I have invested my own money in a wide variety of stocks since I started trading about seven years ago. I have begun to focus on natural resource producers because I am drawn to their extreme cyclicality. I have my own thesis about macroeconomic trends, so I intend to make long-term investments near the bottom, and sell when trends change. I am also quite knowledgeable about gaming and Japan, and am always on the lookout for good deals outside of the resource sector, too.
I graduated from UC Santa Barbara in 2011 with a double major in Japanese and history, with an emphasis on political economists and moral philosophers of the 18th and 19th centuries. I taught English in Japan for four years but now do freelance work writing, teaching, and translating Japanese to English.
Elephant Analytics has an Bachelor of Business Administration degree with a concentration in marketing and finance, and 13 years of experience as an analyst. Elephant Analytics originally focused on marketing and sales analysis due to geographical and lifestyle considerations, but rekindled his interest in finance and investing several years ago and became a contributor to Seeking Alpha in 2013. He has a particular interest in attempting to understand distressed companies and distressed industries.
Elephant Analytics has unique skills in the areas of numerical analysis and applied mathematics. Elephant Analytics achieved a top 50 score on the Bloomberg Aptitude Test (out of nearly 200,000 test takers) which measures financial aptitude. Elephant Analytics also has achieved a score (153) in the 99.98th percentile on the WAIS-III IQ test and has also been involved in multiple teams that have won awards during business and strategy competitions involving numerical analysis. In one such competition, he captained his team to become North American champions, ahead of MBA and undergraduate teams from universities such as Harvard, Yale and Northwestern.
Legal Disclaimer: Elephant Analytics' reports, premium research service and other writings are personal opinions only and should not be considered as investment advice. Only registered investment advisors can provide personalized investment advice. While Elephant Analytics attempts to provide reports that include accurate facts, investors should do their own diligence and fact checking prior to making their own decisions.
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As I'm a long-term investor, I'll highlight some stockpicks which will have a 5-7 year investment horizon. As I strongly believe a portfolio should consist of a mixture of dividend-paying stocks and growth stocks, my articles will reflect my thoughts on this mixture.
I could put on this bio my education, work experience, investment strategy, and a nice thin (if I can find one) picture of me in a suit looking *smart*. Sorry but that's not my intent here. Sure I invest, help family make financial decisions, and make a ton of mistakes along the way. But my time spent here is to give all a formula for a well rounded view of fellow investors ideas and recommendations.
My goal is to have posters and investors educate one another so that eventually everyone has the opportunity to make money !! We should all have that same end game. Put the daily noise aside and think "outside the box" !!
I find investments are very different and difficult in these extremely Interesting Times!! We hear whispers of manipulation. QE'S that have never been done before. Then we have a template experiment in Cyprus to see the worlds reaction. I just ask everyone to sit back and ask themselves " 10 years ago would we even have thought a Cyprus could occur? "
Tossing ideas around is always fun....Authors posting their links on our blog is welcomed as well. Newbies with questions are urged to post. Either you learn from the answers or have asked a question no one has thought of . Either way that is EDUCATING !!
So feel free to join us !!
Stephan Bogner is mining analyst at Rockstone Research, he has independently analyzed capital markets and resource stocks for more than 11 years. He is also CEO at Elementum International AG of Switzerland trading precious metals and storing them in a high-security vaulting facility within the St. Gotthard Mountain Massif in Central Switzerland which is a duty-free zone. Bogner earned his degree in economics in 2004 at the International School of Management in Dortmund, Germany. He spent five years in Dubai brokering and reselling physical commodities and now resides in Zurich, Switzerland.
Diplom-Kaufmann Stephan Bogner began his academic studies in economics at the International School of Management in Dortmund (Germany) and was one of many who was hooked by the thrilling lectures of Professor Bocker on economic and monetary systems. Yet he was (and still is) the only student of the university that wrote a diploma thesis on precious metals as a protection against inflation (“Gold in a macroeconomic context with special consideration of the price formation process”) that was completed in 2002 under the supervision of Professor Bocker. Mr Bogner specialised in Finance & Asset Management, Production & Logistics and International Law & Entrepreneurship. He also studied at the European Business School in London (UK) and the University of Queensland in Brisbane (Australia).
In 2003, he started working closely with Ferdinand Lips, among others to publish and market his latest bestseller (“Gold Wars – The Battle Against Sound Money As Seen From A Swiss Perspective“) in the German-speaking countries. He revised and translated the English version into German (“Die Gold Verschwörung”). In 2004, he went to work at the biggest gold market in the world (Dubai), where he started up two companies that were specialised in re-selling and brokering physical commodities and consulting with publicly-listed mining companies. Moreover, he was co-founder and, until late 2006, partner of the first German silver stockletter and online information platform (Silberinfo.com) besides dealing with coins and bars.
Mr Bogner is an active analyst for several research firms, institutional and private investors and family offices, mainly for the analysis and valuation of capital markets and publicly-listed companies with a focus on geology, exploration, development and production of resource deposits. Since years, he lives in Zurich (Switzerland) and regularly publishes articles in German and English about economic contexts, currencies, commodities and companies active in exploration and mining of natural resources worldwide.
Ph.D. economics and Finance MBA finance
Globe Institute of Technology
Professor – Economics and Finance, Chair of Business Department
Colorado Technical University
Adjunct Professor – courses: Applied Managerial Finance (Graduate Level), Microeconomics, International Finance
European School Of Economics (New York Campus)
Adjunct Professor – Economics (Graduate Level) Courses taught: Microeconomics
Metropolitan College of New York
Adjunct Professor – Economics, Banking and Finance
Courses taught: History of Economic Thought, Macroeconomics, Money and Financial Institutions
World Gold Council
New York, NY
• Constructed econometric models relating to gold's role as a portfolio diversifier primarily aimed at institutional investors.
• Focused on models of the embedded optionality of gold in terms of its relation to other investment assets and economic fundamentals such as inflation and business conditions.
Founder and President, Internet Startup company with polling and investment advice websites.
Fundamental Portfolio Advisors, Inc.
Chief Portfolio Strategist – President
• At the predecessor company I started the New York Muni Fund, the first single state triple tax-free municipal bond fund.
• I took the fund from a one-employee start-up where I performed every function to a family of mutual funds which had five funds with total assets above $300 million and which did all of its distribution, accounting and transfer in-house.
• I wrote the initial prospectus and was responsible for managing the portfolios of what eventually grew to be a family of 5 mutual funds.
• Was chief economist for parent company’s brokerage affiliate.
• Involved on the buy-side in the development and monitoring of various structured municipal finance products. Worked with major issuers such as New York City and major investment banks such as Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs.
• Designed and submitted a U.S. Patent Application for a portfolio management system for mutual funds involving derivatives.
Note: In 1996 Fundamental Portfolio Advisors and myself were subject to civil litigation by the SEC which resulted in deregistration and a permanent bar from the securities industry.
A. Gary Shilling & Co.
Senior Economist – Vice President
Economic consulting, modeling and forecasting. Both macro and micro.
• Clients included: Emerson Electric, Bethlehem Steel, Castle & Cooke, Cooper Industries and the U.S. Department of Transportation.
• I was the author of the 1979 study commissioned by the U.S. Government Interstate Commerce Commission, which calculated the expected economic impact of trucking deregulation.
White, Weld & Co, Inc.
• White, Weld was the sixth largest investment banking and brokerage firm when Merrill Lynch bought it.
• Extensive work was done on the All-American Pipeline Proposal to tap the Alaskan Gas Reserves.
• The economics department of White, Weld formed A. Gary Shilling & Co. at the time of the Merrill Lynch merger.
American Stock Exchange
New York University
June 1978 Ph.D.
• Ph.D. dual field, economics and finance.
• Doctoral dissertation was in contingency claims (options) theory
June 1973 MBA with concentration in economics and finance
NYU Engineering School
June 1971 Bachelor of Science - Nuclear Engineering Tau Beta Pi
Analysis of the Embedded Inflation Optionality in Gold Prices. World Gold Council, 2000. New York, N.Y.
The Economic Impact of Trucking Deregulation. Interstate Commerce Commission, 1979, Washington D.C.
My greatest strengths as an investor are that I have a love for what I do. At age 20 I was trading in the forex markets. Learnt alot about macro-economics. This gradually lead me to the stock market. In 2003 I bought my first stock. That stock was SilverWheaton. I am a long term stock holder. After countless hours of research and having been in the market for over 10 years now I have outperformed the major indexes by always having a top down market view. I start with central bank involvment. This is the new game in town. I believe one must understand the bond market to understand the stock market. Start with the largest trend and work your way down to the sector, companies themselves, quarterly financial study, and finally I devise a plan on when to sell, double down or hold. I never buy a stock without a plan. I am also an avid chess player and poker player wich I believe helps me in my stock picking. I assess risk and reward with my own formula. I consider myself a good stock picker because I love the stock market. If you love what you do... It is not work. Its fun.
If you got burned in the past at junior mining investments by overly positive newsletter writers, sell side analysts or other (paid) sources which more often than not avoid to mention (hidden) risks or critical flaws, The Critical Investor goes a few steps further, and might provide a fresh, more in-depth, unbiased and critical vision on things, hence the name. For examples of those risks or flaws just think of management overpromising and underdelivering, inactivity, shortfalls in cash, windowdressing, bad trackrecords, negative trends on AISC/cash flows/production grades, depleting reserves without renewal, tricky accounting, bad financing terms, permitting issues, commodity issues like possible equilibrium shifts, too much supply coming online, location issues (climate, local opposition, politics), infrastructure, currency effects, influence of investment groups behind the scenes, project economics not up to standards, companies being overvalued based on important but avoided metrics, etcetcetc.
Being an insider of the sector, talking frequently to industry participants (company management, analysts, fund managers, investment bankers, etc), provides for up to standard insights and useful feedback. By analyzing lots of technical reports, analyst reports, economic studies, interviews, articles and other sources, The Critical Investor has developed extensive knowledge about deposits and projects, which often proves to be useful for identifying threats or opportunities.
Avid and critical mining and mining related stock investor from Europe. Number cruncher, looking for high quality companies, mostly growth/turnaround/catalyst-driven to avoid too much dependence/influence of long term commodity pricing/market sentiments, and often additional long term deep value. About the new Subscriber service: I do write freely available analysis on a few portfolio stockpicks, but most of them are only accessible to subscribers.
Open to research assignments, individual portfolio advise, all related to mining.
Disclaimer: I am no certified financial advisor so always do your own due diligence on possible investments.
I worked in New York's financial sector for almost exactly 20 years, mostly as a healthcare analyst (drugs, biotech, and medical devices), but also as an assistant research director, portfolio manager, and options strategist. My last formal job had me in charge of Value Line's premium priced "Select" and "Special Situation" products. The former highlights the company's top stock pick of each month and the latter introduces relatively small companies. I quit that job in June, 2009 for reasons that a dozen or so confidentiality agreements preclude my discussing. In September of that year, I launched 3DimensionalResearch.com (3DR), which allows me to continue doing what I was doing previously.
I am a strong believer in maximum transparency, in both personal and business relationships. So, in that vein:
A google search will show that my former employer sued 3DR and me in November, 2009 for copyright infringement, hot news misappropriations, and the proverbial kitchen sink. Although a search won't show this, unfortunately, I represented myself in a federal courtroom in December and, in accordance with the judge's instructions, the case was settled in a matter of minutes.
Additional Disclosure: 3DR has been a financial failure thus far, in terms of getting subscribers. I detest marketing and few people want to pay for information anymore, least of all from a no-name website. That said, the vast majority of my recommendations have done very well and my personal portfolio is doing extraordinarily well (65.5% in 2013) since I tend to follow most of my own recommendations, the "event driven special situations," in particular.
My goal is to bring exposure to business development companies (BDCs) that finance small to medium sized businesses, typically overlooked by banks. BDCs are an instrument for investors to earn healthy dividends by avoiding double taxation at the corporate level and allowing income to flow directly to each shareholder. Please see website link below for more information.
Maredin Capital Advisors (Maredin) is a boutique, independent, Registered Investment Advisor, based in Miami, Florida. It was founded in 2005 by Marcelo Zinn and is based on the Value Investing philosophy founded by Benjamin Graham and popularized by his most famous student Warren Buffett.
At Maredin we pride ourselves on delivering financial services/products which help people and firms attain their financial goals. This is done through consultation with our clients, independent research and analysis, and a clear focus on long-term results.
Maredin manages three funds and Separately Managed Accounts ("SMA"). Each fund is intended for a specific audience yet share the same manager and philosophy.
Investor with more than 5 years experience trading commodities, gold and silver miners, exploration companies, oil and gas, platinum and other hard assets.
The investment style is part contrarian/value and I actively seek investments in distressed sectors.
Albert Sung is the author of Correlation Economics, monitoring breaking economic news on a day to day basis.
He started investing in 2008 because of the economic crisis and holds a masters degree in chemical engineering. Previously, he worked several years as a process engineer at Ashland, a competitor of Dow Chemical. Today, he works as a regulatory compliance consultant at J&J, but his real passion will stay in macro-economics.
His experience in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry allows him to monitor the economy from a process engineering standpoint, analyzing macro-economic charts, correlations and trends.
I focus on the microcap space (market cap below $250 million) because it is one of the most inefficient and "alpha rich" areas of the global equity market, which provides the greatest opportunity to generate alpha through fundamental research.
I use a bottom up, investment decision making process. The ideal investment has an asymmetric risk/return profile with a limited downside (e.g. high net cash balance, strong cash flow) and significant upside (e.g. asset value extraction, overlooked business model transition).
Microcaps are particularly attractive to the following groups:
Activist investors. A small absolute investment (on a dollar basis) can be leveraged into a relatively large position (as a percentage of shares outstanding), which provides a greater ability to demand change.
Private equity firms. The persistent microcap discount can be “arbed away” via an LBO with the new owners accruing all of the gains for themselves. The small absolute size of many microcaps on an EV basis significantly expands the number of firms able to pursue this strategy.
This inefficiency exists for several reasons.
A lack of analyst coverage due to lower trading volume (less soft dollars from HF/MF), the global settlement that permanently severed the link between research/banking and the rise in electronic trading/decimalization. Moreover, none of these trends are likely to reverse for the foreseeable future (if ever).
A lack of institutional products given the natural capacity constraint for new/existing managers.
An inability to effectively implement a passive approach (e.g. ETFs, index funds) due to the lower liquidity and wider bid/ask spread. However, each of these obstacles can be overcome by using a combination of electronic trading tools (e.g. algos) and patience in building a positive size.
Inaccurate and persistent misconceptions about microcaps (e.g. they are riskier than larger cap stocks).
I currently trade for my personal account but would like to move into the investment management side of the industry.
Individual investor for 30 years, now Full-Time. MD degree. Trade daily. Long stocks only, and call options, mainly LEAPs, which I consider to be long term investments. I am a patient investor. My core is biopharma, with a few biotechs: Together, these comprise about 75% of my portfolio, and include some large core biopharmas, as well as aggressive emerging biopharmas, which I call my "Baby Bios." Of these, DEPO has sprouted wings. Others have been active of late. There is also eclectic diversification, with some retail, clothing, tech, software.. I trade daily, and look for newly listed options. [Please note that there is no check box for "Healthcare" in the "Your Interests" section].
Semi-retired marketing and sales executive with a second career in the travel business. Actively invest an upper six digit portfolio in half a dozen mutual funds as well as a couple of stock brokerages accounts, most of it IRA. Primary goal is income with some appreciation potential.
Red Acre applies value investing principles to mirco-cap and binary event investing.
Our Chief Investment Officer is Rajesh Patel. Prior to Red Acre, Rajesh was a Member of Technical Staff with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, (MIT) Lincoln Laboratory where he analyzed the strategic value of emerging technologies to enhance the capabilities of the U.S. Military. Rajesh holds a Ph.D. in Applied Physics from the University of California, Davis, a Master's in Environmental Science from Rice University and bachelors degrees in both Physics and English from the University of Connecticut.
Red Acre's investment style is to look for opportunities where the intrinsic value of a stock is likely to go through a dramatic transition due to some future event about which we can predict an outcome relying on our research and due diligence experience. We are patient investors and are comfortable with having time horizons of several months to over a year for our investment thesis to fully play out.
I have retired from a 35 years career in the semiconductor industry. I now have the time to do the deep research necessary for successful investing.
I freely provide investment information for friends and family.
I am a member of MENSA, which means precisely nothing except I wake up in the middle of the night doing pointless math problems in my head:)
Natty Greene is an avid investor who is always on the hunt for undiscovered small cap gems benefitting from secular growth trends with an eye toward those stocks with increased insider or institutional ownership and potential acquisition targets.
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QTR's ARTICLES ARE BOUND BY SA'S CONTRIBUTOR POLICY IN ADDITION TO THIS ENTIRE LENGTHY, YET EXTREMELY PERTINENT ADD ON DISCLOSURE, WHICH SERVES AS BOTH A STANDALONE DISCLOSURE AND AN AMENDMENT TO ANY AND ALL DISCLOSURES ALREADY PRESIDING OVER SEEKING ALPHA:
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(i.e. This are solely my personal thoughts and opinions)
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I am not a stockbroker or financial adviser. I am a casual investor making casual observations for the purpose of discussion and open communication and analysis of companies and stocks. All articles are my opinion only and are not suggestions to buy or sell any equity, bond, option or other financial instrument. QTR may have long or short positions in any tickers mentioned at any time and reserves the right to open, close, or modify positions at all time without notice. My conclusions are the result of my personal due diligence and have been wrong in the past. There are tons of unqualified people out there offering up financial advice and its your responsibility to sort through the BS. You don't hit the button to fill my orders and I don't hit yours, so no whining or praising over stocks covered by me.
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Born in 1934 in Malden ,Ma
Boston University School of Management--Bs in Ba-Accounting Major--1956
Harvard Business School-MBA-Finance and Marketing--1961
Worked as an accountant,business owner,vp of major corporation,consultant,finance instructer
at Boston College--1956-1978
Worked as investment manager for high net worth individuals and others--1978-2011
Industries employed in--investments,food service,real estate,automatic merchandising,banking,finance,financial planning
At StockSaints, we believe the best edge presents opportunity when discipline and timing are allowed to flourish, developing a systematic approach to capital allocation. Variables outside of any given company may influence entire sectors and industries in ways that warrant great care and consideration. With over 50 years of combined market insight, we are uniquely positioned to share our full understanding of the mechanics of the auction marketplace, the emotion and crowd psychology that drives prices, and the methods that produce repeatable results over time. Each trade has two parties, you and your counter-party, only one is correct in their decision.
I apologize to investors who follow my articles, but I no longer expect to submit the newer articles I previously mentioned as forthcoming. I don't currently plan to resume any involvement with SA, though that may eventually change, if the site ever implements/enforces deterrents to web stalkers. For now, I only publicly share opinions on stocks via Twitter, StockTwits, etc. The rest of what follows is my normal profile, so I won't have to rewrite it, should I ever continue posting on SA. Best of luck investing. Cheers. I run a small family office managing long-term portfolios and special projects beyond the capital markets. I'm fortunate to have worked for a NYSE-traded financial firm for the decade through 2010, but I am not an adviser, my articles only share our investing actions/opinions, and they are not investment advice. Proof is in the pudding, so here are our stock portfolio returns from the most recent five years: 2012 +32%, 2013 +52%, 2014 +11%, 2015 +14%, and 2016H1 +12.7% (those are just capital gains, but all holdings pay dividends). Returns are moderating as expected, since most positions were rebuilt/opened in 2010-2012 at extreme undervaluation levels, yet only a few new positions have been opened each of the last few years at moderate undervaluation levels. I also trade around core positions for short-term profits, but I do not include trade gains in portfolio return tracking, and my articles are strictly about long-term investing. My investing career started in the 1980s, and the transition to full-time was finalized in 2009. I only list returns from 2012 because that's when I became most active on SA, and calls can be verified here. For 2008-2011, my focus was shorter-term trades, which made total annual returns harder to tally, so without wasting time backtracking, I can only say returns were worthwhile. For most years prior, I was a blue-chip-only, buy-and-hold guy, which also worked well, so I still own most of those stocks in accounts separate from our actively-managed portfolios.