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kertch

kertch
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  • Why Yellen And The Feds Are Bubble Blind - They Apparently Believe Wall Street's EPS Scam [View article]
    Yes, I can already picture Paul Krugnam saying: "If only they had spent five Trillion dollars like I called for ..."
    Mar 24, 2015. 01:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Night Of The Curling Laminates [View article]
    Yes, I think he used every lumber pun in the book.
    Mar 17, 2015. 09:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Business Cycles, Bubbles And Changing Valuations [View article]
    Yes, but once it starts, the Fed is likely to lower interest rates again or restart QE in an attempt to flight it. My question is: Will further intervention delay the eventual meltdown, increase the severity of the eventual meltdown, or both?
    Mar 16, 2015. 12:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inaccuracy Or Misconduct? [View article]
    Who said we should do everything at extremes? You're the one who scoffed at "leaving things alone".

    "Feeding "banksters" is obviously unproductive.. Feeding the "little people" another story all together.."

    Says who? We've been "feeding" little people since LBJ started the War on Poverty. Pure demand-side economics. It was a moral decision, but what did that accomplish economically? Nothing. The big argument of the "We Must Do Something!" interventionists was that if the big banks collapsed so would the entire banking system, and in the end the "little people" would suffer. Well, they've suffered anyway. How about letting nature take it's course and allowing some big banks to fail. That would send a clear message to the rest of the bankers. Every single boondoggle in the history of man has been sold as a way to help the "little guy".
    Feb 20, 2015. 01:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Inaccuracy Or Misconduct? [View article]
    Unicorns and fairies is thinking that micromanaging everything will make everything better.
    Feb 19, 2015. 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inaccuracy Or Misconduct? [View article]
    "They just picked the wrong winners and losers"

    I guess that all depends on who you are. You claim that they picked the
    "wrong" winners and losers. But that's a moral judgment, not an economic one, and making economic decisions based on someone's moral position is how we got into this mess in the first place.
    Feb 19, 2015. 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terror Cover-Up Scandal In Argentina: Investment Implications Of Prosecutor Nisman's Death [View article]
    First, the owners of the pipeline charge for transport - it's a viable business and not all owners are Canadian. Second, the oil is now being transported by rail through the US far more expensively and far less efficiently by none other than democrat supporter and billionaire Warren Buffet - can you say "cronyism"? Third, the states which the oil pipeline passes through get to tax the oil flow. Fourth, oil is useless black gunk - until it's refined, and the U.S. makes a lot of money and provides a lot of jobs in the refinery business. Fifth, if you control the pipeline, the refineries, and the ports, you essentially control the oil. Oil transported to the gulf and refined can always be redirected to US users if the need arises. Oil shipped exclusively through Canada cannot, unless you want to invade our northern neighbors. Putin understands these things, which is why he worked hard to insure all the oil from the Caspian Sea basin ultimately flows Russia. Idiots in America don't. If you don't think controlling energy flows will benefit the US, look what it's done for Russia with respect to Europe.
    Feb 5, 2015. 12:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Terror Cover-Up Scandal In Argentina: Investment Implications Of Prosecutor Nisman's Death [View article]
    Far more people were killed by the supposedly atheistic Nazi and Communist governments of Germany, the USSR, Vietnam, and Cambodia, than all the religious wars of history. Religions hardly have a monopoly on violence. Everyone carrying out war and committing mass crimes needs a justification to mollify their people. Religion is just a convenient excuse. The Nazis used racial superiority, and the Communists used socialism. Eliminating religion will not eliminate war and violence, nor will it eliminate stupid ideas.
    Feb 4, 2015. 12:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terror Cover-Up Scandal In Argentina: Investment Implications Of Prosecutor Nisman's Death [View article]
    No more Bush's or Clintons in the White House. The implied nepotism is overwhelming, and quite frankly, disgusting . There are plenty of women who could run for president besides Hillary, as she's the lower female common denominator. Let her run a state for few years. Real leaders need real experience running real organizations with real accountability. The Clinton Foundation does not count. Until then she's not qualified, and riding Bill's coattails does not qualify her.

    "I'm sure she spent her eight years in the White House learning how it's done." Yeah sure. There are White House aids who have spend DECADES learning how it's done. That is not a serious qualification for president.
    Feb 2, 2015. 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terror Cover-Up Scandal In Argentina: Investment Implications Of Prosecutor Nisman's Death [View article]
    And what about Obama's whiny, self-centered little temper tantrum one-man government shutdown of the oil industry in Alaska and the Keystone pipeline? What will that cost our economy? If Ted Cruz had committed a crime, Eric Holder would have started the indictment long ago.
    Feb 2, 2015. 04:46 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Terror Cover-Up Scandal In Argentina: Investment Implications Of Prosecutor Nisman's Death [View article]
    We wouldn't need to worry about Big Business if Big Government was not so corrupt.
    Feb 2, 2015. 04:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mario Draghi: Charlatan Of The Apparatchiks [View article]
    Some of the data leads to an interesting question:

    Do rising middle-class wages create increased economic growth, or does increased economic growth create rising middle-class wages?

    Europe has had increasing worker wages but has experienced slow growth. The U.S. has exhibited declining median wages but has experienced better growth than Europe. It does not appear that the steadily increasing wages of the Europeans is creating new consumer-driven businesses and adding to growth, at least not in any economically meaningful way. Apparently the answer to the question above is:

    Neither at this time.

    There are other possible factors that are not considered like comparative global wage rates, exchange rates, and benefit values, but I would say that wages are mostly a determinant of local and global labor markets and far more loosely tied to the state of an economy, at least under stable conditions. During bubbles and busts however, the relationship between the state of the economy and wage rates can obviously change.
    Jan 26, 2015. 01:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day The Central Bank Powers Came To An End [View article]
    "Let me reword that: Economics, like other "soft" sciences must have some grounding in reality, otherwise it wouldn't be [successful]. Science can be a science even if it is wrong. The early economists were wrong about more things than they were right.

    Yes, bad policies based on faulty economic ideas can run economies into the ground. If you want to call that "grounding in reality", well, OK."

    That can be said about any field of science. Early on physics and chemistry were more wrong than right. A "grounding in reality" is just another way of saying that it's possible to test hypothesis by predicting outcomes based on known inputs following a scientific methodology.

    "Actually, you do not need any accounting to have a profitable business. You do not need money. You just need a good eye on the market, and a good eye for value. Did you ever hear about the guy who literally started with a paperclip and traded it for something else 15 or 20 times and ended up with a small house? No accounting necessary, nor money."

    Yes, what you say is true. You can produce profit without the use of accounting. However you have no measurement system and that leaves you to assume that the house is worth more than the paperclip. That's fine when comparing a paperclip to a house, but what about comparing a box of paperclips to a box of staples? How good is your "good eye"? Anyway, there can be no science of economics without a system of economic measurement.

    "Opinions that raise the price of a stock are sometimes driven by opinions that a company's products are superior. In other words, you were wrong to say that opinions do not ever influence profits, because clearly they can, and do."

    I am saying that opinions about stock prices do not influence profits in any meaningful way. It is opinions about profits that influence stock prices.

    "What you said is only true for a small slice of those sciences. Your statement is mostly false. Example: The 3 body problem. Example: String theory."

    Defining the methodologies and limitations of economics is like defining the methodologies and limitations of physics. It depends on what branch you are describing. Mostly false? How about "only under limited circumstances".

    "In the price example you gave, the price is rounded to the nearest penny, or dime, or dollar (etc) out of necessity. But a share of stock can be priced at values including small fractions of a penny. But no one worries about such fractions of a penny. What is your fascination with discreet measurements?"

    Sorry, by discreet measurement I am referring to a measurement with a single real-number value as opposed to a measurement with a probabilistic value. Such numbers that can be used in a function f(x)=y, where neither x nor y are themselves probabilistic functions. Monetary input and output values in economics are not probabilities, although there are limitations to the accuracy of their measurement. Economists attempt to achieve discreet results not probabilistic results. I'm not saying that this is the right or wrong method to use for Macroeconomics, but it's certainly has proven to be the way to do accounting.

    "No, actually, the number of potential outcomes is both infinite and bounded. You are forgetting about rounding. See the Temperature example herein."

    You are correct, I should have said that. My mistake.
    Jan 25, 2015. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 New Red Flags Waving [View article]
    Yes David we agree on that. I may have been confused by previous your statement.
    Jan 25, 2015. 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 New Red Flags Waving [View article]
    "The reason we went to war is because Saddam Hussein tried to start an oil market in Iraq, to trade oil in a currency other than US $$$. Whenever that happens, the oil men in the USA hold a secret meeting and decide which foreign leader to kill."

    It's not the oil men that panic. They really don't care what currency oil is traded in. It's the U.S. government. Much of the strength of the dollar is based on the fact that it is the currency in which oil is bought and sold. If nations stopped needing dollars for oil transactions there would soon be a surplus of dollars and it's value would plunge. We would no longer be able to borrow prolifically and run continuous trade deficits without consequence. In other words, our current way of life would come to an end.
    Jan 25, 2015. 04:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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