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  • The Coming Depression: See It Clearly Through Historical Eyes [View article]
    Pre 1971, money was tied to gold. Not the case now. The governments can now inflate as much as they like. What we get since then is not a depression, we get stagflation instead.
    Feb 23 07:52 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Why The Recent Drop Is Unjustified [View article]
    Samsung just hiked the price of some crucial components they supply to Apple by 20%.

    It was a warning. They can do it again any time they want to.

    Apple's suppliers want in on their revenue. Watch Apple's margins collapse. Watch their competitors eat into their market share with cheaper and better devices. Again, margin compression. Watch the E in P/E fall.

    Apple already peaked. Hope you got out at the top.
    Nov 13 05:48 AM | 19 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Would Be Dead Without Microsoft [View article]
    The battle ground has moved beyond the hardware or even the operating system. It isn't even ecosystems.

    It's not Samsung that's the problem. It's Google.

    The problem is services. Everybody knows handsets are commoditised already. 90% of the handsets out there are functionally and internally identical to one another. So you're not going to make money in the future only from the handset.

    You go Android? You provide Google services. Simple as that. Samsung/HTC et al have a *huge* problem coming up. They provide a commodity handset on razor margins, Google provides the services and takes a fat profit. You're going to see more and more squealing from Samsung on this front. See their Bada OS and Wave platform phones as examples. Then there's Tizen, they're already making noises about getting away from Android.

    This is why Nokia are ramping up music, maps, reading and whatever else they are doing. They managed to squeeze a partnership from MS on service sharing, which is not normal MS behaviour, no? Not historically anyway.

    IBM were the first to really push the hardware/services model after the PC revolution destroyed their desktop margins. Apple ran with it in the mobile space, very successfully.
    Feb 13 01:52 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: Will The Fortune Shine Again? [View article]
    "Will The Fortune Shine Again?"

    Yes. Long NOK already.

    I suspect that NOK has learned the divide/conquer lesson of having hundreds of devices. They'll limit their releases far more than they used to. I'm not sure we should expect anything more in 2013 beyond what they pushed in MWC. They need to recoup R&D, tooling, marketing costs on the existing devices. Just need to get the phones out there.

    Note, the only way the Chinese manufacturers can get $100 Android to work is through government subsidy. Android is simply too heavy and just doesn't run on $100 worth of hardware. Neither does Windows 8 BTW, which is why Microsoft is going with Huawei on the real cheap devices. Huawei and ZTE are subsidised... Now this is a risk for them in the US and EU markets because they are being accused of product dumping. NOK on the other hand really does have an OS which really can run on $100 hardware with Asha and competes successfully with Android on the low end.

    I've said this before but I think their Asha platform and their conversion of their "dumb phone" customers to Asha is what we should really be watching. Big numbers there.
    Mar 12 02:47 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's New Strategy: Rely On Apple's License Revenue And Dispose Of Remaining Operations [View article]
    You're sounding a little petulant.

    Nokia have some truly innovative (as opposed to Apple's lack of same) devices on the way imminently. They have some world class services backing up those devices which can change and improve people's interaction with the world. Their future is brighter looking than their past.

    You may advise clients to drive with their eyes firmly glued to the rear view mirror, I personally wouldn't pay for that quality of service.

    (long NOK)
    Sep 27 05:57 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Goes Big With The Lumia 625 [View article]

    If that apple photo is real pre production kit, and not just an internal demo, then that was a *lot* quicker than I expected. Nokia just won the war.

    Apple are following, they ain't got nuffink to lead with. It's all over bar the shouting. Samsung will be next with the colourful polycarbonate shells because they only ever follow too. Only thing is, their user interfaces don't match the shell... The point of WP is the UI matches the shell, it's all part of the overall design. They're going to have to do major UI redesigns, the iOS 7 changes don't go remotely far enough.

    (long NOK)
    Jul 23 05:12 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Lumia 1020 Edges The Company Back Into Conversation [View article]
    Of 900000 iPhone apps, 65% are "zombies", they don't get downloaded.

    Of the remaining 300k, only a couple of thousand at the very most will get large numbers of downloads and actually get used regularly. All the rest will get downloaded once, tested and then deleted as the garbage they are.

    The "app gap" is a lot smaller than most think, and even then it only is an actual problem for a small percentage of phone users.
    Jul 12 04:07 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Are Likely to Halt Purchases of U.S. Treasury Debt [View article]
    "No problem, Premier Wen, we will honor our promises... just as you honored your promise to introduce democracy to China, a promise made back when our country opened its borders to your products. You can count on us, pal! (toothy grin and wink)"

    I'm sure that China will introduce democracy just as soon as the USA does.
    Mar 13 12:05 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia: HERE We Go [View article]
    There are 2 mapping companies, Navteq and Tele Atlas. Everyone else licenses their data.

    Nokia own Navteq.
    Tomtom own Tele Atlas.

    Garmin for example licenses Navteq data. Google and Apple license Tele Atlas data.

    In the mobile space only Nokia owns their own data sources, and this gives them a huge advantage. They can put high quality mapping systems into anything they like. They can use it any way they like, and every mobile phone out there using it helps them improve their data.

    In addition their underlying technology is the best in the business, it has been vector based from the start (not bitmap like Google) so you can put an entire map on a mobile phone. It works both fully online and offline or a hybrid mode where it downloads what it needs & from that point on works offline.

    In terms of the price war, Nokia is pushing Asha at the low end and cutting Android margins. Even the Ashas get Nokia Maps.

    I fully expect Nokia to convert most of their "dumb" phone customers to Asha customers, if not Lumia.
    Mar 1 07:07 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Nobody Tells You About Goldman Sachs [View article]
    It would leave me feeling soiled to own Goldman. Or any of the other banks listed.

    No amount of money is worth a good night's sleep.
    Jan 21 02:54 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Lumia: No Killer Apps, Investors Lose [View article]
    If SA are willing to pay $0.01/page view, fair enough.

    Killer app: Nokia Music.

    Listen to this review:

    I use it pretty much every day and happen to agree with him.

    Maps is killer too.

    Oh and PureView. What's a shake free video of your 1 year old's first steps worth to you?
    Mar 20 01:11 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Why Microsoft Needs Nokia [View article]
    Money talks around here.

    You should back up your love for Google and hate for Microsoft with some cold hard credit. Go long Google, short Microsoft, and if you have the stones, leverage up too.
    Feb 17 06:10 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Is Why Microsoft Needs Nokia [View article]
    I've been kinda pointing out for a while that MSFT needs NOK more than NOK needs MSFT. MSFT is in general tolerated but not well liked among techies so it's not a selling point for early adopters. Techies though love technology and the 920 has that in spades.

    Having said that, WP8 is a radical departure for Microsoft, the interface is not a badly implemented Apple clone, but is fresh, striking, new and actually very usable. The underlying operating system you pretty much don't touch on a phone anyway.
    Feb 17 06:05 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Vs. Research In Motion: Only One Will Survive [View article]
    A few of words of warning.

    Samsung is busy making the same mistakes Nokia made over the last 5 years. Take a look at their burgeoning product portfolio. They absolutely will not remain in first place for long. I wouldn't short them yet but that day is coming closer.

    Apple... Their fabulous new device was the same as the old one, with an extra row of icons... Oh the underwhelming value.

    Nokia has a place, RIM has a place and when you're at the top the only way is down.
    Jan 14 04:07 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia's Shares Are Benefiting From Irrational Exuberance [View article]

    Much of Apple and Samsung's recent success has been due to the burning platform memo & the resulting death of Symbian, played out over the last 18 months.

    Well, NOK has now switched platforms and has a lineup ready for 2013.
    Jan 11 09:17 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment