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MashieNiblick

MashieNiblick
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  • Pioneer Resources Has Great Hedges And A Great Balance Sheet - Why The Rush To Drill? [View article]
    Carl - The curve shown is typical of any horizontal well with a multi-stage frac, and it's not unusual to show this phenomenon on a graph with months on the x-axis. True, the classic type curve is in years, but that would not demonstrate sufficient detail for the initial decline. I do agree that it would've been easy enough to find a good horizontal Permian well as an example, but it wouldn't have changed much.
    Aug 10, 2015. 03:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pioneer Resources Has Great Hedges And A Great Balance Sheet - Why The Rush To Drill? [View article]
    Exactly! Couldn't have said it better myself. The only world where it makes sense to deplete 50% of your reserves into an uneconomic price environment is Wall Street. I'm just waiting for one CEO to grow a pair and announce that they're shutting in all unnecessary production and sending away all unnecessary rigs until oil gets back to solidly profitable levels. It'll be interesting to see how the analysts handle the substantial decline in production that will occur almost instantaneously.
    Aug 10, 2015. 03:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Second Distribution Cut Looks Probable For Memorial Production Partners [View article]
    Daniel, I wish you had said that you were bullish on LINE way back at the beginning of your article. That tells us more about you and your analytics than anything else.
    Aug 10, 2015. 10:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Second Distribution Cut Looks Probable For Memorial Production Partners [View article]
    crl1603 - Sorry, but I must disagree with a couple of your comments. Oil prices have ALWAYS been the dominant driver of supply: higher prices, more drilling, more production. That is both common sense and basic economics. Yes, if oil stays below $60 we may well see failing companies divesting assets at very low prices, but that does not change the ongoing cost of production. The cost of the asset is not a factor in the cost to produce the oil and gas. What WILL happen is that a prolonged period of lower prices will suppress the overall upstream market, this forcing service and supply companies to lower their prices. THAT will have a decided impact on the cost to produce, and we could see an overall reduction in lifting costs of 30-40% if it lasts long enough.
    Lastly, I just don't understand your final comment, that it is wishful thinking that production will go down because it costs more to produce than the income it generates. Perhaps we're not thinking of the same thing, but no business can or will produce any product for long if it costs more to produce than the income it generates. The level of leverage a company has does not impact its cost to produce, nor the income from that production.
    Aug 9, 2015. 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Second Distribution Cut Looks Probable For Memorial Production Partners [View article]
    I have found so many errors in Bloomberg articles that I have stopped reading them. To project oil production in 2020 would take far more expertise and diligence than they have ever demonstrated to me. Furthermore, it's almost impossible because it's primarily dependent on prices (as noted below). Since no one can predict prices, no one can predict future production, beyond a year or two.
    Aug 8, 2015. 07:49 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorial Production Partners Bites The Bullet [View article]
    I have been a constant supporter of MEMP from the beginning, arguing that superior management and best-in-class hedges would rule the day. After these last two quarters, the bloom is off the rose tinted glasses and I will be much more critical of their performance.

    KWealth is right, there's no excuse for higher LOE in this environment. Operating companies across the E&P landscape are seeing 20-30% reductions in costs, although much of that is in D&C. Still, good management knows when to hunker down, and this is hard to understand, and harder still to accept.

    The company did well in 2014 when things were easy, but since the challenges kicked in with these new prices, their response and resulting performance have been less than stellar. Clearly some very hard work and some very hard decisions have to be made to right this ship. I look to Weinzerl and Scarff to get that done, with full kudos if they can, and full blame if they can't.
    Aug 6, 2015. 12:08 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Say Goodbye To The Distribution [View article]
    Ted Waller - MEMP certainly could cut its distribution next - but that's three months away. THIS week, amidst the carnage for upstream E&P that this summer has been, MEMP stood alone with its world-class hedges and world-class management and sustained its whopping distribution (20% yield at the time...!). It would've been easy to cut it in half, gain praise from the analysts, pay down some debt - but that's not what they promised, and unlike Linn, a promise from these execs means a great deal.

    MEMP's down 5% this morning, caught in the backdraft of Linn's self-immolation. I'm close to adding to my position, except I think we're going to see $45/barrel in the next few weeks. Then I'm buying enough MEMP to retire on just the distributions!
    Jul 30, 2015. 12:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorial Production Partners - Get Ready For A Q2 Rebound [View article]
    MEMP just announced that it's maintaining its $0.55 distribution ($2.20/year). That's over 20% ROR.

    Maintaining that rate in this market says as much about management's approach to managing the company as it does about the quality of the assets themselves. I consider both to be refreshingly possitive and reassuring. I am literally proud to be a shareholder.
    Jul 27, 2015. 09:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Glut of gas heading south to narrow region's price premium, analysts say [View news story]
    I don't think we need a link to know that New York has continually shunned fracking, one of the most readily available and proven methods of improving its energy situation.
    Jul 23, 2015. 05:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorial Production Partners - Get Ready For A Q2 Rebound [View article]
    The old adage of "be bold when others are fearful" is at its acid-test level on these MLPs: there's no hope for oil prices, interest rates are going up, there's too much production waiting to come on line, the hedges will all wear off....

    I'm buying more MEMP with every quarterly distribution reinvested. If they maintain their distribution at this price, it's 17%. If they don't, and lower it to a more common 10% range, the market will respond favorably to the prudent reduction. Either way, the company is solid, and you either rake in the insanely high distribution or enjoy a rally in the stock price.

    Of course, I could be completely wrong. This market is insane.
    Jul 18, 2015. 04:42 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorial Production Partners - Get Ready For A Q2 Rebound [View article]
    I love MEMP and have been telling everyone I know about it since the IPO. Recently though, I've read two other analysts that are both concerned with MEMP's debt, one using the current Debt/EBITDA ratio to list MEMP as one of "Five Doomed Oil and Gas Companies". I know there are a lot of short sellers out there willing to say anything to create a quick dip, which may well be the case. Still, I would really appreciate it, and your article would be much more useful, if you could say a few words about MEMP's debt: How does it compare to its peers, why is the Debt/EBITDA ratio so high? Thanks!
    Jun 23, 2015. 05:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources - Making Sense Of The Recent Decline [View article]
    I don't know why MEMP is continually overlooked. Last I checked MEMP beat VNR in most critical categories, yet doesn't even get a mention in this or other MLP articles. MEMP has a 14.5% distribution vs. VNR's 9.4%. YTD MEMP is down 4% and VNR is down 11%. MEMP has the strongest hedges in the upstream MLP space, and most are paired with the option to substitute debt reduction if the hedges are not sustained. Recently Wunderlich rated four MLPs a Buy, including both VNR and MEMP. I'll take the one with the higher distribution and better hedges, thank you.
    Jun 18, 2015. 05:27 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of Montreal: Domestic Banking Remains Challenged, Capital Markets A Key Driver [View article]
    Good summary, thanks. Any thoughts on mass defection of U.S. A&D team to UBS?
    Jun 2, 2015. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Of Seeking Alpha's Best [View article]
    My thoughts exactly.
    May 28, 2015. 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Memorial Production Partners - Time To Take Advantage Of The Recent Secondary? [View article]
    MEMP has proven to be best-in-class, from management to assets to hedges. I've been an investor in this one since the beginning. Every time they make an offering, even dilutive, the stock drops 5-8% and then comes back within a few days or weeks. This one's a no-brainer and I added a nice chunk this morning.
    Apr 9, 2015. 01:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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