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appledeadmoney

appledeadmoney
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  • Dollar store watch: Wal-Mart small-store plan is a big headache [View news story]
    This is a long time coming.. I am surprised they are allowing the convenience store/gas station model unscathed.. I guess that too is a matter of time....
    Feb 28 11:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Future set to file for Chapter 11 with $40B+ in debt [View news story]
    This reminds me of an old-time mafia play.. They take ownership of a joint and laden it with debt while running all types of goods through the joint and then burn it out.. Criminals -- plain and simple.....
    Feb 21 07:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gundlach: Time to buy interest rate risk [View news story]
    I think Gundlach is one of the better market guys to follow. However, he does get quite a bit wrong. Heading into 2013 he was pounding the table on silver and said U.S. equities were immensely overvalued. Look where those calls sit at year end.

    So yes. He can be wrong. Most professionals have hits and misses. He is no different.

    That said, I am not sure I would be rushing into these mreits just yet. Tack makes a valid point. The final flush has not occurred yet. Also, the technicals on all these stocks appear weak and more downside may be forthcoming.

    The dividends also have been on the decline.... Something to consider.
    Dec 1 11:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kamakura Rate Forecast Shows Treasuries Up 0.05% To 0.12%, Mortgage Spreads Narrow [View article]
    Donald,

    I merely wanted to pick your brain regarding the recent price swoon in the DELL INC SR NT 5.4%40 S*BE 5.40 2040.. I initiated a position in these at 94 earlier this year. Since that time, these bonds have cratered any thoughts on the negative price and would you look to add at these levels?

    I thought the Silver Lake deal would help stabilize the price action....

    Thanks in advance for any feedback regarding these instruments...

    Regards,
    Nov 24 02:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hempton: Herbalife could go higher, U.S. coal will go lower [View news story]
    I have been nibbling on the 2021 bonds for both Peabody and Arch Coal. They are offering yields of 6.5 to 9%.. Bought both under par. BTUs at 99 and the ACIs in the 80s... No need to worry about volatility as much as I worry about outright bankruptcy... I like this game much better..
    Oct 18 12:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New IPO American Homes 4 Rent reportedly slashing jobs [View news story]
    Well we will see....
    Aug 25 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New IPO American Homes 4 Rent reportedly slashing jobs [View news story]
    Over time this mega landlord business model will fail miserably. It is going to be difficult and much more costly to manage all those single home properties. Multifamily units can have difficulty squeezing out gains with numerous rental streams on one property. Now take that and spread it among numerous homes across the U.S.... Ever rising taxes and insurance rates alone will eat into these profits.. Margins will be tight and all it takes is one bad tenant and the profits will be lost through property damage and legal costs.. The investors and shareholders are going to get burned in these entities... However, I must say it will give me great satisfaction to see these companies burn as they have distorted the already murky housing market... Prices of homes should be 25% lower across the board but the free money and these hotshot MBAs with no real concept of being landlords have propped up the market for the past couple of years... Unfortunately, the real fools will be the investors getting into these deals looking for some yield... Buyer beware on these....
    Aug 25 01:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rate worries again rout income favorites [View news story]
    Tack,

    I could not agree more with your strategy... The 3% level on the 10 year would appear to be a psychological level signaling a final crescendo on the panic....

    The REITS, utilities, preferreds and everything income related has been shellacked.... The real question becomes how long these plays will work -- will they be trades or longer term investments? If and when the treasury spurs higher it will continue to cut into these income sensitive plays....
    Aug 19 11:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For those still keeping score, Tesla (TSLA) added another 14.38% to last week's post-earnings bonanza , bringing the three-day total percentage change to +57%. Amusingly, the rally didn't let up AH either, as the stock tacked on an additional 2.51%, hitting $90 just before 8 p.m. [View news story]
    Oh Rick don't post that factual information... The giddy lucky ones that bought this name will jump all over you for being a short seller....

    No difference between the reckless trajectory in this equity and many of the others that are being pushed in this FED induced bullish mirage... It will no doubt end bad. The way to short this is buying naked puts plain and simple. Limits the loss and when reality finally sets in the leverage will pay off in spades....
    May 13 11:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something's Not Right About This Rally [View article]
    We saw more rotation today... Telecoms and tobacco joined the health care firms. Also, where the heck is the volume... The FED is scheduled to pump money into the system nearly every day this month. With this capital awash in the system, it is impossible to short. However, going long here requires one to be more of a trader rather than an investor. Just hope you are not invested the day the circuit breaker is tripped. Housing looks heavy here and the materials are already on their way into hell....

    I nibbled a little on MO today and continue to sell out of my high priced junk bonds... The only stock I own that perplexes me is EXPD. It is by far my weakest performer (down about 7% from where I initiated. I have plenty of dry powder to add if it starts to turn up....
    Apr 2 11:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something's Not Right About This Rally [View article]
    This is a FED induced rally and the hedgies are rotating from sector to sector skimming off the top. Do not be surprised if we don;t see a circuit breaker day on the Big Board this year. Also, there is a problem with the volume on the up vis a vis the down days. All these money managers are out there thinking they are going to have plenty of time to pull clients away before the correction hits. Not this time! They are playing against the computers on this one and the humans will lose.... Not being a doomsdayer. I manage money as well.. Just going to keep clients under 25% invested and backing up a good bit of it with puts and selling out on 10% gains as we creep higher.
    Apr 1 09:28 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deckers: Maker Of Uggs Makes Investors Say Ahh [View article]
    This stock merely is behaving like 90% of the rest of the market... Regardless of what the fundamentals suggest most names are ripping higher. Welcome to the new normal.....

    Problem is it never is different nor is it new.. Sooner or later these markets and the stocks that comprise them will crap out.. It is a matter of the easy money being pulled away when most retail traders are owning most of the inflated names being disguised as values presently.

    I own DECK. Bought it the other day after I saw some convincing buying activity involving the stock. I agree with BM on the overall picture.. However, Bret's observation of the low expectations is accurate....

    Let's see if the stock can technically reclaim its 200 day MA. If it does and holds we could be in for a nice move to $50.
    Mar 1 01:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Europe's for sale," declares the Barron's cover story arguing the Continent's stocks (VGK) remain cheap even after a 25% run since June 1. The yield on the Stoxx 600 is 3.8% vs. 2.2% on the S&P 500, and while the political crisis makes the headlines, Europe's firms have been busily cleaning up balance sheets, reducing capex, and building up cash balances. [View news story]
    Honestly, it is not that the STOXX 50 is cheap, but more that the S&P 500 is expensive... It is all in the way it is written and perceived... Fools.... Also, I feel most investors have been lulled to sleep thinking that the rates are going to stay here for quite some time. Get ready! Because when they turn bonds and equities both will get spanked!
    Dec 22 03:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "It's my worst nightmare," says a long-only bond fund manager. "There's nothing I can do - the checks come in every day, and I have to invest (the money)." Aging baby boomers following conventional wisdom by steering their accounts away from stocks and to fixed income at these low rates could get a very expensive lesson, writes Jonathan Trugman. (see also[View news story]
    Point well taken, but I think the Japan and low interest rates for years to come are already the common theme being spouted by investors in this marketplace.

    It will only take one pivotal market swoon as seen in 2000 and 2008 to offer the opportunity that will enable the cash heavy strategy to work extremely well. I am not saying have some exposure, but if anyone truly thinks the average dividend yield of 2.5% on equities and 6.9% yield on junk bonds is going to hold for the next three years based on all the macroeconomic headwinds facing most economies I think they are mistaken. I am willing to bide my time and put cash to work very slowly and sparingly in this environment.

    The FED already has admitted it cannot stave off a fiscal cliff, what makes anyone think it can stop the negative aftershocks of another impending recession. No. I like the sidelines at this time.
    Nov 26 01:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "It's my worst nightmare," says a long-only bond fund manager. "There's nothing I can do - the checks come in every day, and I have to invest (the money)." Aging baby boomers following conventional wisdom by steering their accounts away from stocks and to fixed income at these low rates could get a very expensive lesson, writes Jonathan Trugman. (see also[View news story]
    Cash actually is a good investment with all assets sitting atop frothy levels.... When the sand hits the fan in the bond market high yield (junk) bonds and investment grade corporates will also see red.... You see everyone is comparing yield to an inlfated treasury --- from dividend paying stocks to corporate or municipal bonds... This final bubble will be the greatest of all because everyone running to chase yield based on this hyperinflated marketplace will get clobbered.

    Cash is king here because no one is being offered anything to put it to work. They want savers to part with it -- to take it... Damn fools... There will be a time to invest in everything from junk bonds to stocks --- just not now.... Patience is the key.... Inflation nick investors, but crashes kill 'em....The problem is everyone thinks they will be smart enough to avoid the next bg meltdown. Let's see how that works out...If you want to trade these markets, fine.. However, having 60% plus in cash at all times will be the truly brilliant strategy when this finally comes crashing....
    Nov 26 12:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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