Check_Your_Ego

7 Myths About Gold Debunked: Bubble Warning; $600 Target?

"Say there's a 10% chance of each happening. That adds up to a 40% chance of a big gold spike"

It all add up to only a 10% chance... not 40%. There is only a 10% chance - each on their own. There is no adding up of the numbers.

Just thought I would let you know that you are overstating by a factor of four in your personal financial strategy.


On Jul 20 09:29 AM Roger Knights wrote:

> There are also fundamentals that say there's a possibility of a big
> jump:
>
> 1. War or international incidents (take a pick from several candidates).
>
>
> 2. Asian banks & sovereign wealth funds slightly increase the
> percentage of their gold reserves.
>
> 3. European banking system crisis.
>
> 4. Many state and municipal bond defaults in the US, weakening confidence
> in the dollar.
>
> Say there's a 10% chance of each happening. That adds up to a 40%
> chance of a big gold spike.
>
> On the downside, there's now more of a floor under gold, because
> of an increasing tendency for conservative funds to include gold
> in their portfolios, for diversification. Gold was a better beta-blocker
> in 2008 than any other asset class. And Asian central banks would,
> I suspect, be happy buyers at under $900/oz.

The Great Dollar Pump of 2008: A Doomed Central Bank Intervention

Sorry, but the use of the word manipulation has disqualified this article from entering my sphere of analysis. Stop making excuses for your own mistakes!

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

Cries of manipulation are another way of saying... "I have done a lousy job at anticipating the trend in gold, silver and the metals stocks and my ego will not allow me to honestly evaluate my stategy and analysis." So sad. It did not have to be this way. The hui is back to where it was in late 2005. The better part of three years has gone by and the buy and hold crowd has little to nothing to show for it. In fact, the tendency to get really excited and buy during blow off rallies has likely left many sector investors in the red and wishing that the fantasy manipulators would stop messing with them... Use your head and not your heart the next time you are given an opportunity to sell when the specs are running things above sustainable trends, such as the springs of 2006 and 2008. Perhaps the spring of 2010 will be your next chance. Leave your pride out of it!

The Disconnect Between Supply and Demand in Gold and Silver Markets, Part II

Gold went up in a rush of speculative buying (along with many other markets and commodities) and then fell back by a reasonable amount as some of that speculative money came out of the gold market. Now it is bottoming, but it might need to correct $50.00 or more below the recent lows in order to burn out the remaining specs. No manipulation. Just good old-fashioned market factors at work. The author says not to use Kitco... that you might not get your gold for 20 years or more. That is a joke. You want gold coins? Go to EBay and bid on one or wait until the still plentiful supply of gold bullion can be shipped to coin fabrication centers and created for the U.S. mint and others. Coin demand is tiny compared to factors such as producer dehedging, central bank activity and of course the absolute collpase in Indian demand earlier this year. Those factors will play a much bigger role in deciding where gold is one to two years from now - which is all any serious gold bull should really care about... If you are a short-term trader and not a serious bull then you should stop using baseless manipulation accusations to cover your recent timing mistakes.