Ricknplano

PHEVs and EVs: Plugging into a Lump of Coal

Government incentives to jump start new technologies is an established practice worldwide and, in general, works well. But governments sometimes encourage the wrong technology since by definition it is an area of evolving knowledge. I appreciate the recent broad range of battery grants issued by the DOE to hedge their bets.

When subsidizing industries at the level of customer purchase the government should be equally non-specific. Giving a $7,500 subsidy to buy a pure EV but no subsidy at all to buy a Prius does not accomplish the duel goals of maximizing reduction of gas consumption and maximum reduction of CO2 as John eloquently argues. Giving manufacturers and researchers help to develop products can be good, but then let the market decide what vehicle makes sense without market distortions at the consumer level that direct purchases that do not make economic sense without the incentives.

If the goal of the customer level incentives is instead to maximize the incentive to build better batteries, then the subsidy makes more sense but again can be better accomplished at the research level.

A clear explanation of why any subsidy exists can allow clear debate. John makes an excellent argument for use of lots of small subsidies (lots of Prius) rather than a few large subsidies (Volts) if the goal is energy and CO2 reduction. If the goal is better batteries then probably research grants make sense and no consumer level incentives should exist at all. Let the market decide if the technology is ready for mass adoption.

How Growing HEV Markets Will Impact Battery Manufacturing Revenues

John,

Many thanks for your continuing wisdom in the area of energy storage investment opportunities.

Opportunities in Energy Storage Stocks

Thank you for another excellent article. As relates to Axion, you mention a marketing focus on industrial replacement batteries. I would also expect a market niche particularly appropriate for a battery with long cycle life and fast recharge ability would be garbage and delivery trucks with regenerative breaking. These vehicles do not have weight or size critical requirements (removing two of the primary lithium advantages) and the cost advantage versus lithium lies with PbC. Traditional lead acid batteries do not have enough energy density or power and do not recharge fast enough and have shorter lives in this kind of harsh use environment. Even Firefly carbon foam does not have near the cycle life and do not re-charge nearly as easily as PbC.

Besides the industrial replacement market, where do you see the best opportunities for the PbC technology?