Ricknplano

How Growing HEV Markets Will Impact Battery Manufacturing Revenues

John,

Many thanks for your continuing wisdom in the area of energy storage investment opportunities.

Lead Acid Batteries: How Cheap Beat Cool at Google

I listened yesterday to an interview with Jeff DePew, CEO, of Imara Corp., a lithium battery producer ( imaracorp.com). He answered some very specific questions regarding cost. First he said high quality reliable OEM lithium batteries are available in the $1,000 per Kwh range with quantity pricing at no less than $800 per Kwh, the price he believes GM is paying for its Volt battery. He also said he thinks the Volt supplier may lose money at $800 per Kwh. Second, most of the cost of lithium batteries is the materials cost, not fabrication or labor, so Mr. DePew sees no major price reductions without, "a new periodic table of elements". He said that predictions of $500 per Kwh lithium batteries are not reasonable in his opinion because the materials alone cost more than that. He mentioned that besides lithium there is lots of copper used in the production of lithium batteries, the price of which is not likely to go down significantly from current levels .

The comments of Mr. DePew seem to support most of what Mr. Peterson has been saying about the relative cost of technologies. I think the new generation of LAB using carbon anodes (Firefly) and capacitor type hybrids (CSIRO and Axion) will all be huge success for storage where price is key and weight/size are less important. Lithium will rule where weight and size are critical and price is less so. The interview can be heard at www.evcast.com.

Energy Storage: Chrysler - A123 Alliance Likely to Spark Interest in Sector

Juan,

I follow John's articles and I get the impression that John is critical of the cost of lithium, not the technology, and is skeptical of projected cost reductions and market penetrations. Lithium is without a doubt the best technology where size and weight are critical and cost is secondary, like watch batteries or laptop computer batteries. For applications like cars, buses, trains, or electrical grid backup, wind power smoothing and backup, etc., where cost is critical and size/weight are secondary I sense that John favors existing low cost battery and flywheel technologies and emerging new lead acid technologies like those from Axion, CSIRO and Firefly. His is an informed approach and his arguments make sense. I am sure he can defend himself quite adequately, but as a reader I take issue with your comment which seems to question the integrity of his arguments. Of course he would like the market to prove him correct and make his stocks go up, but then don't we all.

Lead Carbon Batteries: A Game Changer for Alt Energy Storage - Part II

Matt,

I researched the recent MIT report in some detail. While it is excellent news for lithium technology and for us all by extension, it is still lithium (expensive) and so the same arguments versus lead apply. On the margin it might make lithium more reasonable a choice, but in cases where the cost benefits support a low cost battery the LAB will still prevail. Now, if you read something about cutting costs by a factor of a hundred, then we have a story.

Rick

Lead Carbon Batteries: A Game Changer for Alt Energy Storage - Part II

John,

Excellent post. Thank you for going into detail on some to the questions that have concerned me as well as Mr. Smith.

I am looking forward to the next earnings report and conference call. Maybe the company has some insight into the selling pressure on the stock. Could that be related to the Mega-C stockholders?

Why Pure Play Energy Storage Companies Could Double for Investors

John,

I enjoy starting my Monday with a good read courtesy of your active mind and busy fingers. Upcoming earnings conference calls will allow opportunity to ask questions of company officials. Hoepfully we will learn more about specific company plans regarding the stimulus grants.

DOE Report: Lithium-ion Batteries Are Not Ready for Prime Time

John,

Thanks for your article. Some good comments above but the tone of some comments was more argumentative than instructive which serves no one really.

Renzo, my kudos to anyone who uses both apotheosis and Arrhenius equation in the same comment. Also you are right to mention thorium fission as the future of nuclear. Others above are also right to mention the long lead for nuclear plants. Together these two arguments tell me to start now on safer nuclear and also to implement shorter term solutions like smart grids, wind and solar (with storage systems to smooth the supply) and CNG and even coal where necessary.

I will also share a fact I recently learned about natural gas. While it is a clean burning fuel, it is not such a clean fuel to access. Here in the Dallas Ft Worth area we are in the midst of a drilling boom into what is called the Barnett Shale. Recently the EPA announced that the methane and CO2 emissions from the gas wells in the area now exceed the emissions from all the vehicles in this area of over 6 million people. That was news to me for what I thought was a more green alternative to coal and oil. I am not sure if those emissions end once the drilling is completed or if that is an ongoing issue with gas wells. Perhaps other readers can educate me.

All of us want to be green if reasonable and feasible. We will disagree about what exactly is reasonable and feasible, to an extent, but John is right to point out that few of us will be economic martyrs if the cost of lithium is substantially above that of a lead alternative. Axion, CSIRO and Firefly all have good LAB alternatives coming to market that will (probably) find their respective niches regardless of lead content.

Questions about this industry that nag me remind me of Donald Rumsfeld when he said, "We know what we know and we know what we don't know. What worries me are those things we don't know that we don't know". By that I mean there are constant efforts to improve all battery and capacitor technologies. None of the technologies are standing still. There could be an announcement tomorrow that makes my conclusions today obsolete. While the technological changes may not change radically or swiftly, I just do not know what I don't know about this industry. With time I may be more comfortable in my knowledge level. That is one reason I read these postings and one reason I have yet to invest heavily. I want to see sales and performance charts and warranty claims data and profit projections from these new companies with new ideas. As John has so elequently argued, manufacturing and marketing a profitable product is a lot different than a lab report. And while I share much of John's enthusiasm for his former employer, my desire for such proof goes as much for Axion as it does for any lithium manufacturer.

I also wonder about the intellectual property of Axion versus that of Firefly and CSIRO. They seem to be following the same general idea of substituting carbon (the more surface area the better) for lead in the anode of the battery and then trying also to improve the cathode. Improving the cathode seems to be more challenging. To what extent does the IP of Axion, for example, protect it from challenges by its LAB competition, in particular that of CSIRO and its U.S. licensee, East Penn? Could CSIRO have priority IP claims that may stifle Axion at some point? Will Firefly prove to have a better design once they perfect their carbon cathode design?

I have more questions than answers and welcome comments from anyone with insight into these matters.

How to Determine Value of Alternative Energy Stocks

Hi John,

As I read your article I felt I was reading a well reasoned interesting article with caveats about investors using the information only to assist, not to determine, investment selection. I have enjoyed and learned from your articles and I understand your bias towards Axion which is not without merit.

Long ago I wrote a little saying, With people infinite patience is next to infinite wisdom. If it helps, keep that in mind when your get inflammatory criticism. I appreciate your thoughts as do most readers. Please keep it up.

Will the Audacious Bailouts for Alternative Energy Happen?

John,

Excellent comment about EREV. Dean Kamen, inventor of the Segway, hydroflex irrigation pump, water filtration devices, homechoice dialysis , and many other world changing devices has chosen to use a stirling engine in combination with an electric motor for an EREV he built for himself. Mr. Kamen is one of the smartest inventors in the world so his decision to use a constant output stirling engine and EREV design versus any other design puts you in good company.

Rick

Will the Audacious Bailouts for Alternative Energy Happen?

John,

Whoever made the quote it is inspirational and was well used in your comments above.

In Texas we pay from $0.12 - $0.18 per Kwh (yes, ouch!). So from my perspective you were indeed much too gentle on the economics of EV's.

As to HEV's, there is some merit as the Prius has demonstrated. There is an interesting after market manufacturer, Poulsen Hybrids at www.poulsenhybrid.com/ who would be an excellent niche market for Axion batteries. I sent an email to Axion suggesting Axion sales rep's might want to contact Ulrik Poulsen but received no response. Maybe he is too small a potential player for their interest. But he has ambitious plans and they are a good fit.

Cleantech: The Sixth Industrial Revolution

John,

Might I add that the stocks that make one money are not always the stocks you expect to make money. Remember, markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Since markets are made of individual decisions, some of the persons who regularly post comments should make it clear why markets remain irrational in spite of evidence to the contrary. As you have said, you can explain it for them but you can not understand it for them. Let us hope that the best companies actually do win. Best wishes for the new year.

Rick

Cleantech: The Sixth Industrial Revolution

John (aka Battman),

Yes, your ability to explain yourself has risen remarkably and I think your depth of knowledge has risen as well, as you consider and respond to comments. The comments have improved as well, e.g. Mil Ovan et al.

As always, thanks for sharing your insight.

Rick

Alternative Energy Storage Needs to Take Baby Steps Before It Can Run

John,

Happy holidays and best wishes to you for the new year. Another excellent article. Thank you.

Alternative Energy Storage: Cheap Will Beat Cool

John,

Nice article as usual. Your last article was the best I have seen you write and I appreciate the global overview it gave. You might mention in this and subsequent articles that the storage competitors are not all public companies.

I listened to John Granville on the recent conference call, as I am sure you did as well, and I was pleased to hear how up beat he sounded. I think things are happening nicely there. However, I believe it is still too soon to invest due to the large number of shares outstanding and the need to get a huge buildup in sales before the share value goes up appreciably.

Thanks again for your efforts and your articles.

Rising Tides in Alternative Energy Storage

John,

Do the folks at AXPW consider the new UltraBattery from Csiro in Australia to infringe upon their patents? It seems to be a similar concept with similar cost/benefit and uses but I do not know enough about the design to know if it infringes on the patents.