kevintx

The End of the Credit Crisis

nice fantasy

Santelli's Rant: A Watershed Moment?

> PS. Its not about the Fed, The Stimulus Package is Srictly in The
> Hands of the Treasury and the Current Administration.
>
>

Bernanke is running his own stimulus plan in the trillions, truly amazing amounts of money, lifetimes of earnings of millions of people. He may end up one of the most influential people in US history.

Trading Closed-End Funds - An Update

Discount / fees of 8 or more is a good value. Also some of the foreign CEFs have a bonus as the underlying securities are difficult or expensive to trade directly.

GT Solar Picks the Wrong Day To Go Public

This IPO is remarkably broken, with sort of disorderly selling on Friday, its second day of trading. It fell to 9.3 or 44% below the IPO price before rebounding. The trigger was a major client LDK ordering from a competitor, compounding worsening sentiment in the solar sector and the recent poor general market. That's pretty panicky for this news, whoever was selling. The financial entities getting all the IPO might make for aggressive selling?

Is the SEC 'Rumorgate' Push a Waste of Time?

Good points. Knowingly spreading false information for profit is wrong and should be penalized and the SEC bureaucracy should do that as possible, e.g. in the small fraction of cases with high dollar amounts and co-conspirators tattling. In other cases it could have a chilling effect on free speech and impede information flow. Rumors have power only insofar as they may be true. People are always going to have to weed out the BS.
I agree about the uptick rule, not sure why it was discontinued given avalanche shorting tactics. Selling short does not have the consent of the shareholder whose shares are borrowed so should be considered and regulated separately.

Is OPEC Killing Itself?

The Ferrari calculation is too high by at least two orders of magnitude.
WWI brought the League of Nations not the UN
Do you think OPEC can open a valve and release a flood of oil. The easy oil is running out. Actually its still cheap which is why there are no electric cars already. You can drive a monster vehicle weighing over 2000 pounds across town for a dollar, crazy cheap. Its only a crisis now for the poor countries. OPEC is developing prospects but there is no vast untapped fields like Ghawar.

Safety Data on Arena's Weight Loss Drug Could Pave Way for Good Partnership

Lorcaserin is looking strong here. Other obesity drug candidates are having a hard time e.g. Merck's. Evolving standards for psychological side effects are raising the bar. Existing drug options are lacking. Increasing prevalence of obesity has been a stable long term trend.
ARNA is also trading rather cheaply here, has a sizable cash reserve, and has other drugs in the pipeline. I'll stick with it.

Market Outlook: Watch Out, the Signs Can Be Deceiving

leh - great post, the bottom calling seems way premature. The financial stability risks are through the roof. Despite lower P/Es the risk/reward of stocks is still too high now. Bear Stearns forward P/E fell to 0.5. Sorry for the haircut Mr. Miller. An unknown but large part of earnings has been paper shuffling on a growing debt bubble, something near 40% of S&P 500 earnings from financial companies or financial subsidiarys. Millions of homedebtors are underwater on their mortgage and ready to walk. With massive leverage who knows where the next default will happen.

The Black Swan: A Fascinating, Albeit Infuriating, Read

Guess you insulted the fanboi/poseur crowd lol

Is Synthesis Energy the Next 20x Bagger?

Some more technical details on the process would have been nice.

Umpqua Holdings: Can the Free Cookies Last?

The Northwest is likely just lagging a bit in its housing price declines and debt problems. The prices there are way too high.

Real Estate, Speculation & "Occupancy Fraud"

Guess theres more excess housing now than there was excess fiber optic cables after the telecom boom. Maybe more people will have kids. Apart from Hispanics the population would be falling hard as well, we'd be looking at Japan bust II.

Chart Fun With the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Outstanding article. If 65% of people are owning rather than renting, why not use some perhaps interest/tax adjusted Case-Shiller rather than owners-equivalent rent. The recent Fed cuts make more sense on that basis.

6 Reasons the Market Should Bounce Here

1. S&P 1325 support: possible
2. Stochastics oversold: maybe, market down abt 18%
3. Fed 0.5% cut not priced in: doubtful. Fed futures even some 0.75%. Not sure ARMs are tied to this if they would reset. This is a big cut though ~10% Fed model valuation jump of market.
4. $150B stimulus: Last rebate $300 gave about 0.7% GDP boost to 2H 2001. Market kept sliding. Now it maybe $800, but still too uncertain right now.
5. VIX overshoot: nope. now 27, hit ~30 August and November
6. Less bad news: Dunno, still catching up on old bad news.

The market has been too high for awhile.

Percentage of Stocks Above Their 50-DMAs Finally Oversold

Nice chart, looks like the market needs a month or so in the green or red zone before it moves back.