ETF Will Win the Battle?

Coal can lobby until the cows come home but that doesn't change the basic fact that nat gas is more economical than coal, especially when nat gas is under $6. That's why multiple utilities are converting power plants from coal to gas. Gas has a lower heat rate (fewer btu's needed per kWh of electricity generated). It's cheaper to transport gas by pipe than a bunch of coal by train. For the last 18 months coal has been losing this battle -- utilities have been voting with their feet and switching to gas just on economics. Even if coal wins some GHG cap'n'trade concessions it may not be enough to wrestle market share away from nat gas.