toobad41

Ethanol vs. Natural Gas or Coal: Comparison Not Even Close

Kudos, Mr. Shaefer...You are right on with this one. Ethanol is a political as well as bureaucratic look through rose colored glasses at how to solve our energy crises. Even our farmers look at this as a means to get more bucks for their corn crop. Can you blame them? But at what cost to the people (you and me) who pay for this "change" at the edict of our wise democrats. Do the politicians really care if the "change" works or not? I don't think so. Like you mentioned "they take money even though they don't make it". That is the way it works. I also agree that fossil fuels rule the world. Nothing on the horizon that will "change" that regardless how hard we try. I have worked in the oil industry for over 40+ years and I don't see anything yet that rivals this business. When this industry ends so will civilization as we know it. Hopefully, not in my lifetime...But I am not so sure. The world is about to become a whole lot smaller.

A Crude 10 Year Perspective: The DJIA, Oil and Gold

Very interesting article. Your views parallel mine. Having been in the oil business for over 40 years I have witnessed a lot but nothing like what is happening today. I am curious about what you might think about the next ten years in terms of oil pricing. Based on your prior 10 year increases we should expect oil to be at the very least $400 a barrel in the next 10 years and gold over $5000.

Climate Change: How to Invest for the Possibility

Like oil, natural gas is not found everywhere. And as Ferdinand E mentions it is not as abundant as people think. Most of the natural gas that has every been found is gone. It was vented or burned as a by-product. Even today it is burned or vented to the atmospher because there is no market or pipeline needed for transporting. Even exploration today is aimed at non-conventional resources because conventional sources are depleted. With that said, you can bet your bottom dollar that gas will also become a rare commondity and sooner than you think.

Plenty of Natural Gas: Exploration and Production Companies Keep Increasing Oversupply

Your sentence "The action by E&P Companies as a whole could be short sighted" is a flat out stupid sentence. E&P Companies are independent of each other and seldom (if ever) act as a whole.

Energy Sector Performance: Not as Bad as It Appears at First Glance

What energy sector is this? Seems like some companies are missing; i.e. RIG, SLB, TOT, BHP, BP to name a few.

Is ConocoPhillips Sending Us a Warning about BP?

Watch out for Exxon....They are not cash strapped. My gut feeling is the COP will be history if they continue down the road they are currently on.

Ben Stein Favors Carbon Tax - To Support Big Oil

Ben Stein is not only a joke but an idiot. Celebs are not on my list of people who have anything of value to say.

Your Oil Stocks Aren't Coming Back

You put producing companies and service companies in the same context and then show a chart of service companies from an American Stock Exchange ETF. Why not put in some of the other indexes such as ^XNG, XOI, $OSX. They may not be ETF's but they all show the same chart. The whole house of cards was in the financial sector. And from your credentials you should have predicted this mess. I think you drive looking in your rearview mirrow.

What’s the Right Price for Oil?

Kiwichick
I stand corrected on my estimates. My numbers are a few months old and from a different source which makes your numbers even more troubling. I like this quote from Niels Bohr (Noble Prize Physicist) "Predictiion is very difficult - especially if it is about the future". Major oil companies have merged because they can't find enough oil themselves. Why? It costs less to buy reserves than to go looking for it. With todays low oil costs we may see more mergers and less drilling. More layoffs, fewer university graduates, fewer employees and fewer new development. Oil, we all know, is a non-renewable resource and we may well be near an economic "tipping point" where companies will just stop looking for domestic oil. There will still be "mom and pop" operators but no more "Big" domestic oil companies. Regardless of the percent decline or supply. The end result will be the same. So how much do you want to pay for it? I write this blog on my Dell which is made with oil. My ceramic coffee cup was made with energy derived from oil. The coffee came in a plastic bag made from oil. The coffee itself was transported to my home on ships, trucks and a car that runs on oil (and electric..a hybrid). Energy drives civilization. Are you ready for a future civilization without oil?

What’s the Right Price for Oil?

Back to your question..what is the right price of oil? Does it not depend on what you want it to be? For the companies that drill and produce it is expensive so they would like the price to be high. Perhaps in the $70 to $85 dollar range. They would be happy with that. But those that use the end products derived from oil they would like to be as low as possible. Perhaps in the the $20 to $30 dollar range. They would be happy with that. So what should the price of oil be? Depends on your point of view, right? If I were a betting man, which I am apt to be. I would bet on the oil companies eventually controlling the price of oil. Granted, the supply of oil is up and demand is down. That is short-sighted. Global DEMAND is INCREASING at an ANNUAL rate of 1.8% and PRODUCTION is DECLINING at an ANNUAL rate of 3% (some say 4 to 5%). Take off your financial blinders and look at the big picture. The price of oil has to go up. Daily reckoning does not apply to oil.

Bullish Amid Oil Majors' Lay Offs

Cycle is as cycle does. Oil company budgets are set in the fall. Money is spent in the first three quarters. If budgets are cut (which they have) then production will be down. Simple. Inventory has to come down as well. When prices go back up budgets go up, spending goes up, production goes up and the cycle begins again.