toobad41

A Crude 10 Year Perspective: The DJIA, Oil and Gold

Very interesting article. Your views parallel mine. Having been in the oil business for over 40 years I have witnessed a lot but nothing like what is happening today. I am curious about what you might think about the next ten years in terms of oil pricing. Based on your prior 10 year increases we should expect oil to be at the very least $400 a barrel in the next 10 years and gold over $5000.

Employment News a 'Downer' for Equity Markets

Just another reason to temper ones portfolio with foreign stocks.

How to Evaluate Employment Numbers

My biggest gripe about all this statistical data and the seasonal adjustments that are made is that it is too broad as an indicator. With all of the super computer power we have today I think the government could do a better job. I would like to see these figures broken down by geographical area to see the real trends. I think we would see this data would be more applicable to the upper midwest, northeast, Florida and California. That would be significant. But I guess that would be politically incorrect.

Are Unemployment Numbers Bogus?

The problem I see with your excellent study is that it is not demographically significant. In many areas of the United States it is not applicable. It seems to me that most of the unemployment is located in California, Florida, upper midwest and the northeast portions of the U.S.A. The same can be said about the housing situation and the financial problems. I agree your numbers are not bogus but just plain meaningless. Where I live unemployment is less than 5%, housing is booming and none of the banks are in financial trouble. Give me a break. Your figures in the article should be broken down demographically so it has some meaning.

A Rally of Historic Proportions

At least there is some upside to stocks. Bonds are crap. Money markets are crap. Commodities are crap but may have an upside someday. Gold is no better than bonds nor money markets. My money is on oil and oil related stocks and mutual fund energy sectors. My money is on the hurricane season coming up.

Falling or Steady Oil Prices: Either Way Is Good for Stocks

Dr. Leeb,
First-of-all I appreciate your interpretation of the current trends and how they will affect our investments. I have read two of your books thus far and have gained a lot of valuable information from them. One thing I might dwell on is the energy situation. Energy is the life blood of western civilization. That is the primary reason we are in the middle east right now and will maintain a position there for a very, very long time. That said, our import of oil will continue to rise and natural gas will follow shortly. In the United States, we produce around 5 million barrels of oil per day from 510,000 wells. That is just over 10 barrels per day average. Domestic consumption is just under 22 million barrels per day. About 77% of our usage comes from imports. Doing the math that means $50 dollars out of every $64 barrel is going to the middle east, large intergrated oil or nationalized oil companies. My opinion is that if my money is going offshore anyway why not invest in those same entities. At least I will get some of my money back.

Market's Upside Potential Is Still Limited

Well is the glass half full or half empty. Depends on your point of view doesn't it? Maybe things are just where they should be under the circumstances...today.

Are We at the Beginning of the Next Bull Market? Probably Not

Let put the record straight. The Great Depression started on October 29, 1929 (Republican Hoover in power). February, 1930 Treasury Sec. Andrew Mellon announces that the Fed will standby as the market works itself out. This philosophy continued through 1931. By 1932 over 10,000 banks failed and 80% of the markets value is lost. Hoover did little to late and FDR won the election and took over in 1933. By 1934 the markets began to recover. So my message is that the Republican Pro-business senario failed badly. I am not saying the FDR dream plans worked. I am saying doing nothing would have been a terrible thing to do. I am pro-business but somethings in a larger scale cannot work themselves out. This is the senario we are in today. This is bigger than anything we can imagine. I hope Mark Lundeen is wrong; I truly do.

Are We at the Beginning of the Next Bull Market? Probably Not

At last someone has made an effort to understand this current market. However, I don't believe we are headed towards a depression as Lundeen seems to indicate. If I recall the "Great Depression" had no input from the government. There was no Federal insurance on savings and people made runs on banks. Banks could not cover and closed their doors. We have checks today that were not in effect back then. I am anxious to see the "BEV" curve after the next 80 weeks or so. It should be interesting to say the least... Maybe WWIII will have started by then and take us out of this mess.

Dent, Napier, and Prechter - Wise to Heed Their Predictions

One thing I noticed about Dent's predictions are that they are always being adjusted. That's why he recommends subscribing to his service. In his latest book he said the dow would be in the 10,000+ range in the first quarter of 2009. We are almost through April and we are not there yet. I doubt that will be. I suspect his news letter will re-adjust that prediction. Predictors make fortune tellers look good. Like someone said earlier...Dent will be right sometime down the road. But not right now. He can see the corner but not what is around it.

What Will Fill Our Economic Desert?

Here are just a few to fit in your economic desert.....Autozone, Advance Auto Parts,and O'Reilly. When cars are not selling you have to keep your old car running. The same may be said about keeping your old house (like mine) in good condition. So that makes Home Depot and Lowe's look good also. Just my opinion.

Could the Dow Sink Another 50% by 2012?

You use Harry S. Dent to set us up with fear tactics then you tell us to buy long in ETF's! What a pitch man. You just don't make any sense at all. Why not start off with buying long in ETF's and then tell us about why we should be wary about the future. That does not make any sense either.

Is This (Finally) the Bottom? Part II

The Federal Banksters have one goal in mind and that is to make money. Greed rules and whatever it takes to get their goal back on track will be to get the market going back up. They have sold their soul to the demon called money. Without money you cannot buy "stuff" and we all know that we all need more "stuff". How can we measure our greed without buying more "stuff"? The more "stuff" you have the more "stuff" you want. Status is everything. Money buys you more "stuff" and "status". I can go on and on...

'Too Big To Fail'? Wait - What About Anti-Trust?

Finally, someone has addressed this issue in terms of breaking up these TBTF corporations. I've thought of this even as the AIG situation raised its ugly head months ago. Why "monopoly" has never been brought up is a mystery to me. Perhaps because of AIG political contributions made in the past and promise to make in the future.

Will the Geithner Plan Work? Let's Hope Not!

Where do you think all those trillions of dollars are going to go? China. We won't see any of it. China gets most of our money now and when they get the rest of it they will hoard it. End of story.