Ricknplano

Toyota Tests and Rejects Lithium-Ion Batteries for the Prius

Same song, different verse. Lithium is right for app's where weight and size are critical and cost is not. HEV's will rapidly grow in use, full EV's will not - until significant improvement in battery tech and lower costs materialize.

PHEVs and EVs: Plugging into a Lump of Coal

Government incentives to jump start new technologies is an established practice worldwide and, in general, works well. But governments sometimes encourage the wrong technology since by definition it is an area of evolving knowledge. I appreciate the recent broad range of battery grants issued by the DOE to hedge their bets.

When subsidizing industries at the level of customer purchase the government should be equally non-specific. Giving a $7,500 subsidy to buy a pure EV but no subsidy at all to buy a Prius does not accomplish the duel goals of maximizing reduction of gas consumption and maximum reduction of CO2 as John eloquently argues. Giving manufacturers and researchers help to develop products can be good, but then let the market decide what vehicle makes sense without market distortions at the consumer level that direct purchases that do not make economic sense without the incentives.

If the goal of the customer level incentives is instead to maximize the incentive to build better batteries, then the subsidy makes more sense but again can be better accomplished at the research level.

A clear explanation of why any subsidy exists can allow clear debate. John makes an excellent argument for use of lots of small subsidies (lots of Prius) rather than a few large subsidies (Volts) if the goal is energy and CO2 reduction. If the goal is better batteries then probably research grants make sense and no consumer level incentives should exist at all. Let the market decide if the technology is ready for mass adoption.

Vinod Khosla's Stance on the Future of Lithium-ion Batteries

Searcher sounds like he may have an economics background and the economics, as John points out repeatedly, is critical to any technological success. Don echoes that comment from the aspect of a lithium battery manufacturer with first hand knowledge of the advances taking place in his company and industry. I appreciate their insight.

The comment of Franklin76 is a credentialled confirmation of the same analysis John has been giving us for months. Welcome to the conversation.

There may soon be new developments with NiMH. A Bosch-Samsung venture purchased Cobasys from Chevron/Energy Conversion Devices. Bosch-Samsung created a joint venture called SB Li Motive to move forward with the NiMH technology that has languished under Chevron ownership.

There are new advances being made with capacitors as well. Since capacitors have a different storage/discharge profile than batteries there appears to be opportunity combining those two approaches using advances in energy management technology such as that created by Tesla and Ricardo, Inc. which have become possible with new computer hardware and software.

Don points out that there are great technologies right now. The successful companies will be those that can integrate the best battery/capacitor/system management technologies with a careful eye on the economics appropriate for the intended use and user.

Today I read that Toyota will not be able to meet their production goals (and demand) for Prius this year due to battery production constraints. I am sure Toyota is actively considering battery alternatives even as I write.

Grid Based Energy Storage: Notes, Questions and Heresies from Infocast Storage Week

John,

First, thank you another excellent article. Keep'em coming.

Second, I am surprised you take the time to respond in detail to some of these comments but kudos to you for taking that effort.

Third, I too would like to see Don and Speculawyer do a series of articles. I know Don has an excellent product and a lot of knowledge in the field. Speculawyer needs his own forum and teaming with Don could allow him to clarify and focus his energies.

Finally, the right side of my brain wants to believe Axion will produce a battery with huge market acceptance but the left side of my brain says where are the third party verifications? Don has third party verification for his excellent LiFe battery from Sandi Labs. CSIRO has the 100,000 mile Honda test report. Firefly has a battery you can buy. Where is the third party verification for Axion? How much will the battery, or even the anode insert, cost, wholesale and retail? How do we know it is price competitive with NiMH or lithium? So until I see an actual battery, or third party verification, and some actual pricing information that suggests the price/performance ratio is as favorable as I hope it is, I have to wait to invest.

On Oil's Sesquicentennial, The Dream Becomes a Nightmare

I like the comments as much as the articles now. Great bunch of followers you have, John. Couple of links for you. these are about ETV Motors in Israel. Quercus invested $12 million with them. One article below mentions their proprietary $200/KwH lithium battery.

earth2tech.com/2009/04.../

www.autobloggreen.com/...

On Oil's Sesquicentennial, The Dream Becomes a Nightmare

Interesting new direction. While I think you overestimate the price of oil in the short term (we have this pesky recession reducing demand), over the long term demand for oil will outpace supply. Alternatives like biodiesel, cellulosic ethanol, substitution with natural gas, etc. will grow but not fast enough to offset rising prices. So the best defence for consumers will be more energy efficient homes and cars, e.g. hybrids. And hybrids means more batteries which leads us right back to your core specialty. How convenient. I look forward to more.

How Growing HEV Markets Will Impact Battery Manufacturing Revenues

John,

Many thanks for your continuing wisdom in the area of energy storage investment opportunities.

The Plug In Vehicle Scam

John,

John Kennedy once said, "some people enjoy the comfort of an opinion without the discomfort of thought".

Thank you for your excellent thought used to support your opinions on energy storage issues.

The Plug In Vehicle Scam

John,

Well written and nice mix of metaphor with the reference to the Cardiff Giant and allusion to the famous phrase "sucker born every minute".

I hope you are wrong but believe you are right about the enduring carbon based fuels economy. Even though the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, the facts will eventually prevail.

Solar Panels and Parking Lots: An Extraordinary Dual Use

Rooftop installations on big box stores is another double value application for solar panels. The shade reduces solar heat gain thus lowering AC costs at the same time if makes power and this saize structure is large enough to make it economic (as solar panel installations go anyway).

Lead Acid Batteries: How Cheap Beat Cool at Google

I listened yesterday to an interview with Jeff DePew, CEO, of Imara Corp., a lithium battery producer ( imaracorp.com). He answered some very specific questions regarding cost. First he said high quality reliable OEM lithium batteries are available in the $1,000 per Kwh range with quantity pricing at no less than $800 per Kwh, the price he believes GM is paying for its Volt battery. He also said he thinks the Volt supplier may lose money at $800 per Kwh. Second, most of the cost of lithium batteries is the materials cost, not fabrication or labor, so Mr. DePew sees no major price reductions without, "a new periodic table of elements". He said that predictions of $500 per Kwh lithium batteries are not reasonable in his opinion because the materials alone cost more than that. He mentioned that besides lithium there is lots of copper used in the production of lithium batteries, the price of which is not likely to go down significantly from current levels .

The comments of Mr. DePew seem to support most of what Mr. Peterson has been saying about the relative cost of technologies. I think the new generation of LAB using carbon anodes (Firefly) and capacitor type hybrids (CSIRO and Axion) will all be huge success for storage where price is key and weight/size are less important. Lithium will rule where weight and size are critical and price is less so. The interview can be heard at www.evcast.com.

Energy Storage: Chrysler - A123 Alliance Likely to Spark Interest in Sector

Juan,

I follow John's articles and I get the impression that John is critical of the cost of lithium, not the technology, and is skeptical of projected cost reductions and market penetrations. Lithium is without a doubt the best technology where size and weight are critical and cost is secondary, like watch batteries or laptop computer batteries. For applications like cars, buses, trains, or electrical grid backup, wind power smoothing and backup, etc., where cost is critical and size/weight are secondary I sense that John favors existing low cost battery and flywheel technologies and emerging new lead acid technologies like those from Axion, CSIRO and Firefly. His is an informed approach and his arguments make sense. I am sure he can defend himself quite adequately, but as a reader I take issue with your comment which seems to question the integrity of his arguments. Of course he would like the market to prove him correct and make his stocks go up, but then don't we all.

Lead Carbon Batteries: A Game Changer for Alt Energy Storage - Part II

Matt,

I researched the recent MIT report in some detail. While it is excellent news for lithium technology and for us all by extension, it is still lithium (expensive) and so the same arguments versus lead apply. On the margin it might make lithium more reasonable a choice, but in cases where the cost benefits support a low cost battery the LAB will still prevail. Now, if you read something about cutting costs by a factor of a hundred, then we have a story.

Rick

Lead Carbon Batteries: A Game Changer for Alt Energy Storage - Part II

John,

Excellent post. Thank you for going into detail on some to the questions that have concerned me as well as Mr. Smith.

I am looking forward to the next earnings report and conference call. Maybe the company has some insight into the selling pressure on the stock. Could that be related to the Mega-C stockholders?

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

John,

I enjoy starting my Monday with a good read courtesy of your active mind and busy fingers. Upcoming earnings conference calls will allow opportunity to ask questions of company officials. Hoepfully we will learn more about specific company plans regarding the stimulus grants.