kevintx

6 Reasons the Market Should Bounce Here

1. S&P 1325 support: possible
2. Stochastics oversold: maybe, market down abt 18%
3. Fed 0.5% cut not priced in: doubtful. Fed futures even some 0.75%. Not sure ARMs are tied to this if they would reset. This is a big cut though ~10% Fed model valuation jump of market.
4. $150B stimulus: Last rebate $300 gave about 0.7% GDP boost to 2H 2001. Market kept sliding. Now it maybe $800, but still too uncertain right now.
5. VIX overshoot: nope. now 27, hit ~30 August and November
6. Less bad news: Dunno, still catching up on old bad news.

The market has been too high for awhile.