Todd....you hit the nail on the head. I could not express your blog any better. Geopolitics will figure strongly in the next few years...if not sooner. Iran will not fire the first missile...Israel will make sure of that. They have done that in the past and they will deal with it in the future. In any case, oil will rocket higher than any missile.
Todd, I agree with your interpretation of the direction petroleum is going. People don't realize that what they call alternatives to fossil fuels are not "alternatives" but "supplements". From what I have learned along those lines is that all the various available energy sources are just supplements to fossil fuels. They are not alternatives at all. An alternative is a choice and right now I don't see that we have a choice. Fossil fuels will rule for a very, very long time.
Cycle is as cycle does. Oil company budgets are set in the fall. Money is spent in the first three quarters. If budgets are cut (which they have) then production will be down. Simple. Inventory has to come down as well. When prices go back up budgets go up, spending goes up, production goes up and the cycle begins again.
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Nice evaluation in that 60 minute segment. To add to the bubble I add the war in Iraq, which also began in 2003 is another factor. The military is the largest user of petroleum next to Agri-business in America.
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The big, integrated, oil company is becoming a thing of the past. These companies are spending more time, energy and money on alternative fuels. Oil and Gas is just paying for that research. I would invest in the smaller Oil and Gas producers. They will be the ones to carry the bulk of the future productivity. The Exxon/Mobils of the world are too huge to generate income from oil and gas. They are dinosaurs on the verge of extinction.
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