toobad41

Is Berkshire’s Burlington Move All About Coal?

I agree with most of the comments above. Transportation in the future will rely heavily on the rail system. Not just for coal but for all of industry and commodities in general. I have indicated in other blogs that the sun is setting on the trucking industry and the railroad will be up the slack. In fact, I have seen it in my own community where rail transportation has increased tremendously and the trains move at speeds of 60 mph through town. All of the cars are stacked two high with shipping containers.

Riding the Rails: Why BNI Was Berkshire's Best Bet - And Vintage Buffett

Rising fuel prices will dictate which mode of transportation for goods and services will survive. Mr. Buffett sees this clearly and has made his move now. It won't be long when we will see fewer 18 wheelers on the highways because higher fuel pricing will not support there use. Sure trucks will still be used but only locally from the rail depot to the business. The sun is setting on the trucking industry. Mr. Buffett sees this.

Equities Update: Averages Tumble as Traders Fret over Economy

What lies ahead?
Here are some things to think about...People will move back into cities, the abandonment of the suburbs, higher and higher transportation costs will dictate that, cities with mass transportation will thrive, electrical grid melt down and increasing brown-outs, third world countries will utterly collapse because of a paucity of food, communities that are far from population centers and rail service will fail, parts of the country that cannot grow produce efficiently will fail, water will dictate where people live...These are a few things to look forward to...It may not be that bad but when you think that 80% of the worlds population are in desparate straits even today IMHO it does not look very good.

Equities Update: Averages Tumble as Traders Fret over Economy

Whether you believe it or not we are leaving the "fat cat affluent society" and entering "the end of consumerism". And when will "consumerism" end? Around 2022, if not sooner. This date coincides with the end of oil and the end of the industrial revolution. The oil business drives society and civilization as we know it. The petroleum industry is a sunset industry and the sun is low in the sky. All of this will profoundly affect the markets from this day forward and we will see a greater influence next year and years to come. The world as we have known it is gone and won't return. Ahmed Zaki Yamani, former oil minister of Saudi Arabia, once said "Just as the stone age didn't end for the lack of stone, the oil age will end long before the world runs out of oil". Go ahead and fret about the day-to-day market gyrations but there is a much larger and more devastating influence lurking. It is happening now and will gather steam going forward. No amount of money will prepare you for what lies ahead. You heard it here first.

3 Stocks that Will Ride the Wind Energy Boom

FPL last year had positive effects from the American Recovery & Reinvestment Act, which allowed the company to take value of Federal wind-power production tax credits in the form of cash. However the company is down 31% from last year and will be down this year and next. Florida has also been one of the hardest hit states in this recession.

Stock Price Strength Notwithstanding, Economy and the Dollar Are Still on the Skids

Thanks Dr. Leeb for your insights. I might add that I've read and heard recently that oil will be in the triple digits (i.e. $100) by the end of the year. Those investors who don't invest in petroleum either in stocks or in the commodity will suffer. Those who do will do really, really good.

A Crude 10 Year Perspective: The DJIA, Oil and Gold

Very interesting article. Your views parallel mine. Having been in the oil business for over 40 years I have witnessed a lot but nothing like what is happening today. I am curious about what you might think about the next ten years in terms of oil pricing. Based on your prior 10 year increases we should expect oil to be at the very least $400 a barrel in the next 10 years and gold over $5000.

Still Concerned About Tone of Market's Advance

Perhaps there is a serious gap between Wall Street and Main Street. The Wall Streeter does what he always does and is still actively trading. The Main Streeters have no choice but to sit on the sidelines. The recession has really hurt the Main Streeters. They have no extra cash to put into the market. Thus the trading volume is low because 80% of the people can't afford to risk their remaining cash reserve

Is Exxon Betting on $100 Oil?

Exactly...you are absolutely correct in your assessment. Mergers and acquisitions by very large corporations in the petroleum business is their salvation. Without this they cannot find enough reserves to continue as large multi-national corporations. The cost for this kind of activity will pale in comparison to what is coming down the road.

How Much Natural Gas Remains in the USA?

Does it really matter how much NG is in the US? When the time comes most of what we will need will be imported in the form of LNG. The problem with reserves of NG in the US is that a great deal of the stuff is found in areas that don't have a market and is flared or vented to the atmosphere. LNG makes more sense. You can connect to already available pipelines. By-the-way, probably 80% of the natural gas ever found in the US is already gone. If we ramp up production to supply planes, trains and automobiles then your 100 year supply won't last very long indeed.

Out of (Natural) Gas

Today's natural gas glut is more related to what happened a couple of years ago...operators began drilling and producing gas as fast as they could because the NG pricing was very, very good. Then all of a sudden the economy collapsed and demand went with it. Because there are very few places where you can store any significant amount of gas most wells are shut-in (for a better market), production is often constrained by pipeline pressure or capacity, etc. So those companies will not be inclined to spend money in the coming year until demand picks up, prices for natural gas goes back up or inventory is used up. So my take on this is that the cycle will bottom by the second quarter next year (2010) and the cycle will begin its upward journey in the third quarter next year. Drilling budgets are usually determined in the fall (2010) and drilling expenditures begin in January of the following year (2011).

Climate Change: How to Invest for the Possibility

Like oil, natural gas is not found everywhere. And as Ferdinand E mentions it is not as abundant as people think. Most of the natural gas that has every been found is gone. It was vented or burned as a by-product. Even today it is burned or vented to the atmospher because there is no market or pipeline needed for transporting. Even exploration today is aimed at non-conventional resources because conventional sources are depleted. With that said, you can bet your bottom dollar that gas will also become a rare commondity and sooner than you think.

Plenty of Natural Gas: Exploration and Production Companies Keep Increasing Oversupply

Your sentence "The action by E&P Companies as a whole could be short sighted" is a flat out stupid sentence. E&P Companies are independent of each other and seldom (if ever) act as a whole.

Golden Rule: Easy Oil Production Means Cheap Oil, Difficult Production Means Expensive Oil

Well thought out article. People don't realize the cost of finding new oil (or natural for that matter) will be more and more expensive going forward. Like you mentioned, the depth to drill and find oil offshore is another indication of that expense. I would like to mention that the 35,000 foot depth is mostly horizontal drilling. Oil rarely exists below a vertical depth of 10,000 feet and above a bottom hole temperature of 150 degrees F. Below 10,000 feet the rock pressures and temperatures are higher, the oil undergoes a cracking process whereby hydrocarbons convert to natural gas.

Natural Gas Stocks: The Ultimate Form of Stored Solar Energy

On the contrary, Mr. Shaefer, we do have a pretty good idea as to how much oil and natural gas is left to be found. As far as the bell shaped curve is concerned Mr. Hubbard did not take into consideration Prudeau Bay or offshore which at the time of his prediction was not even a dream. With that said the curve is not bell shaped. Also he did not consider the impact of a population of 3 billion people growing to 6 billion today nor did he incorporate growing demand. What is disturbing to me is that most of the natural gas found to date has been vented or burned off at the wellhead because of a lack of a market or facilities to gather the gas. I believe I read that North Dakota produces about 85 million cubic gas per day with no market, no gathering system. Is it a coincidence that the drilling for natural gas today is in areas of existing pipelines, population centers and facilities?