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css1971

css1971
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  • Several Theories To Explain Apple's Nosedive [View article]
    No. It couldn't. Apple doesn't have the cash you think it has.
    Jan 30, 2013. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft (MSFT) is reportedly working with Qualcomm (QCOM) and others to create a Windows Phone reference design for Chinese OEMs targeting emerging markets. Creating cheaper WP hardware is critical to taking on Android in China and other cost-sensitive markets - Nokia (NOK) and Microsoft have promised they'll offer $100 (unsubsidized) WP models, but have a ways to go. Separately, Verizon has begun selling the Samsung Ativ Odyssey for a subsidized $50, and will reportedly sell a Lumia 920 variant once AT&T exclusivity ends. [View news story]
    No the problem is WP8 isn't capable of $100 (or less) phones at the moment. MS needs cheaper CPUs and cheaper RAM to compete with Android on the low end, but that'll just make Android cheaper too. That's why Nokia is pushing Asha there (successfully I might add).

    MS would do better to improve the scalability of their software though.
    Jan 26, 2013. 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Growth Story Is Over [View article]
    Ashraf, largely agree with you & I reckon Apple will be worth picking up fairly soon, from a value point of view.

    Apple is now trailing in the software space, MSFT ironically is taking the lead in user interface design, something they've never done before. So there are some problems to iron out, they'll iron them on the next release.

    I'm mostly a Linux user, I don't really like Windows, or MacOS, they get in the way and make it difficult to do stuff but the UI on WP7.5 and 8 is about right for touch based devices.
    Jan 24, 2013. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Apple, What A Difference A Week Makes [View article]
    The "smart money" looks to the future, what are the next quarter's numbers going to look like. Not to the past. These numbers were priced in at $700 and they already got their gain by selling then.

    You're 6 months behind in an age when they invest millions to be a nanosecond ahead. You should probably be out of the market, maybe invest in a tracker fund or something like that (though the market is high just now so maybe not even that).
    Jan 24, 2013. 05:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Apple, What A Difference A Week Makes [View article]
    Bag holders, the lot of you.

    http://bit.ly/10AVkxV
    Jan 24, 2013. 05:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia (NOK -1.7%) is getting on board the 3D printing bandwagon: the company is releasing a development kit (Nokia calls it a 3DK) that allows users to create custom shells for the Lumia 820. One could see the concept eventually extended to a variety of other hardware accessories. [View news story]
    Now that's totally cool.

    Just need a 3D printer now... Gonna be the gadget to have next year.
    Jan 18, 2013. 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Cheaper Phone Means Cheaper Stock? [View article]
    What do you think Samsung/Nokia etc are doing?

    Apple don't innovate any more, so they're simply following the competition down in margin.
    Jan 17, 2013. 06:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shiller PE Continues To Mislead Investors, S&P 500 Is Fairly Valued In Early 2013 [View article]
    "New technologies will make low-cost energy available in enormous quantities."

    Really? I follow new energy technologies fairly closely but I'm unaware of anything on the horizon which fits this description (including shale oil/gas). Rather it looks like the reverse is true. Energy is going to become more expensive.

    Productivity increases are driven by the replacement of human labour by machine labour, that'll continue sure, but it doesn't look like energy is getting cheaper in the future.

    Since 1971 the Shiller P/E will under-report the likelihood of the market going up. It became unconstrained at that point and is now in an exponential phase, so the earlier earnings figures used in the average are too low. If you plot the data points you'll see pre and post 1971 clustering differently because the monetary system has changed. However it does tell you the market isn't "cheap" and there are cheaper, better value markets out there.
    Jan 15, 2013. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If cutting Apple (AAPL) targets is an Olympic sport, Nomura wins the gold, slashing its price target to $530 from $660, with the analysts proving they read the paper by citing worries over iPhone sales and gross margins. [View news story]
    Oh man, this has got to hurt.
    At this rate Apple won't even bother with an iPhone 6.

    Then how will you get up in the morning?
    Jan 15, 2013. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's (AAPL) shares are -3.4% premarket following reports that the company has cut iPhone 5 component orders for calendar Q1 due to weaker-than-expected demand. That's possibly helping to depress sentiment on the stock-futures market, with the Nasdaq benchmark -0.4%. The Dow is flat and the S&P is +0.1%, while Europe remains mostly in the green. [View news story]
    So what you're saying is, the only way is down?
    Jan 14, 2013. 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's (AAPL) shares are -3.4% premarket following reports that the company has cut iPhone 5 component orders for calendar Q1 due to weaker-than-expected demand. That's possibly helping to depress sentiment on the stock-futures market, with the Nasdaq benchmark -0.4%. The Dow is flat and the S&P is +0.1%, while Europe remains mostly in the green. [View news story]
    Their job is not to count widgets. Their job is to take your money.

    If that means telling you the stock is going to $1000 when it's already at $700, that's what they'll do. if that means pushing it down to $350, they'll do that too.
    Jan 14, 2013. 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Network Effect: Why Apple's iOS Will Win The Platform War Over Google's Android [View article]
    You're over estimating and misusing the strength of the network effect with respect to mobile phone ecosystems. It just isn't there, and what is there benefits Java funnily enough, not iOS (or Android).

    For example. If I was *required* to use system A to talk to my friends, the more friends using system A the larger the network effect and the more valuable would be system A.

    However, first of all. The overwhelming majority of phone users just don't care about apps, stores and ecosystems. They browse the web a bit, play their music collection, comment on Facebook/Twitter, text a lot and send a few emails. There is no network effect in play at the phone level, all of these are generic services and protocols which operate on any platform. Their investment in any particular phone "ecosystem" is essentially zero. These people happily hop on to the latest thing when their contract is renewed. So very, very large numbers of people can and will switch away from Apple as fashion and peer pressure dictates.

    Second, Android apps are Java which is both by far the most popular programming language, and platform agnostic. You can run them on Windows, on Linux, on iOS, on MacOS, on BB and even on Sailfish. You name it, anything which Dalvik has been ported to.

    Any app network effect which exists therefore benefits mostly Java and Java developers; in fact if you add in J2ME and the 2 billion or so existing devices which support it to the Android devices (which run Java through Dalvik), Apple (and Microsoft for that matter) are totally outclassed by about an order of magnitude.
    I predict that both iOS and WP will end up running and supporting primarily Java apps in the form of J2ME and/or Dalvik. The native platforms will be niches.
    Jan 12, 2013. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Upgrades Will Create More Upside [View article]
    Financehulligan is right. China is notorious for clones. They can make nearly perfect clones in days, not weeks.
    Jan 11, 2013. 05:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Trends Will Boost Nokia's Margins In 2013 [View article]
    Seems unlikely. For a start Nokia don't leak future plans to journalists or bloggers, which means this is your typical internet rumour designed to move stocks.

    The iPhone 5's aluminium body scratches within minutes of contact with keys, coins etc. Apple customers have been voluble with their complaints over the second rate quality of the iPhone's finish and they've been buying "OtterBox Defender" cases (top selling iPhone accessory on Amazon) which make the thing like carrying and using a tank.

    So, go ahead, call me Mr. Sceptical.
    Jan 10, 2013. 07:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) is working on a cheaper iPhone that could launch later this year, the WSJ reports. One source says the device could resemble the regular iPhone, but "with a different, less-expensive body." The cheapest iPhone currently sold (the 8GB iPhone 4) goes for $450 unlocked, putting it out of the reach of many emerging markets buyers, as well as some prepaid buyers in developed markets. The fact low-end Android phones sell for much less (sometimes less than $150 unlocked) has done wonders for Android's international share. [View news story]
    HTC just announced 90% drop in profits. Coming to an AAPL store near you.
    Jan 8, 2013. 06:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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