appledeadmoney

Your Oil Stocks Aren't Coming Back

I wish people would remain civil on this board, especially in their disagreements. These exchanges our to be intellectual and educational. Words like idiot and fool have no place here. Those resorting to that level of debate demonstrate their own inability to communicate effectively or intelligently. I, myself, stopped posting due to the mean spirited feedback I would receive. Why help those who know everything?

That being said Josh I tend to agree with you. Sector bubbles occur during every bull market. However, this tends to be the last hurrah for those sectors for a very long time. What usually happens is a new sector or group of stocks lead a new bull market. The old leaders do not. You are right there are several of these names that will never go back to their old highs. They will either tank completely or be bought at significantly lower levels by their much bigger, better capitalized competitors.

Sure people can try and make a fundamental case for the continued rise in oil price, but these were the same folks who said I was crazy when I pointed out a major oil correction was coming at the end of 07. I was a tad early but oil was well over 100 then and has since cratered. If you think the global business cycle is swooning now, just let oil take off again and stay at those incredibly speculative highs. It is not in the capitalist or the working man's bets interest to see this happen. I, too, took flack for my crazy prediction. Make no mistake oil will bounce sharply, technically it has fallen too hard, too quickly. This is not the first time peak oil has been kicked arpund by the speculators, nor will it be the last. But it will take an end of the world scenario to bring it back to where it was at the peak.

Nevertheless, even if the price of oil skyrockets the companies exploring for, drilling or producing it will not benefit handsomely from it. Sure relief rallies are in store for the sector. It along with most of the stock prices in it have been obliterated. A few stocks may rally to new highs but most will never rise enough to allow the hot money trapped in them an escape.

I am not afraid to stand by any of my writings. Hey, not one investor is right all the time, but by posting sound information in front of a community of other investors it may allow everyone to benefit as a well thought out debate should follow. I think everyone needs to exercise civility and start posting their real names. That may stop some of the unnecessary carping.