HaavBline

Knowledge Is Power: Jittery Bulls in the China Shop

Some people has been worrying that US might become trapped in a Japan (post-bubble) scenario. But I think Germany is a much more likely candidate than US to follow Japan into a long term decline.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

"Okay, sometimes it’s good to miss a couple of days. Everything and nothing has happened."

No secret randevu in Argentina? How disappointing.

Seriously, great works as always.

Commodities' China Syndrome

Excellent report. Thanks for the graphs, which confirmed my suspicions.

Stockpiling now could mean more price stability in the future as China may not need to buy at spot price as much as before.

Decline of the U.S. Dollar: Asian Initiative to Create Commodity Based Currency?

Excellent article and comment from 353732.

But, Mr.. Goldman seem to read a litttle too much out of this Chiang Mai Initiative. It was a long way coming, but it is not as far along as David thinks. It is at least not yet positioned as some basis for some future challenge to the USD.

As of now, CMI is still just a response from the '97 Asian Financial Crisis, when East Asia was hit very hard, and many felt they were exploited by western powers behind the IMF when they were down. The CMI is still defensive in nature, a pooling of reserves so that East Asian countries don't have to go begging for IMF money on unreasonably harshed terms when hard time strikes.

Also ASEAN+3 does not include India, as David imply. The '3' are China, Japan, South Korea. As of now, the Chiang Mai Initiative does not cover 3.5 Billion Asian people, just 2.4 Billion EAST Asians. India still have a lot of problem with its immediate South Asian neighbors, and is not yet as well integrated to East Asian economies as it can be in the future.

Whether USD will lost its world reserve currency status quickly or slowly depends mostly on the US economy itself. Americans seems to regard USD's Reserve Currency status as a priviledge, a birth right. The reality is that Reserve Currency has its responsibilities. Countries expect the Reserve Currency to be rock solid, stable, and always strong. It requires big shoulders and big stomach to support such a Reserve Currency by one country. With shaky finance and deep levels of debts, American may soon find that the burden has become too much to shoulder by ourselves.

Geithner to Get a Spanking in China

Why limit your totalitarian idea at banning Chinese restrurants? There are so much policy flexibility if US turn totalitarian.


On Jun 01 11:40 AM carey_jim wrote:

> I propose a ban on Chinese restaurants until this currency mess gets
> under control.

Commodities: A Wise Long Term Investment

Very logical analysis. So logical that most readers, including myself, agree. This near concensus concensus kind of worries me.

Still, I agree with long term positives of commodities in general. I also agree with Oz Investor, who point out that China has been stockpilling commodities of all sorts, and no one know how much it has help propped up recent firmness of prices and when this massive stockpiling will stop.

The Indian election results should be a long term plus for commidities and emerging markets too.