HaavBline's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/251597/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/175193-investing-in-china-why-the-nine-nations-matter?source=feed#comment-777306 777306
Regarding the appearance for regional officials to neglect comparative strengths and pursue the same 'pillar industries' identified by the central goverment, I think there is probably more stories to it. China continue to be contrained by the severe damages resulted from the Cultural Revolution, most high-level officials are likely to be in their 50s-60s, the lost generation that missed their prime education opportunities in the 1960s-70s and owned got remedy educations at best. It is easier to get central funding and less risky for them to follower central goverment guidance when making provincial and local development plans.

This situation probably creates an excellent opportunity for entreprenuers to take advantage of the real regional comparative strengths neglected by the regional goverments and since the goverment allocates resources to pillar industries, it presents lots of opportunites for Private Equity to fill the vacuum and profit handsomely.]]> Wed, 25 Nov 2009 12:36:46 -0500
Regarding the appearance for regional officials to neglect comparative strengths and pursue the same 'pillar industries' identified by the central goverment, I think there is probably more stories to it. China continue to be contrained by the severe damages resulted from the Cultural Revolution, most high-level officials are likely to be in their 50s-60s, the lost generation that missed their prime education opportunities in the 1960s-70s and owned got remedy educations at best. It is easier to get central funding and less risky for them to follower central goverment guidance when making provincial and local development plans.

This situation probably creates an excellent opportunity for entreprenuers to take advantage of the real regional comparative strengths neglected by the regional goverments and since the goverment allocates resources to pillar industries, it presents lots of opportunites for Private Equity to fill the vacuum and profit handsomely.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173475-china-consequences-of-the-sleeping-lion-awakened?source=feed#comment-762215 762215
Go to India and you will know what I mean instantly.


On Nov 16 09:23 AM Tony Petroski wrote:

> The title said "Consequences of the Sleeping Lion Awakened."
>
> I missed reading anything about that. Instead I read an article touting
> the mightiness of China and the Chinese economy.
>
> Note to the communist handlers: In english the phrase is "sleeping
> giant."]]> Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:25:38 -0500
Go to India and you will know what I mean instantly.


On Nov 16 09:23 AM Tony Petroski wrote:

> The title said "Consequences of the Sleeping Lion Awakened."
>
> I missed reading anything about that. Instead I read an article touting
> the mightiness of China and the Chinese economy.
>
> Note to the communist handlers: In english the phrase is "sleeping
> giant."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173468-china-s-nine-nations?source=feed#comment-762183 762183
"And it’s just the tip of the iceberg — I hope to expand on this framework and explore it further ...."

That would be great. Anxiously awaits. Huge subjects, so much to explore.

As China tries to spread developments to the whole country, how effectively are they removing the internal trade barriers that existed among provinces/regions. How are these internal integrations developing? and how much do they create new opportunities and new challenges that would support the future growth of China driven by internal growth? As we now demand China to do?

Some regions are on the verge of being transformed in new directions by new drivers of inter East Asian Integration. The Southwest 'Shangri-La', the poorest region in China, seems to be stirring with the coming full implementation of the China-ASEAN FTA.]]> Mon, 16 Nov 2009 12:06:47 -0500
"And it’s just the tip of the iceberg — I hope to expand on this framework and explore it further ...."

That would be great. Anxiously awaits. Huge subjects, so much to explore.

As China tries to spread developments to the whole country, how effectively are they removing the internal trade barriers that existed among provinces/regions. How are these internal integrations developing? and how much do they create new opportunities and new challenges that would support the future growth of China driven by internal growth? As we now demand China to do?

Some regions are on the verge of being transformed in new directions by new drivers of inter East Asian Integration. The Southwest 'Shangri-La', the poorest region in China, seems to be stirring with the coming full implementation of the China-ASEAN FTA.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173440-will-china-s-growth-be-maintained-by-government-stimulus-alone?source=feed#comment-761248 761248 Sun, 15 Nov 2009 17:17:55 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173435-how-taiwan-is-the-alternative-china?source=feed#comment-761239 761239 Sun, 15 Nov 2009 17:05:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/173265-chinese-exports-can-emerging-markets-replace-the-u-s-consumer?source=feed#comment-759415 759415
By volume and value terms, China-EM trade is and will continue to be only a fraction of China-US trade. But China is pursuing this trade because from China's viewpoint, they see much opportunity that foreign observers can not see from trade volume stats alone.

China-EM trade is growing at a much faster pace then China-US or China-EU trades. For example, China-Africa trade grew at 40% pace in 2008 while trades to OECD countries were tanking. So the China-EM trade growth volume could be comparable in the near future even though total trade volume remains much smaller. This is the part stat and chart readers can easily project and comprehend.

The qualitative element is this: China enjoy much better terms and quality in its China-EM trades comparing to China-US or China-EU trades. China-US trades, for example, consist of a very high percentage of foreign owership, in the form of brand names, sales channels, IP, even export factory management. In this trade relationship, US gets the tuna steak while China gets the fish bones, so to speak.

In China-EM trades, on the other hand, much of Chinese owership is involved. From financing, infrastructure service to brands, to IP to factory, there are much less western involvement ('taxing' from Chinese standpoint). It may be lowly smelts, comparing to pricey tuna, but China gets much of the fish meat rather than just the bones.]]> Fri, 13 Nov 2009 17:45:50 -0500
By volume and value terms, China-EM trade is and will continue to be only a fraction of China-US trade. But China is pursuing this trade because from China's viewpoint, they see much opportunity that foreign observers can not see from trade volume stats alone.

China-EM trade is growing at a much faster pace then China-US or China-EU trades. For example, China-Africa trade grew at 40% pace in 2008 while trades to OECD countries were tanking. So the China-EM trade growth volume could be comparable in the near future even though total trade volume remains much smaller. This is the part stat and chart readers can easily project and comprehend.

The qualitative element is this: China enjoy much better terms and quality in its China-EM trades comparing to China-US or China-EU trades. China-US trades, for example, consist of a very high percentage of foreign owership, in the form of brand names, sales channels, IP, even export factory management. In this trade relationship, US gets the tuna steak while China gets the fish bones, so to speak.

In China-EM trades, on the other hand, much of Chinese owership is involved. From financing, infrastructure service to brands, to IP to factory, there are much less western involvement ('taxing' from Chinese standpoint). It may be lowly smelts, comparing to pricey tuna, but China gets much of the fish meat rather than just the bones.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173240-two-more-myths-about-business-in-china?source=feed#comment-759361 759361
Pragmatically, China's rurual poor is simply not on the radar screen of these foreign companies.

On Nov 13 10:51 AM huangthomas wrote:

> The author has a tendency to use anecdotal evidence to generalize
> to the entire society. It is not a scientific study of the society,
> it is simply a story telling of subjective opinions. The story of
> Anna, she used to live in Tokyo, now move to Shanghai, is an example.
> How representative is she for Chinese? There are 800mill rural resident
> in China. They are completely forgotten by the author]]> Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:59:15 -0500
Pragmatically, China's rurual poor is simply not on the radar screen of these foreign companies.

On Nov 13 10:51 AM huangthomas wrote:

> The author has a tendency to use anecdotal evidence to generalize
> to the entire society. It is not a scientific study of the society,
> it is simply a story telling of subjective opinions. The story of
> Anna, she used to live in Tokyo, now move to Shanghai, is an example.
> How representative is she for Chinese? There are 800mill rural resident
> in China. They are completely forgotten by the author]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/173240-two-more-myths-about-business-in-china?source=feed#comment-759353 759353
From the eyes of most Chinese who suffered through last century's desperate periods of imperial collapse, warlordism, Japanese invation, civil wars, 'great-leap forward' and cultural revolutions, you may sound like a cry baby.


On Nov 13 09:54 AM semuren wrote:

> "The desperation that marked the lives of many Chinese over the last
> century is gone. "
>
> Sorry, but that is BS. I have lived in China for about 10 years and
> there are still many people whose lives are filled with desperation.
> Sure, over all things are much better, economically, than they have
> been, but statements like that above betray a truly superficial knowledge
> of the country.
>
> I think I will never forget the man in line behind me Peking Union
> Medical Center in Beijing. My wife, father-in-law and I had all gone
> there at about 4AM to stand in line to get an appointment for my
> wife. Of the three of us one got an appointment. But the man in line
> behind me, like me did not get an appointment. I do not know his
> story. Maybe he came from somewhere far from Beijing or maybe not,
> but he simply lost it when he realized that he was not going to be
> able to see the doctor. In a way it was annoying. So many other were
> in his same shoes. But I can see why he started to scream and shout;
> why he simply could not accept that he, or whoever in his family
> was in need, was simply not going to have a chance to get medical
> care.
>
> That man felt desperation. No doubt about it. We got an appointment
> and my wife went on to get needed surgery. But if we had not I have
> the financial and citizenship status to take my wife to Bangkok or
> the US and get proper medical care. Most Chinese are not in that
> position.
>
> Sure things here are better than they have been in the past but it
> is not as rosy as analysts of the urban middle class consumer might
> have you believe.]]> Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:51:47 -0500
From the eyes of most Chinese who suffered through last century's desperate periods of imperial collapse, warlordism, Japanese invation, civil wars, 'great-leap forward' and cultural revolutions, you may sound like a cry baby.


On Nov 13 09:54 AM semuren wrote:

> "The desperation that marked the lives of many Chinese over the last
> century is gone. "
>
> Sorry, but that is BS. I have lived in China for about 10 years and
> there are still many people whose lives are filled with desperation.
> Sure, over all things are much better, economically, than they have
> been, but statements like that above betray a truly superficial knowledge
> of the country.
>
> I think I will never forget the man in line behind me Peking Union
> Medical Center in Beijing. My wife, father-in-law and I had all gone
> there at about 4AM to stand in line to get an appointment for my
> wife. Of the three of us one got an appointment. But the man in line
> behind me, like me did not get an appointment. I do not know his
> story. Maybe he came from somewhere far from Beijing or maybe not,
> but he simply lost it when he realized that he was not going to be
> able to see the doctor. In a way it was annoying. So many other were
> in his same shoes. But I can see why he started to scream and shout;
> why he simply could not accept that he, or whoever in his family
> was in need, was simply not going to have a chance to get medical
> care.
>
> That man felt desperation. No doubt about it. We got an appointment
> and my wife went on to get needed surgery. But if we had not I have
> the financial and citizenship status to take my wife to Bangkok or
> the US and get proper medical care. Most Chinese are not in that
> position.
>
> Sure things here are better than they have been in the past but it
> is not as rosy as analysts of the urban middle class consumer might
> have you believe.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172990-china-s-infrastructure-for-resources-policy?source=feed#comment-757504 757504
"Ironically this has a double benefit to China as it not only secures resources in the long run, but the infrastructure projects help employ a good number of people." .

Actually, both China and Africa derive MULTIPLE benefits from their relationship. Affordable Chinese infrastructures enhance productivity and bring prosperity, which create demand for affordable Chinese products. Chinese exports to Africa is zooming in unison with imports from Africa.

"China is conquering Africa as it becomes the preferred trading partner of the continent's dictators."

If you think only dictators and failed states are clinging to deal with China, you would be badly mistaken. China's combination of capital, capacity, low-cost, market demand and willingness to take risk and hardship is very hard to resist for any emerging economy.]]> Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:06:01 -0500
"Ironically this has a double benefit to China as it not only secures resources in the long run, but the infrastructure projects help employ a good number of people." .

Actually, both China and Africa derive MULTIPLE benefits from their relationship. Affordable Chinese infrastructures enhance productivity and bring prosperity, which create demand for affordable Chinese products. Chinese exports to Africa is zooming in unison with imports from Africa.

"China is conquering Africa as it becomes the preferred trading partner of the continent's dictators."

If you think only dictators and failed states are clinging to deal with China, you would be badly mistaken. China's combination of capital, capacity, low-cost, market demand and willingness to take risk and hardship is very hard to resist for any emerging economy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172737-did-china-buy-too-much-copper?source=feed#comment-755623 755623 Wed, 11 Nov 2009 13:22:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/172771-china-s-recovering-export-sector-less-than-meets-the-eye?source=feed#comment-755569 755569
From Bloomburg:
"Alibaba.com Ltd., China’s biggest online commerce site, expects the nation’s trade recovery to weaken in the first quarter of next year because of “flat” overseas demand", according to its CEO.

This is noteworthy because Alibaba.com is a dominant e-commerce platform used by Chinese small and medium exporters and enjoys a first-hand knowledge of export status months before any meaningful statistics become available.]]> Wed, 11 Nov 2009 12:42:38 -0500
From Bloomburg:
"Alibaba.com Ltd., China’s biggest online commerce site, expects the nation’s trade recovery to weaken in the first quarter of next year because of “flat” overseas demand", according to its CEO.

This is noteworthy because Alibaba.com is a dominant e-commerce platform used by Chinese small and medium exporters and enjoys a first-hand knowledge of export status months before any meaningful statistics become available.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172555-china-s-improbable-economic-growth-figures?source=feed#comment-754793 754793 Wed, 11 Nov 2009 00:07:46 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/166124-why-the-dollar-s-decline-is-good?source=feed#comment-714115 714115 Tue, 13 Oct 2009 13:58:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/166209-opportunity-in-the-brazilian-real-and-chinese-renminbi?source=feed#comment-714108 714108
What about the ETFs? There are CNY and CYB for the RMB and BZF for the Real. WisdomTree has been running ads for CYB on CNBC recently.]]> Tue, 13 Oct 2009 13:54:51 -0400
What about the ETFs? There are CNY and CYB for the RMB and BZF for the Real. WisdomTree has been running ads for CYB on CNBC recently.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166191-china-signs-5-5-billion-russian-trade-deals-including-energy-and-mineral-plans?source=feed#comment-714084 714084
The Russians had been playing the oil pipeline game between the Chinese and the Japanese for more than a decade. The Chinese had long given up on the Russians and pursued their energy needs all over the world from Central America to Africa to Latin America and Canada. It would be nice if they now get access to Russian oil and gas, but they know they can not count on the Russians to honour their 'plans' and 'aggreements'.

The global financial crisis proves that it is the Russians who made a big strategic error for more than then years in their economic development by treating the East Asian markets as only a fall-back market and negotiating lever, rather than seriously developing the Asian markets to complement their focus as energy supplier for Europe. With European energy demand tanking, the Russian GDP this year will shrink by 9%, and that is why the Russians now are scrambling for China deals. They will now need to redouble their efforts to repair their credibility problems with not only the Chinese but also the Japanese and Koreans, as the East Asians have developed alternative sources.]]> Tue, 13 Oct 2009 13:39:01 -0400
The Russians had been playing the oil pipeline game between the Chinese and the Japanese for more than a decade. The Chinese had long given up on the Russians and pursued their energy needs all over the world from Central America to Africa to Latin America and Canada. It would be nice if they now get access to Russian oil and gas, but they know they can not count on the Russians to honour their 'plans' and 'aggreements'.

The global financial crisis proves that it is the Russians who made a big strategic error for more than then years in their economic development by treating the East Asian markets as only a fall-back market and negotiating lever, rather than seriously developing the Asian markets to complement their focus as energy supplier for Europe. With European energy demand tanking, the Russian GDP this year will shrink by 9%, and that is why the Russians now are scrambling for China deals. They will now need to redouble their efforts to repair their credibility problems with not only the Chinese but also the Japanese and Koreans, as the East Asians have developed alternative sources.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162738-china-the-coming-clash-in-savings?source=feed#comment-686317 686317
In particular, the impacts of new policies of the new Japanese goverment is worth watching. As a savings economy, they are still a close second to China. More importantly, as a much richer nation than China, the discretionery portion of the Japanese's savings pile is still a lot bigger than China's, in my opinion.


On Sep 22 10:38 AM djackson wrote:

> I'm not sure an increase in US savings necessitates a decrease in
> Chinese savings. If you think globally, the US increase could be
> offset elsewhere. In point of fact, we are rapidly approaching the
> point at which various developed economies will have significant
> tendancies toward dis-savings due to retirements of the large population
> cohort born shortly after WWII. I believe how to fund that is an
> even bigger issue in Europe and potentially Japan than it is for
> the US.]]> Tue, 22 Sep 2009 12:15:08 -0400
In particular, the impacts of new policies of the new Japanese goverment is worth watching. As a savings economy, they are still a close second to China. More importantly, as a much richer nation than China, the discretionery portion of the Japanese's savings pile is still a lot bigger than China's, in my opinion.


On Sep 22 10:38 AM djackson wrote:

> I'm not sure an increase in US savings necessitates a decrease in
> Chinese savings. If you think globally, the US increase could be
> offset elsewhere. In point of fact, we are rapidly approaching the
> point at which various developed economies will have significant
> tendancies toward dis-savings due to retirements of the large population
> cohort born shortly after WWII. I believe how to fund that is an
> even bigger issue in Europe and potentially Japan than it is for
> the US.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161720-china-commandeers-australian-commodity-players-starts-to-nibble-in-africa?source=feed#comment-679113 679113
All the small acquisitions add up to only a small fraction comparing to BHP + Rio Tinto.

The two giants joining hands in iron ore are just too fishy and dangerous for the Chinese steel mills. They are on the defensive.]]> Wed, 16 Sep 2009 11:36:49 -0400
All the small acquisitions add up to only a small fraction comparing to BHP + Rio Tinto.

The two giants joining hands in iron ore are just too fishy and dangerous for the Chinese steel mills. They are on the defensive.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/37952-shaun-rein/26889-death-comes-to-wal-mart?source=feed#comment-669779 669779 Thu, 10 Sep 2009 00:06:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160477-china-and-renminbi-bonds-this-looks-like-the-ending-of-a-beautiful-friendship?source=feed#comment-669714 669714
As China's domestic consumption grows, the inland cities, perhaps even rural areas will become more viable for factories serving domestic markets.

Some African countries will not have to wait for 50 years. China already finds excellent matches in many African countries. China can offer what Africa desperately needs at prices African countries can afford: low cost infrastructure, financing, and low cost basic goods. And some African countries have what China desperately needs: natural resources, market for basic goods, and even farmable land.


On Sep 09 01:03 PM John Galt wrote:

> Fascinating.
>
> I posted (even on SA I believe) thoughts along these lines. How the
> standard of living is different for the urban Chinese vs the hundreds
> of millions of rural Chinese ( I saw 750 million but your 800 million
> could be correct).
>
> Think about it, our country has a population of 300 million, but
> they have over 2 USs worth of people living in extreme poverty in
> rural areas. That's a huge potential manufacturing base there right
> now.
>
> As the evolution of capitalism would go, once their standard of living
> rises, then the low skilled jobs move to Vietnam, Burma, and other
> poorer South east Asian countries.
>
> I also noted that in the more distant future, maybe 50 years, maybe
> less, maybe more I do believe those manufacturing jobs will eventually
> be outsourced to Africa ( at some point).
>
> So Mark, do you feel the Chinese not floating their currency ( and
> keeping it undervalued) is a grand form of "dumping", where they
> are letting the world skim some off the top in Forex, in exchange
> for (higher employment) and a manufacturing base to be put work (
> and eventually more)?]]> Wed, 09 Sep 2009 21:00:41 -0400
As China's domestic consumption grows, the inland cities, perhaps even rural areas will become more viable for factories serving domestic markets.

Some African countries will not have to wait for 50 years. China already finds excellent matches in many African countries. China can offer what Africa desperately needs at prices African countries can afford: low cost infrastructure, financing, and low cost basic goods. And some African countries have what China desperately needs: natural resources, market for basic goods, and even farmable land.


On Sep 09 01:03 PM John Galt wrote:

> Fascinating.
>
> I posted (even on SA I believe) thoughts along these lines. How the
> standard of living is different for the urban Chinese vs the hundreds
> of millions of rural Chinese ( I saw 750 million but your 800 million
> could be correct).
>
> Think about it, our country has a population of 300 million, but
> they have over 2 USs worth of people living in extreme poverty in
> rural areas. That's a huge potential manufacturing base there right
> now.
>
> As the evolution of capitalism would go, once their standard of living
> rises, then the low skilled jobs move to Vietnam, Burma, and other
> poorer South east Asian countries.
>
> I also noted that in the more distant future, maybe 50 years, maybe
> less, maybe more I do believe those manufacturing jobs will eventually
> be outsourced to Africa ( at some point).
>
> So Mark, do you feel the Chinese not floating their currency ( and
> keeping it undervalued) is a grand form of "dumping", where they
> are letting the world skim some off the top in Forex, in exchange
> for (higher employment) and a manufacturing base to be put work (
> and eventually more)?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160509-china-becoming-a-middle-class-nation?source=feed#comment-669518 669518
Continuing moving up from a low base toward middle-income will take another 15-30 years. Meanwhile, since China is a huge economy that covers some extremely difficult terrains, the leading edge of it will be quite advanced while the trailing edge will remain very 'challenging' for a long time.


On Sep 09 03:44 PM dshark wrote:

> 90% of it has been in the last 30 yeas, Nil before that. Also when
>
> your starting from a 1$ is it easy to jump to $2, it's gets exponentially
> harder as you catch up to the rest of the world and try to manage
> growth and people.
>
> SHARK]]> Wed, 09 Sep 2009 18:11:11 -0400
Continuing moving up from a low base toward middle-income will take another 15-30 years. Meanwhile, since China is a huge economy that covers some extremely difficult terrains, the leading edge of it will be quite advanced while the trailing edge will remain very 'challenging' for a long time.


On Sep 09 03:44 PM dshark wrote:

> 90% of it has been in the last 30 yeas, Nil before that. Also when
>
> your starting from a 1$ is it easy to jump to $2, it's gets exponentially
> harder as you catch up to the rest of the world and try to manage
> growth and people.
>
> SHARK]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160509-china-becoming-a-middle-class-nation?source=feed#comment-669164 669164
I wonder if it is appropriate to post entire articles from another publisher?

No one is arguing that China's statistics are up to western standards. Still there are plenty varifiable information to confirm China's tremendous growth over years.

Can China fake the $2T forex reserve and the $1T+ US goverment debt they hold? Can China fake the endless new infrastructures the build? Can China pay for all those foreign resource acquisitions with worthless RMB? Will the consumers respond to goverment's car buying insentives with such gusto if there are no hidden wealth in China? Can there be a #1 car market if only the corrupt officials get rich, as many China-bashers are insisting?]]> Wed, 09 Sep 2009 14:28:29 -0400
I wonder if it is appropriate to post entire articles from another publisher?

No one is arguing that China's statistics are up to western standards. Still there are plenty varifiable information to confirm China's tremendous growth over years.

Can China fake the $2T forex reserve and the $1T+ US goverment debt they hold? Can China fake the endless new infrastructures the build? Can China pay for all those foreign resource acquisitions with worthless RMB? Will the consumers respond to goverment's car buying insentives with such gusto if there are no hidden wealth in China? Can there be a #1 car market if only the corrupt officials get rich, as many China-bashers are insisting?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160577-first-solar-set-to-conquer-china-s-growing-market?source=feed#comment-668869 668869
Be realistic. That will NOT happen.]]> Wed, 09 Sep 2009 12:39:32 -0400
Be realistic. That will NOT happen.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160509-china-becoming-a-middle-class-nation?source=feed#comment-668557 668557
China-doubters will point to the Chinese source (China Daily) as 'questionable', but any objective observers who looks at big pictures can neglect all Chinses official statistics and still come to the same conclusions.

It is not important to argue wether China is now 'lower middle-income' or still working their way toward that goal. It is clear that China has been consistently moving UP toward that direction at a very decent pace, and that direction and pace will continue despite the burst of global financial bubble. There is no doubt that the middle class continues to grow quickly.

In addition to the accumulation of financial reserves, few people pay much attention to the significance that China now has accumulated a surplus of 'college grad' reserves. This is much more meaningful that most people realize.

30 years ago, at the end of the Cultural Revolution and the beggining of the current modernization drive, China faced an extreme shortage of educated elite, a whole generation of young elites wasted a decade away from universities, which were all closed. This situation led to the fundamental limitations faced by China's reformist leaders in the past 30 years which resulted to the TWO glaring deficiencies within the impressive success of China's development.

1. With a extreme shortage of educated capable officials, China must allocated the small pool of them to big cities in coastal regions. Goverments in vast rural and inland areas had to put up with unqualified officials who has absolutely no need skills to handle moderrnization programs.

2. A advanced service industry, which requires a large pool of educated employees, could not be developed.

To address these problems, China has been expanding university enrollments at a much faster pace that GDP growth rate in the past 10-15 years. (Quality is going to suffer for sure) And now faces a different problem, finding jobs for a surplus of millions of college grads.

This virtually garantees that new Chinese goverment policies will focus on modernizing rural and inland goverment administrations with new college grads and the development of the serivce sector to assorb large numbers of these educated youths. The much expanded pool of educated youths will now support three main DOMESTIC drivers of future economic growth, continued vast urbanization, rural and inland development, and service sector development. And as a result, China will develop into a much more balanced economy in the next 30 years.]]> Wed, 09 Sep 2009 10:52:09 -0400
China-doubters will point to the Chinese source (China Daily) as 'questionable', but any objective observers who looks at big pictures can neglect all Chinses official statistics and still come to the same conclusions.

It is not important to argue wether China is now 'lower middle-income' or still working their way toward that goal. It is clear that China has been consistently moving UP toward that direction at a very decent pace, and that direction and pace will continue despite the burst of global financial bubble. There is no doubt that the middle class continues to grow quickly.

In addition to the accumulation of financial reserves, few people pay much attention to the significance that China now has accumulated a surplus of 'college grad' reserves. This is much more meaningful that most people realize.

30 years ago, at the end of the Cultural Revolution and the beggining of the current modernization drive, China faced an extreme shortage of educated elite, a whole generation of young elites wasted a decade away from universities, which were all closed. This situation led to the fundamental limitations faced by China's reformist leaders in the past 30 years which resulted to the TWO glaring deficiencies within the impressive success of China's development.

1. With a extreme shortage of educated capable officials, China must allocated the small pool of them to big cities in coastal regions. Goverments in vast rural and inland areas had to put up with unqualified officials who has absolutely no need skills to handle moderrnization programs.

2. A advanced service industry, which requires a large pool of educated employees, could not be developed.

To address these problems, China has been expanding university enrollments at a much faster pace that GDP growth rate in the past 10-15 years. (Quality is going to suffer for sure) And now faces a different problem, finding jobs for a surplus of millions of college grads.

This virtually garantees that new Chinese goverment policies will focus on modernizing rural and inland goverment administrations with new college grads and the development of the serivce sector to assorb large numbers of these educated youths. The much expanded pool of educated youths will now support three main DOMESTIC drivers of future economic growth, continued vast urbanization, rural and inland development, and service sector development. And as a result, China will develop into a much more balanced economy in the next 30 years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160397-etfs-for-china-s-internet-boom?source=feed#comment-667512 667512
All three ETFs are good bets. I favor EWT most, as Taiwan is now very well position to help China move up the value chain, and benefit its own economy in the process. It is also more reasonably valued.]]> Tue, 08 Sep 2009 22:00:11 -0400
All three ETFs are good bets. I favor EWT most, as Taiwan is now very well position to help China move up the value chain, and benefit its own economy in the process. It is also more reasonably valued.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160454-china-gold-and-the-non-open-door?source=feed#comment-667292 667292 Tue, 08 Sep 2009 17:51:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160450-there-s-no-shortage-of-those-who-want-to-see-the-dollar-go-lower?source=feed#comment-667231 667231
It is the U.S. that benefits most from the lowered Dollar. The huge debts we owed to foreign goverments will be de-valued, plus exports will be more competitive against Japan and EU, hopefully creating more factory jobs.

On Sep 08 04:32 PM tripleblack wrote:

> A case could be made for many of the interested parties in a stronge
> dollar:
>
> 1. OPEC still executes virtually all oil trades in dollars. If they
> wanted the dollar damaged, all they need do is switch to an alternate
> currency, say, Euros. Many wealthy OPEC members hold huge investments
> in dollar instruments, or direct investments in American companies.
> When the dollar goes down, their investments are worth less.
>
> 2. China has huge dollar investments, and holds hundreds of billions
> in bonds. AND though it is true that a drop in dollar value makes
> their goods EASIER to sell because of the yuan/dollar peg, it also
> means that imports cost them more. Having a devaluing currency where
> YOU do not control the devaluing is a dangerous game.
>
> 3. Commodity producers (Australia, S. America) also trade their goods
> in dollars, and end up with considerable supplies of dollars as a
> result. They are also countries that import many things and pay for
> THEM with dollars. A strong dollar in the hand is worth two in the
> ground.
>
> 4. Russia....
>
> Wants the Ruble (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) to become
> the world's reserve currency.]]> Tue, 08 Sep 2009 17:14:55 -0400
It is the U.S. that benefits most from the lowered Dollar. The huge debts we owed to foreign goverments will be de-valued, plus exports will be more competitive against Japan and EU, hopefully creating more factory jobs.

On Sep 08 04:32 PM tripleblack wrote:

> A case could be made for many of the interested parties in a stronge
> dollar:
>
> 1. OPEC still executes virtually all oil trades in dollars. If they
> wanted the dollar damaged, all they need do is switch to an alternate
> currency, say, Euros. Many wealthy OPEC members hold huge investments
> in dollar instruments, or direct investments in American companies.
> When the dollar goes down, their investments are worth less.
>
> 2. China has huge dollar investments, and holds hundreds of billions
> in bonds. AND though it is true that a drop in dollar value makes
> their goods EASIER to sell because of the yuan/dollar peg, it also
> means that imports cost them more. Having a devaluing currency where
> YOU do not control the devaluing is a dangerous game.
>
> 3. Commodity producers (Australia, S. America) also trade their goods
> in dollars, and end up with considerable supplies of dollars as a
> result. They are also countries that import many things and pay for
> THEM with dollars. A strong dollar in the hand is worth two in the
> ground.
>
> 4. Russia....
>
> Wants the Ruble (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) to become
> the world's reserve currency.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160477-china-and-renminbi-bonds-this-looks-like-the-ending-of-a-beautiful-friendship?source=feed#comment-667209 667209 Tue, 08 Sep 2009 17:02:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160295-amidst-growing-solar-trade-war-first-solar-and-china-try-to-play-nice?source=feed#comment-667199 667199
"US energy giant First Solar on Tuesday won a deal to build the world's largest solar power plant in China, aimed at helping mitigate climate change concerns.

First Solar will construct the two-gigawatt plant in Ordos City, Inner Mongolia, under a memorandum of understanding (MOU) inked Tuesday with Chinese officials at the company's headquarters in Tempe, Arizona.

The solar facility is to be built in four phases over a decade and supply power to three million Chinese homes, the company said in a statement."

There is a reason why First Solar is "hosting a delegation of senior Chinese government leaders from the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress of China" after all.]]> Tue, 08 Sep 2009 16:56:50 -0400
"US energy giant First Solar on Tuesday won a deal to build the world's largest solar power plant in China, aimed at helping mitigate climate change concerns.

First Solar will construct the two-gigawatt plant in Ordos City, Inner Mongolia, under a memorandum of understanding (MOU) inked Tuesday with Chinese officials at the company's headquarters in Tempe, Arizona.

The solar facility is to be built in four phases over a decade and supply power to three million Chinese homes, the company said in a statement."

There is a reason why First Solar is "hosting a delegation of senior Chinese government leaders from the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress of China" after all.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160326-why-all-eyes-must-stay-on-china?source=feed#comment-667186 667186 Tue, 08 Sep 2009 16:48:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160146-china-export-ban-could-sting-certain-etfs?source=feed#comment-664702 664702 Sun, 06 Sep 2009 22:04:51 -0400