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It all add up to only a 10% chance... not 40%. There is only a 10% chance - each on their own. There is no adding up of the numbers.

Just thought I would let you know that you are overstating by a factor of four in your personal financial strategy.


On Jul 20 09:29 AM Roger Knights wrote:

> There are also fundamentals that say there's a possibility of a big
> jump:
>
> 1. War or international incidents (take a pick from several candidates).
>
>
> 2. Asian banks & sovereign wealth funds slightly increase the
> percentage of their gold reserves.
>
> 3. European banking system crisis.
>
> 4. Many state and municipal bond defaults in the US, weakening confidence
> in the dollar.
>
> Say there's a 10% chance of each happening. That adds up to a 40%
> chance of a big gold spike.
>
> On the downside, there's now more of a floor under gold, because
> of an increasing tendency for conservative funds to include gold
> in their portfolios, for diversification. Gold was a better beta-blocker
> in 2008 than any other asset class. And Asian central banks would,
> I suspect, be happy buyers at under $900/oz.]]> Mon, 20 Jul 2009 10:23:18 -0400
It all add up to only a 10% chance... not 40%. There is only a 10% chance - each on their own. There is no adding up of the numbers.

Just thought I would let you know that you are overstating by a factor of four in your personal financial strategy.


On Jul 20 09:29 AM Roger Knights wrote:

> There are also fundamentals that say there's a possibility of a big
> jump:
>
> 1. War or international incidents (take a pick from several candidates).
>
>
> 2. Asian banks & sovereign wealth funds slightly increase the
> percentage of their gold reserves.
>
> 3. European banking system crisis.
>
> 4. Many state and municipal bond defaults in the US, weakening confidence
> in the dollar.
>
> Say there's a 10% chance of each happening. That adds up to a 40%
> chance of a big gold spike.
>
> On the downside, there's now more of a floor under gold, because
> of an increasing tendency for conservative funds to include gold
> in their portfolios, for diversification. Gold was a better beta-blocker
> in 2008 than any other asset class. And Asian central banks would,
> I suspect, be happy buyers at under $900/oz.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94314/comments?source=feed#comment-249110 249110 Tue, 09 Sep 2008 08:37:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94361/comments?source=feed#comment-248747 248747 Mon, 08 Sep 2008 17:10:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92478/comments?source=feed#comment-238444 238444 Mon, 25 Aug 2008 10:57:02 -0400