kevintx

Bullish on Solar Energy, Bearish on Solar Stocks

needs improvement with typos, out-of-date financials, mixing together unrelated concepts (polysi, CIGS, and multijunction 2-5 times efficiency of CdTe and mono/multicrystalline Si ?)

First Solar Vulnerable to a Tellurium Shortage?

well the 20x increase in Te price was 'discussed previously' anyway Te demand appears super inelastic

You mean less ambitious? I am glad you think polysilicon stays strong, I have some LDK (no FSLR either way) and hope there is no lemming like rush to overproduction

whatever the OP motivation the technical details of the debate have turned out to be intriguing

First Solar Vulnerable to a Tellurium Shortage?

Nice reference to Morgan et al, they also mention

"If CdTe took over even a small portion of the market, we would then likely see resource constraints and the kind of material cost increases discussed previously." [20x]
- How is it ambitious to anticipate solar silicon costs are likely headed down?

"For emerging thin film technologies such as CdTe and CIGS
we derived cost data based on conversations with suppliers (First Solar), public disclosures, and projections from various industry analysts."
- would like more details about costs!