TomF75

For Your Amusement: General Motors' Restructuring Plan

Is it really any surprise to anyone, that both of these zombies have their hands out already for more money. The govt should create one large company, call it Zombie Automotive & Finance, and throw C, GM, and Chrysler in it.

Then the govt can throw the finance wing TARP money, which can then be used to finance the cars sales, and the inventory that doesn't sell can be bought back by the government, and sent overseas as "Economic Aid" to some underpoverished 3rd world countries, or used as fleet vehicles for the Feds, then everyones happy...Best of all the taxpayer gets stiffed coming and going, its amazing no one on Capitol Hill has thought of this one already.

How the States Are (Barely) Coping

Actually, it looks like not even 1/2 dozen states use any calculation of federal taxes in your state tax burden:

www.taxfoundation.org/...

I found 4, and 6 others don't have income tax.

As many other posters have stated their problems have to do with over spending during the boom, and ridiculously generous pension payouts to employees (my Moth-in-Law worked for 36 yrs, and retired @ 58 on 85% salary + COLA...if she lives to 84 [which according to SS Mortuary Tables she has a 50% chance of doing] she will have spent 2/3 of her working life in retirement, earning near her full salary), its an unfortunate fact that most state & municipal workers today have their heads in the sand if they think their benefits will be anywhere near as generous.

Barring any major demographic or economic shift to the positive, I suspect within 10-15 years the state & muni pension will go the way of the private industry pension.

I didn't do any research, but I find it hard to believe in this area PA, NJ, NY and DE have NOT seen expenditures grow at a significantly higher rate than CPI and Pop growth.


On Feb 17 01:44 PM Just Say Whoa! wrote:

> "The simple fact is that the states overspent during the boom..."
>
>
> That's not a fact!
>
> Actually, the states all tax people as a % of Federal. Federal taxes
> go down, state taxes go down. That's the "simple fact" you were looking
> for.
>
> The Fed over taxcut the states.
>
> If you look at actual spending, after inflation, adjusted for population
> growth, you won't one state that substantially increased it's spending.
>
>
> Not one.
>

How the Crash Will Reshape America

Actually, everything I'm reading says that Gen Y will be the generation that moves back into the cities. They are looking for a less ostentatious lifestyle than their spoiled boomer parents, and want the benefits of living close to the city center. Urban gentrification in many small to mid size cities will probably be the next wave in the real estate boom. As a person living in the Exurbs of NYC, I'm actually a little scared that 20 years from this place will be a ghost town...be it high gas prices, lower real estate in the city...whatever the catalyst will be, doing a 50-60 mile commute at some point just becomes ridiculous.


On Feb 14 12:22 PM henarl wrote:

> The current generations will not easily give up their suburban McMansions
> and fancy automobiles as they have grown up with the belief that
> such material wealth is the badge of success and self esteem. It
> will take a lot of pain and several generations for a new less ostentatious
> lifestyle to become acceptable, let alone desireable, to the majority
> of adult Americans.

Four Myths About the Obama / Geithner Plan

Preach on Jegan!!! I'm Disciple of the 1994 revolution, who feels disgusted and let down by the garbage of the last decade. Looks like the only thing that changed since '94 is the size of the budget defeicit.


On Feb 12 07:41 PM jegan ;-) wrote:

> So far, I approve of Obama's approach. I like a guy that doesn't
> sugar-coat the truth. We had enough of that the last 8 years. I'm
> not sure how anyone that listens to what is said can misunderstand
> his statement that there is no easy fix for our problems. For that
> matter, why would any adult think otherwise?
>
> jegan
>
> Disclosure : I used to vote Republican. When the GOP considers the
> needs of the people of the US, than lining their friend's pockets
> and chasing the God vote, I might consider changing back. Somewhere
> it is written "Of the people, by the people and for the people."

The Economy: How to Tell When It's Improving

As Jay-Dawg said its 1% growth. Not too mention its 1% growth at what cost? If that "growth" was the result from 50-75% post-xmas sales/BK Liquidations etc. IMHO that's hardly good news.

Additionally the 25% drop in forclosures is the DIRECT result of the Freddie & Fannie foreclosure moratoriums during the holidays.

I wish the news were better, but like the author I think we're in for a rough year, not too mention thanks to the increase in money supply, when V does excelerate, I think the Fed will have to put the brakes on so fast that there's a good chance to kill the recovery will be DOA. Govt intervention or not, I think it'll be at least 2012/2013 before we can ring the all clear bell.

On Feb 13 12:48 PM Good News Economist wrote:

> Rick,
>
> I enjoyed the article but have to disagree with your analysis of
> what is actually happening right now...

Another Round of Farcical Congressional Hearings

These ignoramuses (spelling?) are pathetic! Makes me long for a good bout of dictatorship!! could it really be that much worse than watching a circus of criminal & incompetant Congressmen scold a bunch of criminal & greedy (also some incompetants as well) CEO's. Hey but at least they fixed baseball!!

Starbucks Lacks Direction and Soul

Back when I used to have an Expense account, I was religous in my devotion to Starbucks (usually 3x's per week). Now with no expense account, and having to pay for my own coffee, MCD and Dunkin's coffee taste ALOT better than it used too.

Can We Go Back to the Old Wall Street?

I agree. Not to mention the fact that by definition it will forbid the creation of "To Big to Fail Entities". Is it any wonder BAC & C are having trouble. If you take several commodity businesses (Thrift, I-Banking, Insurance, mortgages) and merge them together you're just as likely to get one large commoditized organization that is more bureaucratic, less specialized, and in all likelyhood less customer focused.

Not too mention in the cases of the GS, MS, LEH's of the world it removes the "pressure" of pleasing the stockholders, when under the original model the stockholders are all employees, and will probably act more in accordance with sound risk management (e.g. self preservation) than they did under the current models

The Next American Revolution: Main Street vs. Wall Street

Not unlike AIG "having" to fork over $400 Million to keep their "brightest talent" in their derivatives unit from "going somewhere else". To steal a quote from Marie Antoinette..."Let them eat cake!".

I'd love to be a fly on the wall during an interview with one of these jokers:

HR REP: Thank you Mr. X for taking the time today. So tell me a bit about your responsibilities at AIG

MR. X: Well as a Quant on the Derivatives Desk, I was responsible for the creation, and trading of the firms MBS, CDS, and CDO's.

HR REP: OK Great! Well that concludes our interview today. Do you have any questions for me? No, great then. Don't call us, We'll call you!! Er-r I mean, we'll be in touch. Thanks have a great day.


On Feb 03 09:57 AM frosty wrote:

> Bonuses began life as 'performance bonuses' and were given only to
> those who demonstrated exceptional performance compared to challenging
> objectives. Of late, they have become entitlements in the financial
> industry to the tune that after a year when the financial industry
> drove the entire world to the brink of a depression, the average
> wall street bonus is DOUBLE the median family income! Pay to retain
> these 'most capable', 'brightest', 'best performing' people? Sorry,
> they should all be fired for the poor performance they contributed
> to! And they should give back prior year bonuses! Personally, I'm
> getting burned twice - I took big stock losses from several of these
> firms and now I have to give them tax money! OK - if they take tax
> money, they work for the government and should be put on the civil
> service pay scale.

BofA's Merrill Purchase: Good for America, Bad for Them

Before we go declaring Ken Lewis a saint with full honors from the Vatican, LETS GET REAL!! If John Thain could "pull the wool" over Mr. Lewis' eyes than maybe he isn't sophisticated enough to be running a "Financial Supermarket". What his excuse for overpaying for that pig Countrywide. Was he just soo enamored of Mr. Mozillo's tan that he had to gobble up the whole company when almost everyone with a brain new we were in the first few innings of a major crap storm.

Ken Lewis didn't buy ML to "Save America" he bought it b/c he was scared of getting left in the dust by WFC and JPM when the storm clears, plain and simple. The difference is both WFC and JPM were smart enough to wait until AFTER their "partners/victims" were seizied by the Feds to pony up the $$$ to make the deal.

Housing Price Decline: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet

VNO (Vornado) also has significant holdings commercial & retail in NYC Metro.


On Feb 02 04:33 PM User 345288 wrote:

> interesting, but what's the trade? is there a NY specific short real
> estate etf? I know of things like SRPIX but this is not NY-specific.

The End of the U.S. As We Know It: Tracking the Dollar Downward

Just what every Canadian has always wanted...A share of the massive US Federal Deficit!! NOT!!!

We spent it, we're stuck with it!!


On Feb 02 11:23 AM MichaelJ007 wrote:

> Paco, I agree with many of your comments. Inflation WILL occur, hyper-inflation
> is very possible. I am in complete agreement that the US, like the
> fallen nations/currencies before, is in complete denial of it's ability
> to sustain itself. However, I think that if and when the US economy
> collapses the shift will be towards that of unity instead of division.
> As in the North American Union or something to that extent. We will
> need more citizens to share and repay our debt burden as well as
> more means of production and consumption so that the Gov can continue
> to grow(spend) and consume(tax). The Federal Government is NOT stepping
> off the throne anytime soon and an alliance of some sort is much
> more beneficial and therefore likely than an overthrow or dissolution.

The End of the U.S. As We Know It: Tracking the Dollar Downward

Apparently the author is unaware that the govts of NY and Cali are more bankrupt than the USA itself. Additionally NY has the highest level of OUT migration in the nation. California ALSO has a huge OUT migration, the only that keeps it population going up is the massive immigration from Mexico.


On Feb 01 04:17 PM donzelion wrote:

> "Now, remind me again why these economic blocs [Texas, NY, and California]
> would want to remain in a bankrupt union whose currency has failed?"
>
>
> I guess since without the union, New York would be a province of
> Canada and California/Texas would be part of North Mexico, it's sort
> of a moot point. I suspect there's quite a few folks left who realize
> that there are ties and bonds that go deeper than even what looters
> and lobbyists can pillage.

Five Missing Pieces to the Stimulus Plan

I think you hit the nail on the head. According to my math TARP + Stimulus = $1.525 Trillion. That works out to about $5,083/person (assuming 300M Americans).

Here's a novel idea, send me & my wife a check for $10,166 and I guarantee we'll do a better job stimulating the economy than either of these two boondoggles has or will accomplish!!


On Jan 29 09:46 PM Captainess wrote:

> Should also add in eliminating pork barrel spending and special interest
> projects. Supposedly $650 million more on digital tv conversion coupons??
> Are we going to pay Oprah to star in more ads warning about the perils
> of not getting the right tv? Hey, how about giving that $650 mil
> to everyone to just buy a new tv for some direct stimulus...

Dividend Stocks: The Good, The Bad and the Ugly

About a week or 2 ago PFF popped up on my radar screen. As of this writing, I see a dividend of 10.62%. HOWEVER, when I dug deeper I noticed that not "some" but "most" of the stocks are financial related...76% to be exact (the rest utilities). I'm not ready to trust any of these banks, since even the "good ones" (e.g. BAC) seem to still have scary $hit hiding in their balance sheets somewhere...Invest @ your own peril!!


On Jan 30 09:04 AM hazenyc wrote:

> if you're looking for a more diversified high-dividend-yield there
> are too good ETFs that have 11-14% yield and have been trading fairly
> stabily over the recent bloodletting.. tickers are:
> PFF and PGF ..
> they both contain preferreds, corporate bonds and shares in the ETF..
> disclaimer: some of the companies are kinda toxic but certainly outperforming
> their common share counterparts - includes the likes of WFC, USB,
> FCX, C, MET, ABN, JPM, C, MS, GS, ING etc
> so just an idea to play with!