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MashieNiblick

MashieNiblick
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  • Panic-selling in income producers (I, II) infected the BDC's as well, notably Main Street (MAIN) and Triangle (TCAP), both down more than 10%. Fed meddling seemingly can't hurt their returns, but most names in the popular sector trade well above their net asset values (MAIN is 57% above Sept. 30 NAV after today's decline, TCAP 47%), making them vulnerable to a change in sentiment even if business is doing fine. [View news story]
    Nothing but doom and gloom, but not just because Obama won. We all knew that that was reasonably likely, or at least anyone who could read the news with an impartial eye could. All of the last week's value destruction can't be just the result of us finding out that the polls were right, so what is it?

    Consensus is building that it's a combination of three significant factors: 1) Germany's weakening economy threatens all of Europe's solvency, 2) the election confirms that we'll spend the next four years minmizing our chances of economic recovery from this most-anti business administration, and 3) less than thrilling earnings reports. Germany and the earnings take out tech, earnings and the negative tax implications disrupt MLPs and REITs.

    There will be pops when there is consensus on how to raise taxes ("if" was decided November 6th), and particularly if there's any agreement on managing entitlements. Increasing the federal debt limit and pushing back the fiscal cliff will help stabilize people's attitudes, but will it be enough? None of that will make Germany any stronger or improve next quarter's earnings reports, but at least settling one of the three factors should give us a fighting chance.

    Until those things come to pass and the impact on the markets is clear, I agree with tampat - stay away for now, let this baby settle. It could be another 2-3 months of steady declines.
    Nov 14 06:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method: What Next To Buy, And Why? - October, 2012 Mid-Month Update [View article]
    PS: StreetSmart shows NGG's dividend yield as 5.5% based on an annual dividend of $3.11. Interestingly, they also show a quarterly dividend of $2.01, which of course makes no sense except as a reminder to take any data one finds with a grain of salt.
    Oct 17 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Mad Method: What Next To Buy, And Why? - October, 2012 Mid-Month Update [View article]
    JD:

    This is the second article of yours I've read thoroughly, and I like your style of analysis - plenty I can use, and I've become a follower.

    One question re PSEC: I use Schwab's StreetSmart.com and they compile analyst's ratings, as do others. The six analysts covering PSEC are distributed as 1 buy, 3 holds, 1 underperform and 1 sell. This is about as negative as I've seen since I started checking this page on StreetSmart a few months ago. Any idea why there should be such mixed opinions on one of your favorite stocks?
    Oct 17 05:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of Swisher Hygiene (SWSH -17%) get flushed after the company says it notified the NASDAQ that its Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2011 and Form 10-Qs for the quarterly periods ended March 31, 2012 and June 30, 2012 will not be filed with the SEC in time to meet the extended deadline it had previously been granted. [View news story]
    Man, I thought I'd seen everything, but I've never seen this. With each extension I've been convinced we'lll finally learn the truth about SWSH's financial situation. Not anymore - clearly they're putting this off as long as possible, well past the amount of time necessary to complete an audit, and that's a scary thought. What kind of public company intentionally witholds vital financial information, repeatedly and habitually? A bad one, a crooked one, a scary one.
    I can't believe I bought into this ugly pig way back at $2.50. Once again, the old Wall Street adage "Never try to catch a falling knife" holds to be so very, painfully true.
    I will dump what I have and then watch every day to see what kinds of crooks these executives are. I will hope and pray that there's some major lawsuits and, in a just world, the guys who made this happen will be barred by the SEC from evey participating in a public company again. In a perfect world? Prison.
    Sep 25 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SandRidge: The Hidden Gem Of The Energy Sector [View article]
    I'd be leary of anyone recommending SD on any basis other than a rank flyer. Consistently among the worst performers in this or any sector, with a management team that yields no respect from the industry. Unless it's just a trade that's a coin flip, there are hundreds of better oil and gas companies to chose from.
    Aug 14 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Must Own' Stock For A Natural Gas Rebound [View article]
    I would not hold my breath for XOM to purchase CHK or any of CHK's significant assets. Don't forget that XOM bought XTO and its massive gas reserves at the peak of the gas market and has been trying to justify that acquisition ever since. Not to mention that CHK as a corporation has so much hair on it it's been mistaken for Big Foot.
    The backlog of XTO gas drilling and surfeit of gas production is surely one of the reasons why XOM is looking to export LNG. Now, XOM buying Cheniere, that makes more sense, although I wouldn't hold my breath on that either. XOM's standards for site selection and regulatory approval are second to none in the industry, and it's unlikely they would find everything that Cheniere's done to be up to "Exxon standards". No, I think XOM's got plenty of gas and gas potential, and is more than likely to make this move on their own. Of course, I could be completely wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.
    Jun 5 01:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • GreenHunter Energy (GRH +4.2%), fresh off announcing an enhanced Eagle Ford presence through the development of seven new salt water disposal wells, says it has expanded its Appalachian equipment assets to service oil and gas operators active in the Marcellus and Utica shale plays.  [View news story]
    Very risky, but very high reward. The business plan is entirely solid, servicing the oil and gas producers, and particularly the drillers in resource plays requiring large amounts of water for fracing. Alternatives are few and the demand is great and with no end in sight.
    GRH has wisely diversified into multiple resource plays, including the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Marcellus/Utica, and even a toe-hold in the Mississipian Lime in Oklahoma. They've wisely extended their service offerings to accomodate whatever kind of water management the customer needs. However, the basic money maker is so simple you just need a calculator: Every well drilled in any one of these plays must recycle or dispose of the water produced once it's put on line. Few producers have the time, expertise or incentive to manage their own water when a qualified alternative is knocking on their door. Check GHR's latest investor presentation - they're getting $7-10 per barrel to haul water in the Marcellus, and another $3/bbl to dispose of it. Holy crap! Even if gas prices force a minimum of gas drilling in those segments of the plays, you've still got $90 oil to support continued oil drilling, and the Marcellus, Utica, Eagle Ford, and Bakken all have substantial undrilled oil and/or wet gas potential.
    This is really simple: if you believe in the future of oil and gas, then you can buy the producers, the services companies, or both. In this case a well-funded, well-conceived, well-run service company with huge upside is trading for less than $2/share and belongs in the $6-8 range. I'll take that risk.
    [I am long GRH and intend to buy more when the impact of summer on natgas prices is known]
    May 25 03:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A bull on mortgage REITs, Dividend Master nevertheless unloads American Capital Agency (AGNC) and American Capital Mortgage (MTGE). AGNC's and MTGE's share prices tower by about 10% over their book values ($29.06 and $21.78 respectively, as of 3/31). Expect secondaries soon to "monetize the premium."  [View news story]
    Something I've always wondered: if mREITs typically fall 2 x distribution the day after going ex, is there a group of traders that follow these companies and short them in advance of the ex date? Or to simplify it, how about just selling all your stock before the ex date adn buying it back after? You'd have given up the distribution, but bought back in at a savings of 2x.
    Just when I think I understand this stuff...
    May 22 05:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Many Things To Like About Sandridge Energy [View article]
    Interesting to read people discussing SD like it's a real company. It's not - Tom Ward learned alongside Aubrey how to use smoke and mirrors, only he's not as good at it. SD has now officially changed its business plan twice in the last two years, and the acquisition of Dynamic was a desperate stab. The junk assembled there was uneconomic at $4/MCF (it's 50% gas) and a massive liability now. The whole transaction's a joke throughout the industry and Matt McCarroll is laughing all the way to the bank. Here in the oilpatch there aren't too many companies that engender less respect than SD, for every reason.
    May 8 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy: Buy Into The Weakness Post-Earnings [View article]
    Here's one from the heart of the oil patch, a petroleum engineer with 30+ years of experience in upstream finance and evaluations and a life-long personal investment manager: Aubrey is nothing more than a very aggressive landman. His best deals have always been based on getting to the play first, leasing the fastest for the lowest prices, then leveraging the land position through JVs and asset sales. That's fine, but it's always a quick shot and never sustained growth. If you want to know how badly that can turn out, go back 15 or so years and look at how CHK handled Masters Creek. Aubrey's real value is in finding the next big thing and driving his people to lease, lease, lease. Once he's exhausted his JV capabilities the company's left with "nothing" but the option to drill and produce, like a real company. Two big problems with that: 1) you can't horizontally drill, frac and produce gas properties at $2/MCF (or $3, or even $4). 2) CHK is not particularly good at drilling and producing. The only hope here is that gas prices will begin to recover and the unwashed masses will stream back into CHK because they're always attracted by bright lights and loud noises. But why take the chance that CHK is going to dissolve in Aubrey's mistakes when there are a dozen or more great nat gas companies that are well run and crisis free? Take a look at UPL and compare all meaningful metrics; there's no reason to own CHK.
    May 3 12:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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