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jimgutner

jimgutner
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  • GLD's Long-Term Outlook Remains Strong [View article]
    It is amazing what one can convince themselves of when they believe that an asset is nothing more than an analyzable equation. Great equations. But obviously incorrect conclusions for whatever reason. Unknown variables and too much text book reading.
    Feb 26, 2015. 02:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GoPro Inc. Lockup Expiration: Will Sr. Woodman Unload His Stake? [View article]
    The ridiculous over-the-top fascination with lockups of founding investors is a waste of time. It's as if people are looking to see if the entire company is a house of cards imminently falling into the sea. Founding investors would be remiss not to sell some of their hugely advanced wealth to diversify. And they never sell all of what they can. Perhaps you can draw the conclusion that because they sell they are not aware of that buy out offer talked about occasionally with GPRO. So that one isn't coming to anyone's rescue. Sales and earnings growth will drive any stock's price relative to the overall market's direction. It's obvious that consumers like GPRO's products and that valuation reflects big growth. There is always aberrational trading for quite some time in new issues, which GPRO still is.
    Dec 24, 2014. 07:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerge Energy Laying Groundwork For Triple-Digit Earnings Growth [View article]
    The author apparently doesn't have much insight and is just stating the obvious. To say that the price is a steal because of the dividend shows that he is unaware of the distinct possibility of lower dividends. The dividend is highly variable.
    Oct 15, 2014. 08:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerge Energy Laying Groundwork For Triple-Digit Earnings Growth [View article]
    The problem with these types of consensus estimates is that analysts do not update them every day but rather occasionally. if the price of oil drop below where marginal fracking wells are profitable, sales and profits will be lowered because those orders will be cancelled. Those earnings revisions will show up over time and to late for anyone to take action. EMES has been acting - many other oil companies like oil will drop much farther than where it is now. Is that anticipation correct? I think the whole oil sector including would act better if oil stops free falling and the world economies slowing talk dies down.
    Oct 9, 2014. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerge Energy Laying Groundwork For Triple-Digit Earnings Growth [View article]
    I wonder what how much competition is out there beside the public names we know? FMSA is one that's going public today. How many other potential suppliers are there that we aren't aware of?
    Oct 3, 2014. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And GLD Could See Further Losses As The U.S Economy Recovers [View article]
    If, could, may, maybe. Your statements are so well hedged that there's no way you can be wrong. So I guess you're right whatever you are saying which is in the land of make believe.
    Oct 2, 2014. 06:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Best Stocks To Buy Now Without Market Decline Worries [View article]
    You have completely lost any credibility by claiming that these stocks have no market related risk. Some have already proven that they are highly correlated to market selling and with higher beta.
    May 15, 2014. 07:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intercept Pharmaceuticals: 3 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares During The Last 30 Days [View article]
    Insiders would be, in my opinion, stupid if they didn't sell some shares of substance after a move like ICPT has had. And the inverse is probably also true: they'd be silly to add to holdings that have increased like ICPT has. I'm sure that they will be awarded more options at these prices eventually if it holds.

    I'm not sure I like your risk/reward: 16% upside to 70% downside. You take it. It's a crap shoot. I have no idea how this plays out. When mo-mo is out of favor shorting works well, but I would certainly cover before 497.
    Apr 5, 2014. 07:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Buyers: 12 Reasons Why The Current Sky High Natural Gas Price Isn't Here To Stay [View article]
    Wow!! All this discussion about where NG is going and nobody understanding that leveraged ETFs do not track the underlying trend when there is volatility. It's called Volatility Decay and is major. They are the wrong instrument. They all go to zero over time - both sides. Why do you think they are constantly doing reverse splits - both sides. Stick with singles, long or short, puts or calls and bet on a direction - but not with the ETFs mentioned by everyone here. They are designed to track the underlying for one day - each day - but not longer. They work well if your underlying makes a consistent directional move every day. But the more volatility, the less correlation.

    Don't believe me. Look at UNG and UGAZ from 4/18 to today. UNG goes from 24 to 27.70(+15%) - UGAZ goes from 40 to 36(-10%).Hmmm ... ... How's that possible? It is! An acquaintance of mine made the right call on the Shanghai market in 2007 - down. He chose the double inverse(FXP). The market went down 50% and his FXP went down 30. It went down not up. He should have shorted the single FXI.

    So use the wrong instrument at your own risk. Understand or you throw your money away even when you are right and willing to put down your money on it!!
    Feb 22, 2014. 07:24 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intercept Pharmaceuticals: 6 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares This Year [View article]
    Considering the news and stock price activity in the last several weeks I would almost say that insiders would be negligent if they did not do some selling. Currently up over 400% from the 70 level which was up significantly itself from previous levels. If you really think that you can read something into that you're putting your capital at risk. Put yourself in their position. Also, while I haven't looked into the details of this selling, Almost all of this planned selling is not a one shot deal. It is done at so much each month for a period of time.
    Jan 21, 2014. 07:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sarepta releases 120 week eteplirsen data [View news story]
    I find this and the after hours stock activity extremely interesting. The FDA has already called into question - via comments by the SRPT CEO - the use of dystrophin as a marker and the walk test. I hope it works but the hope and naivity of biotech speculators never ceases to amaze me for their ignorance.
    Jan 15, 2014. 07:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Sarepta pops amid Duchenne policy forum [View news story]
    I find this tweet and move in the stock quite interesting when the CEO of Sarepta communicated that the FDA had reservations about the technology and the use of the markers they are using.
    Dec 12, 2013. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Repeat Business Energizes Starbucks [View article]
    A settlement like this is just a one time charge and has nothing to do with the momentum and future earnings of the company. It doesn't change revenues. It's not a drop in sales or a business related issue. People don't stop going to Starbucks because of it. It does change the book value and cash on hand currently, but that's all. If one wanted a high PE consistently growing stock like SBUX, falling on a one timer like this creates a buying opportunity
    Nov 13, 2013. 07:19 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's Nothing 'Regular' About The Business Cycle [View article]
    Your article is right on about unknowns. I cringe when I read or hear economists and analysts say "at this point in the business cycle" as if it's a known quantity. But somehow it makes them sound like they are tuned in and can fool many of those that need someone "with expertise" to pay. It's also why those economists and analysts are doing what they are doing and not making money using their advice to parlay their personal wealth.
    Oct 31, 2013. 07:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investor Warning: Avoid The New Risky Gold Play [View article]
    It's called volatility decay and you are good to attempt to enlighten people. I had a friend who felt that the China market would go down in 2007-8 so he bought and held the double inverse. Both the index and held double inverse dropped more than 50% over the time he held it. That's the part people don't understand. Both the leveraged positive and negative go to zero over time together and the more volatility you have the faster they get there, but again it's hard to understand. That's why all of these vehicles must eventually have reverse splits.
    Oct 5, 2013. 07:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
70 Comments
122 Likes