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  • How the US Slowdown Is Slowing Down China [View article]
    paultaut & Lynn seem to provide conflicting data. What's the latest info for total export as a percentage of China's GDP? I remembered several years ago it was closer to 35%, this may have grown higher. If export to US alone constitute 20% of China;s GDP as paultaut said, then if can not be only 21% of total export as Lynn said, unless total export constitute almost 100% of China's GDP. Unlikely.

    With EU & Japan also falling into recession, most of China's key markets are affected, but probably not by as much as people think because of the down-market shift by consumers in US & Japan.

    I hope Prof. Pettis can assigned one of his grad student look into what peercentage of the export to GDP will be 'at risk' under different rates of global recession. And how much China's internal demand growth can absorb those at risk exports.
    Oct 06 01:05 am |Rating: 0 0
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