toobad41

Why a Market Crash Doesn’t Matter

Well I am not going to bad mouth Mr. Carnevale because I have come to the same conclusion as he has in this article. The market as a whole is just an "average" and who in their right mind wants to be just average. The reason we put money in various investments is to do better than the "average". I know that a lot of you people have kicked themselves for not taking action on purchasing stocks that could have made you a fortune with just $10,000. I have a few in mind...i.e. Dell, Nike or Microsoft. But now they are just average and have run their course. Birth, youth, maturity then death. So if you look at the "market" you are looking at mature, average, stocks...what is next?

The Oil Casino: SEC Heading for Monte Carlo, Part III

I thank you Mr. von Altendorf for this excellent presentation. I wished you had brought in to the discussion some of the American companies or minnows that use Monte Carlo simulations in their assessments of reserves. Conflict of interest probably won't allow you to do that. In my experience most companies or minnows use various kinds of modeling scenarios to boost their reserves so they can sell their company or production based what "might" be in the ground. Devon comes to mind. With that said most of us that are or were in the petroleum industry won't live long enough to see the results of our prediction of reserves real or imagined. And in a few years many Reservoir Engineers and Geologists will no longer be in the business or with the company that signed off on their estimates. New people will come on board and do their own estimates. Thus the story repeats itself over and over again.

Ethanol vs. Natural Gas or Coal: Comparison Not Even Close

Kudos, Mr. Shaefer...You are right on with this one. Ethanol is a political as well as bureaucratic look through rose colored glasses at how to solve our energy crises. Even our farmers look at this as a means to get more bucks for their corn crop. Can you blame them? But at what cost to the people (you and me) who pay for this "change" at the edict of our wise democrats. Do the politicians really care if the "change" works or not? I don't think so. Like you mentioned "they take money even though they don't make it". That is the way it works. I also agree that fossil fuels rule the world. Nothing on the horizon that will "change" that regardless how hard we try. I have worked in the oil industry for over 40+ years and I don't see anything yet that rivals this business. When this industry ends so will civilization as we know it. Hopefully, not in my lifetime...But I am not so sure. The world is about to become a whole lot smaller.

Barron's on ExxonMobil: 'What a Gusher'

I fully agree that these integrated oil companies such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, or BP are solid bets for the long haul but these are so huge that it takes a lot of effort to move them. If you are just interested in parking your money this would be a good bet.

The Global Oil Scam: 50 Times Bigger than Madoff

Gosh! I can't believe that speculators are manipulating the commodity futures market in oil and trying to make money! Changing the subject...what about oranges...if we have a bad freeze in Florida this year do you think speculators won't jump on that wagon and drive up the price of orange juice? What about a hurricane taking dead aim on Houston, TX? Do you think the price of crude or gasoline for that matter will drop? I don't think so. To change the subject again...who drives the high priced BMW's?...the speculator or the broker. I would place my bet on the broker. True, it appears that GS is trying to manipulate the market to their advantage. It takes big money to make big money in their environment. If they are under the radar, legally, then they will do it. I found this article very interesting and I had no idea this was going on.

The Global Oil Scam: 50 Times Bigger than Madoff

Gosh! I can't believe that speculators are manipulating the commodity futures market in oil and trying to make money! Changing the subject...what about oranges...if we have a bad freeze in Florida this year do you think speculators won't jump on that wagon and drive up the price of orange juice? What about a hurricane taking dead aim on Houston, TX? Do you think the price of crude or gasoline for that matter will drop? I don't think so. To change the subject again...who drives the high priced BMW's?...the speculator or the broker. I would place my bet on the broker. True, it appears that GS is trying to manipulate the market to their advantage. It takes big money to make big money in their environment. If they are under the radar, legally, then they will do it. I found this article very interesting and I had no idea this was going on.

Peak Oil: Still Headed for a Train Wreck

We should not be too surprised at the what comes out of any agency such as the IEA. It has always been known in the petroleum industry that estimated ultimate recovery oil reserves are just pie-in-sky estimates and they change almost on a daily basis. The same can be said about the IEA. The numbers they have in their data base are based largely on what industry or countries provide. At stake here is a much larger issue. Western civilization is totally dependent on petroleum and nothing else is on the horizon even remotely approaches this resource. Many people, myself included, say that we will eventually revert back to simpler life in a society that existed 100 years ago. And perhaps that is a good thing, not a bad thing.

Is Berkshire’s Burlington Move All About Coal?

I agree with most of the comments above. Transportation in the future will rely heavily on the rail system. Not just for coal but for all of industry and commodities in general. I have indicated in other blogs that the sun is setting on the trucking industry and the railroad will be up the slack. In fact, I have seen it in my own community where rail transportation has increased tremendously and the trains move at speeds of 60 mph through town. All of the cars are stacked two high with shipping containers.

Riding the Rails: Why BNI Was Berkshire's Best Bet - And Vintage Buffett

Rising fuel prices will dictate which mode of transportation for goods and services will survive. Mr. Buffett sees this clearly and has made his move now. It won't be long when we will see fewer 18 wheelers on the highways because higher fuel pricing will not support there use. Sure trucks will still be used but only locally from the rail depot to the business. The sun is setting on the trucking industry. Mr. Buffett sees this.

Equities Update: Averages Tumble as Traders Fret over Economy

What lies ahead?
Here are some things to think about...People will move back into cities, the abandonment of the suburbs, higher and higher transportation costs will dictate that, cities with mass transportation will thrive, electrical grid melt down and increasing brown-outs, third world countries will utterly collapse because of a paucity of food, communities that are far from population centers and rail service will fail, parts of the country that cannot grow produce efficiently will fail, water will dictate where people live...These are a few things to look forward to...It may not be that bad but when you think that 80% of the worlds population are in desparate straits even today IMHO it does not look very good.

Equities Update: Averages Tumble as Traders Fret over Economy

Whether you believe it or not we are leaving the "fat cat affluent society" and entering "the end of consumerism". And when will "consumerism" end? Around 2022, if not sooner. This date coincides with the end of oil and the end of the industrial revolution. The oil business drives society and civilization as we know it. The petroleum industry is a sunset industry and the sun is low in the sky. All of this will profoundly affect the markets from this day forward and we will see a greater influence next year and years to come. The world as we have known it is gone and won't return. Ahmed Zaki Yamani, former oil minister of Saudi Arabia, once said "Just as the stone age didn't end for the lack of stone, the oil age will end long before the world runs out of oil". Go ahead and fret about the day-to-day market gyrations but there is a much larger and more devastating influence lurking. It is happening now and will gather steam going forward. No amount of money will prepare you for what lies ahead. You heard it here first.

3 Stocks that Will Ride the Wind Energy Boom

FPL last year had positive effects from the American Recovery & Reinvestment Act, which allowed the company to take value of Federal wind-power production tax credits in the form of cash. However the company is down 31% from last year and will be down this year and next. Florida has also been one of the hardest hit states in this recession.

Stock Price Strength Notwithstanding, Economy and the Dollar Are Still on the Skids

Thanks Dr. Leeb for your insights. I might add that I've read and heard recently that oil will be in the triple digits (i.e. $100) by the end of the year. Those investors who don't invest in petroleum either in stocks or in the commodity will suffer. Those who do will do really, really good.

A Crude 10 Year Perspective: The DJIA, Oil and Gold

Very interesting article. Your views parallel mine. Having been in the oil business for over 40 years I have witnessed a lot but nothing like what is happening today. I am curious about what you might think about the next ten years in terms of oil pricing. Based on your prior 10 year increases we should expect oil to be at the very least $400 a barrel in the next 10 years and gold over $5000.

Still Concerned About Tone of Market's Advance

Perhaps there is a serious gap between Wall Street and Main Street. The Wall Streeter does what he always does and is still actively trading. The Main Streeters have no choice but to sit on the sidelines. The recession has really hurt the Main Streeters. They have no extra cash to put into the market. Thus the trading volume is low because 80% of the people can't afford to risk their remaining cash reserve