Check_Your_Ego

7 Myths About Gold Debunked: Bubble Warning; $600 Target?

"Say there's a 10% chance of each happening. That adds up to a 40% chance of a big gold spike"

It all add up to only a 10% chance... not 40%. There is only a 10% chance - each on their own. There is no adding up of the numbers.

Just thought I would let you know that you are overstating by a factor of four in your personal financial strategy.


On Jul 20 09:29 AM Roger Knights wrote:

> There are also fundamentals that say there's a possibility of a big
> jump:
>
> 1. War or international incidents (take a pick from several candidates).
>
>
> 2. Asian banks & sovereign wealth funds slightly increase the
> percentage of their gold reserves.
>
> 3. European banking system crisis.
>
> 4. Many state and municipal bond defaults in the US, weakening confidence
> in the dollar.
>
> Say there's a 10% chance of each happening. That adds up to a 40%
> chance of a big gold spike.
>
> On the downside, there's now more of a floor under gold, because
> of an increasing tendency for conservative funds to include gold
> in their portfolios, for diversification. Gold was a better beta-blocker
> in 2008 than any other asset class. And Asian central banks would,
> I suspect, be happy buyers at under $900/oz.