appledeadmoney's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/2507/comments http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/311504-robert-weinstein/20331-i-love-syna-synaptics-at-this-price?source=feed#comment-610945 610945 Sat, 01 Aug 2009 16:18:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124520-the-bubble-of-uncertainty-is-about-to-burst?source=feed#comment-416964 416964
I respect your opinion, but I must respectfully disagree. Not to say we won't see a significant rally after this recent bloodbath. I think we have hit a near term bottom this week. But this mess still appears far from finished.

Allow history to be your guide. Review the top industrial stocks before the crash of 1929 and then see how many survived. Many companies just simply went away and the market survived. Companies that many thought could not possibly falter. This same scenario more than likely is possible. ]]> Sat, 07 Mar 2009 03:37:27 -0500
I respect your opinion, but I must respectfully disagree. Not to say we won't see a significant rally after this recent bloodbath. I think we have hit a near term bottom this week. But this mess still appears far from finished.

Allow history to be your guide. Review the top industrial stocks before the crash of 1929 and then see how many survived. Many companies just simply went away and the market survived. Companies that many thought could not possibly falter. This same scenario more than likely is possible. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121680-your-oil-stocks-aren-t-coming-back?source=feed#comment-399418 399418
That being said Josh I tend to agree with you. Sector bubbles occur during every bull market. However, this tends to be the last hurrah for those sectors for a very long time. What usually happens is a new sector or group of stocks lead a new bull market. The old leaders do not. You are right there are several of these names that will never go back to their old highs. They will either tank completely or be bought at significantly lower levels by their much bigger, better capitalized competitors.

Sure people can try and make a fundamental case for the continued rise in oil price, but these were the same folks who said I was crazy when I pointed out a major oil correction was coming at the end of 07. I was a tad early but oil was well over 100 then and has since cratered. If you think the global business cycle is swooning now, just let oil take off again and stay at those incredibly speculative highs. It is not in the capitalist or the working man's bets interest to see this happen. I, too, took flack for my crazy prediction. Make no mistake oil will bounce sharply, technically it has fallen too hard, too quickly. This is not the first time peak oil has been kicked arpund by the speculators, nor will it be the last. But it will take an end of the world scenario to bring it back to where it was at the peak.

Nevertheless, even if the price of oil skyrockets the companies exploring for, drilling or producing it will not benefit handsomely from it. Sure relief rallies are in store for the sector. It along with most of the stock prices in it have been obliterated. A few stocks may rally to new highs but most will never rise enough to allow the hot money trapped in them an escape.

I am not afraid to stand by any of my writings. Hey, not one investor is right all the time, but by posting sound information in front of a community of other investors it may allow everyone to benefit as a well thought out debate should follow. I think everyone needs to exercise civility and start posting their real names. That may stop some of the unnecessary carping. ]]> Sun, 22 Feb 2009 23:44:30 -0500
That being said Josh I tend to agree with you. Sector bubbles occur during every bull market. However, this tends to be the last hurrah for those sectors for a very long time. What usually happens is a new sector or group of stocks lead a new bull market. The old leaders do not. You are right there are several of these names that will never go back to their old highs. They will either tank completely or be bought at significantly lower levels by their much bigger, better capitalized competitors.

Sure people can try and make a fundamental case for the continued rise in oil price, but these were the same folks who said I was crazy when I pointed out a major oil correction was coming at the end of 07. I was a tad early but oil was well over 100 then and has since cratered. If you think the global business cycle is swooning now, just let oil take off again and stay at those incredibly speculative highs. It is not in the capitalist or the working man's bets interest to see this happen. I, too, took flack for my crazy prediction. Make no mistake oil will bounce sharply, technically it has fallen too hard, too quickly. This is not the first time peak oil has been kicked arpund by the speculators, nor will it be the last. But it will take an end of the world scenario to bring it back to where it was at the peak.

Nevertheless, even if the price of oil skyrockets the companies exploring for, drilling or producing it will not benefit handsomely from it. Sure relief rallies are in store for the sector. It along with most of the stock prices in it have been obliterated. A few stocks may rally to new highs but most will never rise enough to allow the hot money trapped in them an escape.

I am not afraid to stand by any of my writings. Hey, not one investor is right all the time, but by posting sound information in front of a community of other investors it may allow everyone to benefit as a well thought out debate should follow. I think everyone needs to exercise civility and start posting their real names. That may stop some of the unnecessary carping. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98836-apple-investors-the-bottom-s-not-in-just-yet?source=feed#comment-276523 276523 Wed, 08 Oct 2008 03:47:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94470-airline-stocks-any-excuse-to-fall?source=feed#comment-248965 248965
I believe this was the work of a hedge fund or major trader trying to close short positions on this stock and in this hot sector.

I believe an investigation needs to take place and if any malfeasance or illegalities are found fines, jail and lifetime disbarment from trading should be levied on the guilty parties.]]> Tue, 09 Sep 2008 01:01:35 -0400
I believe this was the work of a hedge fund or major trader trying to close short positions on this stock and in this hot sector.

I believe an investigation needs to take place and if any malfeasance or illegalities are found fines, jail and lifetime disbarment from trading should be levied on the guilty parties.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93612-worst-of-credit-storms-is-over-for-u-s-banks-fitch?source=feed#comment-244252 244252
After this occurs and 500 to 1000 more financial institutions close their doors and CNBC's Larry Kudlow admits he has no "flippin" idea what he is talking about then, and only then, will everything possibly get back to normal. Oh, and yes, at that time, may the surviving financial institutions be out of the woods...... ]]> Wed, 03 Sep 2008 01:18:45 -0400
After this occurs and 500 to 1000 more financial institutions close their doors and CNBC's Larry Kudlow admits he has no "flippin" idea what he is talking about then, and only then, will everything possibly get back to normal. Oh, and yes, at that time, may the surviving financial institutions be out of the woods...... ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93632-the-new-york-times-living-in-denial?source=feed#comment-244251 244251 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 00:59:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92701-the-latest-changes-to-seekingalpha-com?source=feed#comment-243489 243489
The only suggestion I would make is in addition to the Transcripts area is there any way possible to have a section which would include webcasts of investor days or investment conferences featuring all the different companies and their presentations. I know breifing.com highlights these events currently with web pages, but the site does not provide each individual webcast.

No great shakes if this concept is not implemented. I just think it would offer the site and its visitors yet another valuable source of information many of the sites fail to provide. Seeking Alpha has done a great job with the blogging concept of investing and its model is being imitated by several others but not with the success you folks have done.

Keep up the good work!]]> Mon, 01 Sep 2008 19:57:18 -0400
The only suggestion I would make is in addition to the Transcripts area is there any way possible to have a section which would include webcasts of investor days or investment conferences featuring all the different companies and their presentations. I know breifing.com highlights these events currently with web pages, but the site does not provide each individual webcast.

No great shakes if this concept is not implemented. I just think it would offer the site and its visitors yet another valuable source of information many of the sites fail to provide. Seeking Alpha has done a great job with the blogging concept of investing and its model is being imitated by several others but not with the success you folks have done.

Keep up the good work!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92744-big-lots-good-report-adverse-reaction?source=feed#comment-239795 239795
This stock is at a decade double top; and, almost every year since it has been trading, the final four months of the trading year have proven to be unforgiving to BIG.

I am not saying the selloff will be as bad this year because of the macroeconomic conditions here in the U.S., but more downside seems almost inevitable.]]> Wed, 27 Aug 2008 01:56:53 -0400
This stock is at a decade double top; and, almost every year since it has been trading, the final four months of the trading year have proven to be unforgiving to BIG.

I am not saying the selloff will be as bad this year because of the macroeconomic conditions here in the U.S., but more downside seems almost inevitable.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84672-putting-1t-subprime-mortgage-losses-in-perspective?source=feed#comment-204002 204002
Rather, it is merely a point focused on the recent guarded optimism being pushed upon the American public by the mass media and indivduals like Mr. Forbes. It is sort of reminiscent of the crew on the Titanic telling the third class passengers everything will be ok and that they should remain locked below deck because the ship is unsinkable. We all know how that ended!

In other words, these Wall Street talking heads believe we can talk this economy and this market in from the ledge before it plunges. If that is the case, as these folks keep telling the masses and the little investors not to panic, I suggest PANIC!!!!

As many market gurus over the years have pointed out, market bottoms are not hit when there is still any kind of hope or optimism in the air. That is exactly what Mssrs. Forbes and Perry still represent, although all indicators are pointing to recession. In other words, sentiment is just not suggesting enough misery yet.

I take this as yet another good reason for those conservative investors to remain on the sidelines and wait for an entry point into these markets and to the aggressive investors keep shorting the short squeeze bounces! In fact, I think we will see a dandy by the end of summer.... For what it's worth! ]]> Sat, 12 Jul 2008 23:03:22 -0400
Rather, it is merely a point focused on the recent guarded optimism being pushed upon the American public by the mass media and indivduals like Mr. Forbes. It is sort of reminiscent of the crew on the Titanic telling the third class passengers everything will be ok and that they should remain locked below deck because the ship is unsinkable. We all know how that ended!

In other words, these Wall Street talking heads believe we can talk this economy and this market in from the ledge before it plunges. If that is the case, as these folks keep telling the masses and the little investors not to panic, I suggest PANIC!!!!

As many market gurus over the years have pointed out, market bottoms are not hit when there is still any kind of hope or optimism in the air. That is exactly what Mssrs. Forbes and Perry still represent, although all indicators are pointing to recession. In other words, sentiment is just not suggesting enough misery yet.

I take this as yet another good reason for those conservative investors to remain on the sidelines and wait for an entry point into these markets and to the aggressive investors keep shorting the short squeeze bounces! In fact, I think we will see a dandy by the end of summer.... For what it's worth! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71586-options-trader-tuesday-outlook?source=feed#comment-147415 147415 Wed, 09 Apr 2008 01:31:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71629-amd-s-troubles-are-making-intel-investors-nervous?source=feed#comment-147413 147413
Too much bearishness and doom being laid upon this sector. At these price to book ratios, you would swear man was going to stop using technology and semis cold turkey. ]]> Wed, 09 Apr 2008 01:21:45 -0400
Too much bearishness and doom being laid upon this sector. At these price to book ratios, you would swear man was going to stop using technology and semis cold turkey. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/39916-the-smell-of-contagion-hits-wall-street?source=feed#comment-90223 90223
Good piece. I blogged something similar today, just not as detailed and comprehensive.

It appears that we are the only two guys heading for the exits in this market. Not too mention, we look like fools in doing so.

Do you think we are a year early in our prediction for a major correction or the possibility of the onset of a bear market? Over the past 27 years, the third year of a presidential cycle tends to be the most consistent performer of the four-year term. This appears to be the case again this year, at least up until now.

Your thoughts would be appreciated.

Jason Shade]]> Tue, 03 Jul 2007 00:33:16 -0400
Good piece. I blogged something similar today, just not as detailed and comprehensive.

It appears that we are the only two guys heading for the exits in this market. Not too mention, we look like fools in doing so.

Do you think we are a year early in our prediction for a major correction or the possibility of the onset of a bear market? Over the past 27 years, the third year of a presidential cycle tends to be the most consistent performer of the four-year term. This appears to be the case again this year, at least up until now.

Your thoughts would be appreciated.

Jason Shade]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/39738-advanced-life-sciences-attractive-after-recent-sell-off?source=feed#comment-90045 90045
Although the efficacy data appears positive, the safety data may become a much larger concern as cethromycin moves closer to market. Cethromycin is a ketolide. One only has to look at the first ketolide (Ketek) launched two years ago by Sanofi-Aventis. Ketek was probably one of the most powerful and effective antibiotics ever brought to market. Although the drug had a fairly solid launch, it was probably never going to be a huge blockbuster. Hurting the drug even more was the safety issues that surfaced last year. The FDA raised concerns regarding deaths and liver toxicity which eventually spelled the demise for the promising young antibiotic.

With this as a recent example, I would not be keen to take bets on small biotech companies banking on an antibiotic for its first big splash in the world of pharmaceuticals. First of all antibiotics are usually not cash cows and doctors are reserved about prescribing a new antibiotic. Factor in Ketek's recent woes and the reservations could be even stronger.

I would need to be confident of the product pipeline at Advanced Life Sciences (ADLS) in order to invest in it. I would not be buying the company based on the hype surrounding cethromycin. The oncology and inflammation drugs would be my focus regarding this particular stock, and they are not far enough along in the FDA process to garner my attention.]]> Sat, 30 Jun 2007 23:24:20 -0400
Although the efficacy data appears positive, the safety data may become a much larger concern as cethromycin moves closer to market. Cethromycin is a ketolide. One only has to look at the first ketolide (Ketek) launched two years ago by Sanofi-Aventis. Ketek was probably one of the most powerful and effective antibiotics ever brought to market. Although the drug had a fairly solid launch, it was probably never going to be a huge blockbuster. Hurting the drug even more was the safety issues that surfaced last year. The FDA raised concerns regarding deaths and liver toxicity which eventually spelled the demise for the promising young antibiotic.

With this as a recent example, I would not be keen to take bets on small biotech companies banking on an antibiotic for its first big splash in the world of pharmaceuticals. First of all antibiotics are usually not cash cows and doctors are reserved about prescribing a new antibiotic. Factor in Ketek's recent woes and the reservations could be even stronger.

I would need to be confident of the product pipeline at Advanced Life Sciences (ADLS) in order to invest in it. I would not be buying the company based on the hype surrounding cethromycin. The oncology and inflammation drugs would be my focus regarding this particular stock, and they are not far enough along in the FDA process to garner my attention.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/27646-top-5-largest-uranium-miners?source=feed#comment-81694 81694
I see uranium as the best long term alternative energy play. I call it alternative because it still has tremendous utilization potential that has yet to be tapped. I have been in favor of FRG since it was in the low 6's this past summer. I also wanted to get your thoughts on USEG. It is not a pure play, but it does provide some nuclear/uranium exposure.]]> Wed, 21 Feb 2007 23:24:35 -0500
I see uranium as the best long term alternative energy play. I call it alternative because it still has tremendous utilization potential that has yet to be tapped. I have been in favor of FRG since it was in the low 6's this past summer. I also wanted to get your thoughts on USEG. It is not a pure play, but it does provide some nuclear/uranium exposure.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/22588-size-really-does-matter-in-the-case-of-uranium-stocks-smaller-may-be-better?source=feed#comment-79245 79245
How do you view today's news regarding China and the rekindling of nuclear interest in that region. How do you see this faring for nuclear energy overall and say a bull market not only in uranium but also nuclear related type companies like say USU and SGR?]]> Mon, 18 Dec 2006 10:43:21 -0500
How do you view today's news regarding China and the rekindling of nuclear interest in that region. How do you see this faring for nuclear energy overall and say a bull market not only in uranium but also nuclear related type companies like say USU and SGR?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/21270-why-the-ipo-slowdown-may-be-a-good-thing?source=feed#comment-76654 76654
The Street is quick to forget those bubble years in the late 90s. We recently saw this with the alternative energy market and ethanol plays. Any company with a hint of corn in its prospectus was sent soaring upon its going public, and now, many of those stocks are trading notably lower than they were upon first trading.

Usually a glut of IPOs poring forth in any given sector, signify a possible bubble in that given sector. The fewer the IPOs generally the better the value being offered.]]> Tue, 28 Nov 2006 01:00:54 -0500
The Street is quick to forget those bubble years in the late 90s. We recently saw this with the alternative energy market and ethanol plays. Any company with a hint of corn in its prospectus was sent soaring upon its going public, and now, many of those stocks are trading notably lower than they were upon first trading.

Usually a glut of IPOs poring forth in any given sector, signify a possible bubble in that given sector. The fewer the IPOs generally the better the value being offered.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/21133-the-short-case-on-coinstar?source=feed#comment-76073 76073 Wed, 22 Nov 2006 13:51:00 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/18922-dow-s-rise-to-12-000-was-second-slowest-1-000-point-rise-in-its-history?source=feed#comment-71119 71119 Fri, 20 Oct 2006 14:58:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/18131-china-mobile-making-money-from-chinas-emerging-middle-class?source=feed#comment-69167 69167 TSTC). They provide some of the big China telecom player with services to be used in building out the 3G networks for the upcoming 2008 Olympics. Any thoughts on this particular company or the overall investment environment/opportunit... concerning the network buildouts?]]> Tue, 10 Oct 2006 01:16:15 -0400 TSTC). They provide some of the big China telecom player with services to be used in building out the 3G networks for the upcoming 2008 Olympics. Any thoughts on this particular company or the overall investment environment/opportunit... concerning the network buildouts?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/16005-upscale-brands-not-immune-to-investor-wrath?source=feed#comment-61125 61125
You seem to have a sound focus on the upscale retailers. Maybe you can help me understand the recent upward moves in both KSS and FD. I did some work on the retail sector yesterday and found them to be two upscale retailers surviving and actually thriving amid the recent shelling in the retail sector.

I was wondering are they just two really good houses in a bad neighborhood or is there something more to the recent rise in price, particularly concerning KSS. This stock has not been this high in almost five years.

Just wondering. Thanks.

Jason]]> Mon, 28 Aug 2006 15:24:46 -0400
You seem to have a sound focus on the upscale retailers. Maybe you can help me understand the recent upward moves in both KSS and FD. I did some work on the retail sector yesterday and found them to be two upscale retailers surviving and actually thriving amid the recent shelling in the retail sector.

I was wondering are they just two really good houses in a bad neighborhood or is there something more to the recent rise in price, particularly concerning KSS. This stock has not been this high in almost five years.

Just wondering. Thanks.

Jason]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/15994-google-needs-to-shed-some-cash?source=feed#comment-60985 60985
This is one of the reasons why I believe it will be a potential buyer of another company I have been accumulating --- Napster. NAPS is roughly worth $150 million in market cap and would be an excellent addition to the suite of Internet search/media/entertain... services already being offered by Google. Music search and play is definitely a platform that Google could take and transform into yet another viable revenue stream.

GOOG could snap up this company at a premium of $300 million plus with very little difficulty based on the cash numbers you showed.

Just my thoughts.]]> Sun, 27 Aug 2006 12:13:21 -0400
This is one of the reasons why I believe it will be a potential buyer of another company I have been accumulating --- Napster. NAPS is roughly worth $150 million in market cap and would be an excellent addition to the suite of Internet search/media/entertain... services already being offered by Google. Music search and play is definitely a platform that Google could take and transform into yet another viable revenue stream.

GOOG could snap up this company at a premium of $300 million plus with very little difficulty based on the cash numbers you showed.

Just my thoughts.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/12962-railroad-demand-strong?source=feed#comment-52626 52626 Tue, 04 Jul 2006 00:44:52 -0400