kevintx

24 Comments

    • Trading Closed-End Funds - An Update [view article]
      Discount / fees of 8 or more is a good value. Also some of the foreign CEFs have a bonus as the underlying securities are difficult or expensive to trade directly. Aug 05 10:02 AM
    • GT Solar Picks the Wrong Day To Go Public [view article]
      This IPO is remarkably broken, with sort of disorderly selling on Friday, its second day of trading. It fell to 9.3 or 44% below the IPO price before rebounding. The trigger was a major client LDK ordering from a competitor, compounding worsening sentiment in the solar sector and the recent poor general market. That's pretty panicky for this news, whoever was selling. The financial entities getting all the IPO might make for aggressive selling? Jul 26 07:17 AM
    • Is the SEC 'Rumorgate' Push a Waste of Time? [view article]
      Good points. Knowingly spreading false information for profit is wrong and should be penalized and the SEC bureaucracy should do that as possible, e.g. in the small fraction of cases with high dollar amounts and co-conspirators tattling. In other cases it could have a chilling effect on free speech and impede information flow. Rumors have power only insofar as they may be true. People are always going to have to weed out the BS.
      I agree about the uptick rule, not sure why it was discontinued given avalanche shorting tactics. Selling short does not have the consent of the shareholder whose shares are borrowed so should be considered and regulated separately.       Jul 16 09:33 AM
    • Is OPEC Killing Itself? [view article]
      The Ferrari calculation is too high by at least two orders of magnitude.
      WWI brought the League of Nations not the UN
      Do you think OPEC can open a valve and release a flood of oil. The easy oil is running out. Actually its still cheap which is why there are no electric cars already. You can drive a monster vehicle weighing over 2000 pounds across town for a dollar, crazy cheap. Its only a crisis now for the poor countries. OPEC is developing prospects but there is no vast untapped fields like Ghawar.       Apr 11 05:25 PM
    • Safety Data on Arena's Weight Loss Drug Could Pave Way for Good Partnership [view article]
      Lorcaserin is looking strong here. Other obesity drug candidates are having a hard time e.g. Merck's. Evolving standards for psychological side effects are raising the bar. Existing drug options are lacking. Increasing prevalence of obesity has been a stable long term trend.
      ARNA is also trading rather cheaply here, has a sizable cash reserve, and has other drugs in the pipeline. I'll stick with it.       Mar 27 04:59 PM
    • Market Outlook: Watch Out, the Signs Can Be Deceiving [view article]
      leh - great post, the bottom calling seems way premature. The financial stability risks are through the roof. Despite lower P/Es the risk/reward of stocks is still too high now. Bear Stearns forward P/E fell to 0.5. Sorry for the haircut Mr. Miller. An unknown but large part of earnings has been paper shuffling on a growing debt bubble, something near 40% of S&P 500 earnings from financial companies or financial subsidiarys. Millions of homedebtors are underwater on their mortgage and ready to walk. With massive leverage who knows where the next default will happen. Mar 23 02:49 PM
    • The Black Swan: A Fascinating, Albeit Infuriating, Read [view article]
      Guess you insulted the fanboi/poseur crowd lol Feb 14 02:28 PM
    • Is Synthesis Energy the Next 20x Bagger? [view article]
      Some more technical details on the process would have been nice. Feb 09 05:08 PM
    • Umpqua Holdings: Can the Free Cookies Last? [view article]
      The Northwest is likely just lagging a bit in its housing price declines and debt problems. The prices there are way too high. Feb 09 05:04 PM
    • Real Estate, Speculation & "Occupancy Fraud" [view article]
      Guess theres more excess housing now than there was excess fiber optic cables after the telecom boom. Maybe more people will have kids. Apart from Hispanics the population would be falling hard as well, we'd be looking at Japan bust II. Feb 08 03:57 PM
    • Chart Fun With the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index [view article]
      Outstanding article. If 65% of people are owning rather than renting, why not use some perhaps interest/tax adjusted Case-Shiller rather than owners-equivalent rent. The recent Fed cuts make more sense on that basis. Feb 07 07:15 PM
    • 6 Reasons the Market Should Bounce Here [view article]
      1. S&P 1325 support: possible
      2. Stochastics oversold: maybe, market down abt 18%
      3. Fed 0.5% cut not priced in: doubtful. Fed futures even some 0.75%. Not sure ARMs are tied to this if they would reset. This is a big cut though ~10% Fed model valuation jump of market.
      4. $150B stimulus: Last rebate $300 gave about 0.7% GDP boost to 2H 2001. Market kept sliding. Now it maybe $800, but still too uncertain right now.
      5. VIX overshoot: nope. now 27, hit ~30 August and November
      6. Less bad news: Dunno, still catching up on old bad news.

      The market has been too high for awhile.       Jan 21 09:09 PM
    • Percentage of Stocks Above Their 50-DMAs Finally Oversold [view article]
      Nice chart, looks like the market needs a month or so in the green or red zone before it moves back. Jan 19 04:44 PM
    • Bullish on Solar Energy, Bearish on Solar Stocks [view article]
      needs improvement with typos, out-of-date financials, mixing together unrelated concepts (polysi, CIGS, and multijunction 2-5 times efficiency of CdTe and mono/multicrystalline Si ?) Jan 14 01:19 PM
    • Why Is This Market Holding Up? [view article]
      The bursting of the housing bubble is driving the credit crunch. The thinking was that it was 'contained' to housing or even just to subprime and would not necessarily hurt stocks. The crunch effect mechanisms affecting overall corporate earnings are still not completely clear. The bond market has been spooked more so far, maybe they're just a little quicker on the uptake when it comes to overleveraged financial shenanigans. Jan 08 01:42 AM
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»