Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
NMC I find this quote by Marilynn Robinson quite interesting. A very eloquent and well written piece of useless crap. Much like a small turd covered with a coating of rich Belgian chocolate - delicious tasting but of dubious nutritional value. Allow me to translate and condense for the laymen:
A crisis brought about by greedy bankers (private financial system) is now being blamed on the socially disadvantaged, the citizenry at large, and the government. The very same government that has created our prosperity (institutions and customs that have been major engines of wealth creation) is now being asked to cut back (radically simple economics)! These austerity people will destroy (advocate antisocial ideologies) all the social justice we've created. If they ever get in control they'll destroy the entire nation and anarchy (too busy defending our food supplies with armed force) will rule.
Typically I think your comments are well reasoned, but this one with it's referral to starvation as an "austerian" social policy really stuck in my craw. If any reader wants to eat what you're serving and give you a "like" that's their prerogative, but in my opinion, chocolate coated crap deserves the garbage can.
Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
Geoffster, I agree with your sentiments except one: "It is undeniable that society as a whole has benefited from this largess." It is certainly not undeniable. The removal of risk is not without cost, and that cost is the decrease in available opportunities. Risk and opportunity, as any good entrepreneur or investor will tell you, go hand in hand. The "risk" or possibility of failure is often a greater motivator for action than the reward of success. Too much risk removal results in too little opportunity, and then eventually stagnation.
Euro Area Economy - Still Going Down The Drain [View article]
"As for the road that we chose to travel in obvious contrast to the road that Europe chose to travel it would seem that global investors who put their money on the table have spoken quite clearly."
Yes, I too want to invest were "free money" is being handed out. Profligate spenders make much better customers than savers - until the money runs out that is.
1) Fukishima will not be off limits any longer than Hiroshima and Nagasaki - they are not ghost towns.
2) If you want to examine a nation that has had negative population growth look at Ireland. In 1850 the population of Ireland was 8M and the population of the UK was 11M. In 1990 the population of Ireland was 4.5M and the population of the UK was 55M.
The End Of The Consumer? What The Long-Term Decline Of Consumption Means For Investors [View article]
"If the same immigration policies were adopted today as 100 years ago, you would see a population of 2 billion people who believe this."
And if we adopted the same economic policies of 100 years ago this might be possible, but the current welfare state would collapse under the weight of a few billion more "huddled masses".
Why Reinhart And Rogoff Still Matter [View article]
RR's work is certainly not superfluous. Your thesis may be correct for short term fluctuations in debt levels, but not for long term debt growth. RR originally wanted to determine the cause of sovereign defaults over the past two centuries. They found a strong correlation between sovereign defaults and debt levels exceeding 90%. High debt levels over time can be sustained if they are accompanied by high growth, but every economy suffers downturns. If the downturn is big enough and the debt is high enough, the nation can experience a crisis.
Why Reinhart And Rogoff Still Matter [View article]
This would be true if debt levels fluctuated around a median level as we went in and out of recession, but they don't. Average debt has continued to increase as a percentage of GDP over time since the debt incurred for WWII was paid down. Talk about ignoring the facts! Too much government debt, like too much personal debt, isn't a problem when times are good and the money's flowing in. It's a problem when times are bad and the money stops. That's when the size of the debt really matters.
The End Of The Consumer? What The Long-Term Decline Of Consumption Means For Investors [View article]
"Government transfer payments are the best way to prop up consumer incomes"
Actually, the best way to prop up consumer incomes is with economic growth and jobs. Transfer payments are what you use when you don't have a proper understanding of economics and don't know what else to do.
Credit Expansion In Europe - Going The Way Of Japan? [View article]
"This will continue to put great pressure on all bubble activities in the euro area – many of the capital malinvestments of the boom that haven't been liquidated yet are bound to be liquidated as time goes on, and it will be very difficult to start fresh bubble activities in spite of very low administered interest rates."
Although I agree with your article general, the presumption that "capital malinvestments are bound to be liquidated" is not justified. It is precisely the attempt to forestall the liquidation of capital malivestments that got Japan into deep trouble in the first place. Never underestimate the power of bankrupt institutions to perpetuate themselves.
Gold And Price Inflation... And Credit Inflation [View article]
Gold is not as strongly correlated with inflation as it is to negative real interest rates, i.e., financial repression. The Fed's comments about ending, or at least reducing, QE implies higher interest rates and a lower degree of financial repression, which reduces the value of gold.
Shale Oil Is A Big Game Changer For Dow-To-Gold Ratio [View article]
What heritage are you talking about? I am well aware that the Chinese invented a great many things. In fact they were the first to pipe and use NG. However, these inventions did not stop their decline. The heritage that the Ming Empire left their decedents was also 200 years of dominance by the West. During the same period, the British empire of Victoria and Albert may have left a legacy of industrial pollution and social upheaval, but it also left the British as the most prosperous, educated, and healthiest people on the planet. Given the choice in the 19th century of life in industrial Britain or rural China, most would choose Britain. You can leave your children a pristine environment and a wonderful culture, but if you do it at the expense of the health of your economy, you will most likely end up like China in the 19th century.
Marx was right about one thing; history is largely an economic phenomenon. The winners do not only write history, they impose their values, social and economic, on the losers, who by necessity must accept them or risk falling into cultural oblivion. One thing is absolutely certain: Throughout history, the philosophy of the winners has NEVER been "Go Slowly!".
Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
I find this quote by Marilynn Robinson quite interesting. A very eloquent and well written piece of useless crap. Much like a small turd covered with a coating of rich Belgian chocolate - delicious tasting but of dubious nutritional value. Allow me to translate and condense for the laymen:
A crisis brought about by greedy bankers (private financial system) is now being blamed on the socially disadvantaged, the citizenry at large, and the government. The very same government that has created our prosperity (institutions and customs that have been major engines of wealth creation) is now being asked to cut back (radically simple economics)! These austerity people will destroy (advocate antisocial ideologies) all the social justice we've created. If they ever get in control they'll destroy the entire nation and anarchy (too busy defending our food supplies with armed force) will rule.
Typically I think your comments are well reasoned, but this one with it's referral to starvation as an "austerian" social policy really stuck in my craw. If any reader wants to eat what you're serving and give you a "like" that's their prerogative, but in my opinion, chocolate coated crap deserves the garbage can.
Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
I agree with your sentiments except one: "It is undeniable that society as a whole has benefited from this largess." It is certainly not undeniable. The removal of risk is not without cost, and that cost is the decrease in available opportunities. Risk and opportunity, as any good entrepreneur or investor will tell you, go hand in hand. The "risk" or possibility of failure is often a greater motivator for action than the reward of success. Too much risk removal results in too little opportunity, and then eventually stagnation.
Euro Area Economy - Still Going Down The Drain [View article]
Just making sure you don't confuse rising markets with economic prosperity.
Euro Area Economy - Still Going Down The Drain [View article]
Yes, I too want to invest were "free money" is being handed out. Profligate spenders make much better customers than savers - until the money runs out that is.
The A.B.E. Of Economics [View article]
2) If you want to examine a nation that has had negative population growth look at Ireland. In 1850 the population of Ireland was 8M and the population of the UK was 11M. In 1990 the population of Ireland was 4.5M and the population of the UK was 55M.
The End Of The Consumer? What The Long-Term Decline Of Consumption Means For Investors [View article]
And if we adopted the same economic policies of 100 years ago this might be possible, but the current welfare state would collapse under the weight of a few billion more "huddled masses".
Why Reinhart And Rogoff Still Matter [View article]
Why Reinhart And Rogoff Still Matter [View article]
Debunking The Keynesian Policy Framework: The Myth Of The Magic Pendulum [View article]
The End Of The Consumer? What The Long-Term Decline Of Consumption Means For Investors [View article]
Actually, the best way to prop up consumer incomes is with economic growth and jobs. Transfer payments are what you use when you don't have a proper understanding of economics and don't know what else to do.
The End Of The Consumer? What The Long-Term Decline Of Consumption Means For Investors [View article]
Wild Market Moves In Japan [View article]
Credit Expansion In Europe - Going The Way Of Japan? [View article]
Although I agree with your article general, the presumption that "capital malinvestments are bound to be liquidated" is not justified. It is precisely the attempt to forestall the liquidation of capital malivestments that got Japan into deep trouble in the first place. Never underestimate the power of bankrupt institutions to perpetuate themselves.
Gold And Price Inflation... And Credit Inflation [View article]
Shale Oil Is A Big Game Changer For Dow-To-Gold Ratio [View article]
Marx was right about one thing; history is largely an economic phenomenon. The winners do not only write history, they impose their values, social and economic, on the losers, who by necessity must accept them or risk falling into cultural oblivion. One thing is absolutely certain: Throughout history, the philosophy of the winners has NEVER been "Go Slowly!".