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MashieNiblick

MashieNiblick
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  • Equity outflows may be sign of a toppy market [View news story]
    There is now a strong consensus that Fed raises rates mid-year. Quarter point? Half point? It'll just be a blip, but psychologically there has to be some reaction to the first raise in years. This country's debt is NOT sustainable and so many of us are sitting around wondering when the chickens come home to roost.

    How many of us are sitting on 20-30% gains from the last few years? And we all know that we're going to have to lock in those gains soon and are more than ready to do it given half a reason. Half a point is half a reason.

    How many of us know or at least suspect that this aging bull market is past its expiration date? If it's only 20% of us, what happens when that 20% bail on the first threat of inflation? I know that I sit here every day with my finger poised over the sell button, and I'm guessing there are millions more doing the same.
    Mar 5, 2015. 12:30 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Mighty Monthly Pay Dividend Dogs Grab 14.5% To 100.8% Upsides To End February [View article]
    Careful of those energy MLPs. Almost all listed above will make substantial cuts in distributions this year and/or next - some to zero (see recent SA article re JP Morgan's assessment). Check each one out and read what you can find. The only upstream MLP that seems sustainable at current prices is MEMP, but that's not a monthly payer.
    Mar 4, 2015. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Has Lost Its Way, Will We Ever Love It Again? [View article]
    It's McDonald's. McDONALD'S! One of the largest and most successful stories in American corporate history. No one is going to replace food with something digital, as happened to Kodak. Food is here to stay and McDonald's will prove again that they're a relatively fast adapter. This is like when everyone decides Apple is over and the stock goes down 20% - you just buy it!
    Feb 18, 2015. 11:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Diversified, High-Income Bond Portfolio For 2015 [View article]
    This is a well-researched article with a lot of useful information. As usual, whenever I read anything about bond funds, I wonder why more isn't written about NQM (Nuveen Investment Quality Municipal Fund). I've been in this for years and it meets and exceeds many of the criteria of the funds recommended above. Year in and year out, through bull and bear markets, NQM generates about 6.5% TAX FREE income. I don't have the financial sophistication to argue more specifics about this fund, so I will be very interested in any comments that relate NQM to the funds listed above.
    Jan 25, 2015. 07:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Not Adding To The PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund [View article]
    I'm REALLY late to the party, but I'll give you an alternative: NQM. 6.4% tax-free income, very stable, trading well within its 10-year range (excluding 2008, of course). I am long NQM - it's one of my largest holdings.
    Dec 29, 2014. 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BreitBurn Energy Partners: Is The 30% Yield Sustainable? [View article]
    I'm wondering when we start forecasting $50 oil and $3 gas. Those numbers are certainly closer to today's closing prices than the $60 and $3.50 (or higher) used in this and many other analyses.
    Dec 29, 2014. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Memorial Production Partners' $150M Buyback Is A Huge Positive [View article]
    I wish you all knew the guys at MEMP as well as I do. No way John Weinzierl makes a public statement about something this important unless he KNOWS it's safe. It would be hard to exaggerate how careful and prudent these guys are, from their NGP backers on down. I have been in MEMP from the beginning and am loving this chance to grab some more at ridiculous prices. The hedges are real, the companies behind those hedges will stick, and even if they don't, MEMP can offset against debt. A truly beautiful arrangement, and there's no one else in the upstream MLP space that can compare. #Long and loving it!
    Dec 18, 2014. 04:17 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorial Production Partners: Can The Distribution Survive $60 Oil? [View article]
    Brandond - Read further up for an answer to your question about creditworthiness of MEMP's hedge partners.
    Dec 16, 2014. 06:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why Municipal Bonds May Offer More Than Just Tax-Exempt Income [View article]
    I appreciate all the feedback. I have a very simplistic approach (and yes, I realize the hazards of such): Over the last 15 years NQM has generated a solid 6+% tax free income, no matter what. During the crash of 2008 and during the interest rate scare of 2013, prices have stayed reasonably solid and dividends have continued to be paid in the same range. I know that this is superficial yet the proof is in the pudding. As long as this fund pays these dividends through thick and thin, do I have to care about all the other details?
    Dec 9, 2014. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons Why Municipal Bonds May Offer More Than Just Tax-Exempt Income [View article]
    My biggest concern with any of these is that they're pretty sensitive to interest rate concerns. If we fall into a rush of inflation news we can probably expect the same ~25% price decline we saw in 2013, and that's no fun. My acid test for what kind of impact that can have is, of course, 2008 when the world fell apart. Even then, with all of these funds falling 40-60%, they all maintained their dividends, continuing to generate 6-7% (tax free!). During the 2013 crunch there were 25% cuts in the dividends, but with the corresponding price declines they still generated 6%+ in tax-free income.

    I would add to these Invesco funds my favorite, NQM, Nuveen's Investment Quality Municipal Fund. I've looked everywhere for analysis and ratings but it's way under the radar. Yet this $627 Million fund currently pays 6.5% in monthly tax free dividends and correlates strongly with the Invesco funds you've listed. In fact, NQM has done slightly better - since the interest rate crunch that ended in late 2013 it's up a solid 13%, while the Nuveen's are up 10-12%.

    I keep looking for the fatal flaw. My gut tells me that you just can't get this kind of income for long, yet I have been doing it for years. I'd love a real financial analyst to do an in-depth analysis of these funds, and the sub-sector in general. Until then I'm going to just enjoy the cash flow - every month, and tax-free.
    Dec 8, 2014. 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Ltd.: My Game Plan For Tomorrow [View article]
    Ernie Mac - This is one of the most cogent, useful explanations of anything I've ever read on this site, or anywhere for that matter. You need to be writing how-to books for investors, or start a website or something. Seriously, this is some high quality educational information. I'm a follower from now on, can't wait to see what else you can teach me!
    Nov 30, 2014. 02:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy names sharply lower as oil dives below $70 [View news story]
    This site has allowed me to grow from a 5-figure investor to a 7-. Nothing sad or pathetic about that. Oh, and you're a jerk.
    Nov 28, 2014. 12:56 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill Ltd.: My Game Plan For Tomorrow [View article]
    Feels like a temporary bottom right now @ $16. Dead-cat bounce seems likely - that cat fell a LONG way. Nothing you'd want to own for a few years, but maybe a few days?
    Nov 26, 2014. 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EXCO Resources: What Just Happened? [View article]
    Man I love it when good information comes out fast, and this is really good, really fast. Thanks!!
    Oct 2, 2014. 03:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Resource Partners to acquire Eagle Ford oil assets for $225M [View news story]
    Thanks Carl.

    One comment: in the oil and gas industry we use M to denote thousands when talking about reserves and reserve values. I know that's counter intuitive, but that's just the way it's always been.

    Think of the units of measure for natural gas, MCF. That stands for Thousands of Cubic Feet, so there you go. Reserves that would be millions are denoted MM - so 12 Million BOE = 12 MMBOE. And then, to be consistent with our inconsistency, we extend that to money as well. So, for this article ARP paid $225MM for 12 MMBOE.

    Of course, in SA articles you're dealing with a broader spectrum of reader than just oil and gas people, so you correctly default to M = Millions. We oil and gas folks just have to be careful when we read these articles.
    Sep 24, 2014. 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
69 Comments
90 Likes