HaavBline

Emerging Markets: Betting Against Conventional Wisdom

What nonsense!

"How many investors shorted technology stocks in the late 1990s ahead of the bust in March 2000?
Alternatively, how many speculators bet against bank stocks in 2007 ahead of the historical crash in financial services companies? And how many investors wagered residential real estate prices would collapse ahead of the peak in the summer of 2006?"

I thought the author was going to claim he did. Scary.

"As we shortly conclude the halfway mark in 2009 I’m asking myself “where can an investor make money betting against conventional wisdom?” …In other words, which sectors are seemingly in a speculative “bubble” and absolutely accepted by the masses?"

How convenient! He feel like it is time to burst a bubble and there it is, a bubble a waiting there to burst by simply for him to go 'contrarian'. Is he talking about a bubble of the century, a bubble of the decade, or just a bubble of mothly variety?

Emerging market debt swooned 40% last fall as the financial crisis spread, while US treasuries rally. The EM debt only recover in sync with the rally from October bottem and has yet to recover to year ago levels.

Is the author calling for a 50% drop from current levels? or just a 10% correction?

Resurgent Russia Discharging Dollars

If you read through to the last paragraph, you realize you have been had. The only purpose is to justify buying gold.

If Russia is just the opposite of everything described in the article, the conclusion would be exactly the same. Buy gold.

China and Emerging Market Investing: Real Basis

To RiskReturnOptimizer: I have a significant holding on EWT, I can appreciate your strong efforts. But frankly your statement "Having being governed by Spain, Dutch, Portugal, and Japan, Taiwan has taken the "best practices" from all over the world." was way too much hype.

The 'best practise' from the Portugese consist of this: "In 1582 the survivors of a Portuguese shipwreck spent ten weeks battling malaria and Aborigines before returning to Macau on a raft" and that was it.

The Spaniards spent a few more years, estabhed a few small settlements by the sea, but were driven out by the Dutch in 1642 after a mere 2 decades of presence. Neither the Portugese nor the Spaniards left any trace of 'best pratices".

The Dutch East India Company managed to hang around longer in more parts of the island, set up churches, schools and collected taxes, until they were driven out by ramnents of the falling Ming Dynasty forces in 1661.

The Dutch can claim they left some 'best practise' to Taiwan though. One particular aboriginal tribe are said to have significant Dutch DNA among them. And some of their woman does show the hints of Caucasian style beauty unusual in Taiwan. Needless to say, that brings that popularity in entertainment circles.