peachberry_tea's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/252030/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/160630-silver-wheaton-propelling-itself-to-the-top-of-the-food-chain?source=feed#comment-669273 669273
thanks]]> Wed, 09 Sep 2009 15:37:11 -0400
thanks]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147623-three-compelling-chinese-stocks?source=feed#comment-586599 586599
Had a few questions for you if you don't mind:

NEP:
1. I was wondering how they came up with the 75m barrels of reserves. I understand that they had 3rd party assess their proven reserves but I'm not sure how they got their probable reserves numbers - are those management estimates? Do they have a PV10 for their probably reserves?
2. How did they arrive at that 35% extraction rate? Is that pretty typical for the industry/the type of oilfields they have? I don't know the industry so if you could provide a bit of insight into that

GSI:
1. Could you talk about their liquidity? Their current ratio is looking a bit ugly though you make a really good case for their value.]]> Mon, 13 Jul 2009 19:05:29 -0400
Had a few questions for you if you don't mind:

NEP:
1. I was wondering how they came up with the 75m barrels of reserves. I understand that they had 3rd party assess their proven reserves but I'm not sure how they got their probable reserves numbers - are those management estimates? Do they have a PV10 for their probably reserves?
2. How did they arrive at that 35% extraction rate? Is that pretty typical for the industry/the type of oilfields they have? I don't know the industry so if you could provide a bit of insight into that

GSI:
1. Could you talk about their liquidity? Their current ratio is looking a bit ugly though you make a really good case for their value.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140988-10-upcoming-catalysts-for-atp-oil-and-gas?source=feed#comment-572295 572295
Devon would you happen to have any information on other oil/gas asset sales and how much those have been going for? I know ATP sold off some last yr towards yr end.. what was the price per barrel for that?

I guess the takeaway with Addax is that deals are still going thru despite the economic environment. I think this bodes well for ATP in case they need to sell assets to meet their covenants.

Much rather that they didn't have to though, ATPG selling their assets that is. Selling shares or selling assets - both dilutes the shareholder.]]> Thu, 02 Jul 2009 19:09:22 -0400
Devon would you happen to have any information on other oil/gas asset sales and how much those have been going for? I know ATP sold off some last yr towards yr end.. what was the price per barrel for that?

I guess the takeaway with Addax is that deals are still going thru despite the economic environment. I think this bodes well for ATP in case they need to sell assets to meet their covenants.

Much rather that they didn't have to though, ATPG selling their assets that is. Selling shares or selling assets - both dilutes the shareholder.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144015-china-north-east-petroleum-catapults-to-the-next-level?source=feed#comment-561178 561178
Their proven developed reserves were determined by an independent party.. and that's 5.4mil barrels like you mentioned. How bout their probable/possible reserves? Were those management estimates or where did those reserve figures come from?]]> Wed, 24 Jun 2009 19:46:12 -0400
Their proven developed reserves were determined by an independent party.. and that's 5.4mil barrels like you mentioned. How bout their probable/possible reserves? Were those management estimates or where did those reserve figures come from?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144015-china-north-east-petroleum-catapults-to-the-next-level?source=feed#comment-560833 560833 Wed, 24 Jun 2009 15:47:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144015-china-north-east-petroleum-catapults-to-the-next-level?source=feed#comment-560772 560772
Wanted to get your thoughts on how reliable their reserve numbers are or where those numbers come from. Do they hire 3rd party engineers to determine the reserves? Or did they know how much oil was in the ground when they got they leased the stuff from PTR or whoever? If you could shine a bit of light on that that'd be great.

Thanks again]]> Wed, 24 Jun 2009 15:02:36 -0400
Wanted to get your thoughts on how reliable their reserve numbers are or where those numbers come from. Do they hire 3rd party engineers to determine the reserves? Or did they know how much oil was in the ground when they got they leased the stuff from PTR or whoever? If you could shine a bit of light on that that'd be great.

Thanks again]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140988-10-upcoming-catalysts-for-atp-oil-and-gas?source=feed#comment-543163 543163
On Jun 11 01:35 AM peachberry_tea wrote:

> Devon, have you heard anything about how many shares management intends
> to issue?]]> Thu, 11 Jun 2009 20:28:13 -0400
On Jun 11 01:35 AM peachberry_tea wrote:

> Devon, have you heard anything about how many shares management intends
> to issue?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/140988-10-upcoming-catalysts-for-atp-oil-and-gas?source=feed#comment-541641 541641 Thu, 11 Jun 2009 01:35:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140988-10-upcoming-catalysts-for-atp-oil-and-gas?source=feed#comment-530369 530369
Thanks for another informative post.

I was wondering what your thoughts were on short term oil prices. There's been a bit of talk about oil inventories and that there's a bit of speculation behind the recent increase in oil prices. Predicting short term pricing is a sucker's game, yes, but just wanted your thoughts on it anyway because you seem like you'd be fairly informed with this sort of thing.

Thanks again]]> Wed, 03 Jun 2009 13:57:36 -0400
Thanks for another informative post.

I was wondering what your thoughts were on short term oil prices. There's been a bit of talk about oil inventories and that there's a bit of speculation behind the recent increase in oil prices. Predicting short term pricing is a sucker's game, yes, but just wanted your thoughts on it anyway because you seem like you'd be fairly informed with this sort of thing.

Thanks again]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137984-atp-oil-gas-s-forgotten-infrastructure-value?source=feed#comment-523313 523313
Thanks for the reply. You make some really good points and it shows you’ve really done your homework. This discussion has been a breath of fresh air compared to what usually passes for discussion on boards.

Would you mind linking me to the credit agreement if you have that handy? I just knived thru what you copied onto the msg and I’ll need a closer look, but it looks like it doesn’t it includes any short term payables, etc.

This’ll bring us to (1.3b-1m)/300m so they’re still out but a lot closer than what I had before. Once they pay down the 300m asset facility that’ll bring it manageably close to 3/1. So they’re fine if they pull off that sale-leaseback deal with the Titan because that should take net debt down to 1.0b. They’ll need oil/gas prices help their ebitdax out (hopefully those rumours of high oil inventories/lack of demand doesn’t send prices down again).

Hmm.. I guess the conclusion is we can’t be completely certain at this point that they’ll comply with the covenants. It’s possible for them to make it but it’s going to take some work. There’s always the risk that a storm could hit them and they’ll lose production in the latter part of ’09 and that could hurt their ebitdax in Q4. Of course, all this wouldn’t matter if they could secure a waiver. I’d really like to see them get a waiver because it’s still too close for my liking (I’m a value investor and I like sure wins), or even cut down on capex. It would've been good if the CFO addressed this openly too, and just said they were going to work wit the bank or do what's necessary to meet the covenant.

But anyhow, worst case scenario is they sell some assets to make the ebitdax number. Their valuation is good enough that even selling off some properties at firesale prices and it's still a bargain. And as you pointed out if there’s a sale then they should be able to generate at least some gains. Either on the pipelines or one of their properties (I assume it’s on their books cheap enough to generate a gain).

Devon are my conclusions now in line with what you’re seeing?]]> Fri, 29 May 2009 15:43:45 -0400
Thanks for the reply. You make some really good points and it shows you’ve really done your homework. This discussion has been a breath of fresh air compared to what usually passes for discussion on boards.

Would you mind linking me to the credit agreement if you have that handy? I just knived thru what you copied onto the msg and I’ll need a closer look, but it looks like it doesn’t it includes any short term payables, etc.

This’ll bring us to (1.3b-1m)/300m so they’re still out but a lot closer than what I had before. Once they pay down the 300m asset facility that’ll bring it manageably close to 3/1. So they’re fine if they pull off that sale-leaseback deal with the Titan because that should take net debt down to 1.0b. They’ll need oil/gas prices help their ebitdax out (hopefully those rumours of high oil inventories/lack of demand doesn’t send prices down again).

Hmm.. I guess the conclusion is we can’t be completely certain at this point that they’ll comply with the covenants. It’s possible for them to make it but it’s going to take some work. There’s always the risk that a storm could hit them and they’ll lose production in the latter part of ’09 and that could hurt their ebitdax in Q4. Of course, all this wouldn’t matter if they could secure a waiver. I’d really like to see them get a waiver because it’s still too close for my liking (I’m a value investor and I like sure wins), or even cut down on capex. It would've been good if the CFO addressed this openly too, and just said they were going to work wit the bank or do what's necessary to meet the covenant.

But anyhow, worst case scenario is they sell some assets to make the ebitdax number. Their valuation is good enough that even selling off some properties at firesale prices and it's still a bargain. And as you pointed out if there’s a sale then they should be able to generate at least some gains. Either on the pipelines or one of their properties (I assume it’s on their books cheap enough to generate a gain).

Devon are my conclusions now in line with what you’re seeing?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137984-atp-oil-gas-s-forgotten-infrastructure-value?source=feed#comment-521926 521926
if you project their Q1 EBITDAX over '09 (around $50M in Q1 * 4 = $200M for 2009) and compare it to net debt ($1.7M) then you'll see that practically no amount of debt reduction will get them under 3/1 net debt/ebitdax. even if they pay off the $296 left on their asset facility it's still only $1.4M/$200M, which is 7/1.. at this point they'd have to earn or sell of assets (at a gain) for about $300M to make the 3/1 (i.e. 1.4M/(200+300M) ~3/1)

another cause for concern is how the CFO handled the EBITDAX question in their conference call.. when asked about their covenants and what EBITDAX ATPG were using that has staying within the their covenants in '09, the CFO said EBITDAX was "driven off our internal estimates of production and we have not revealed that at this point". this was a huge red flag for me. while i haven't looked at their production figures in detail, it seems like a stretch to make a $500M ebitdax figure that'll keep them in compliance with covenants.

you can see the conference call transcript here: seekingalpha.com/artic...

now i know you've stated that the lender shouldn't have problems even if the covenants are breached because ATPG should be able to make its debt repayment. as a general statement i'd completely agree with it. to simply shrug off a potential covenant violation based on such a general statement tho - i think that's dangerous. i don't know who their lender is (i haven't looked) but it's entirely conceivable the lender may have its own liquidity issues and will use the covenant breach to call in its loan. now this is a very extreme case, but i think to invest in ATPG you have to realize that this risk is there, however remote, because this changes yoru risk/reward tradeoff in the invesetment

overall, i still think ATPG is has a very good risk/reward tradeoff despite what i've pointed out above. i think the upside and value that ATPG represents is probably worth the risks i've mentioned above. i haven't forgotten about the 20% insider ownership, or the fact that the CEO knew all about their covenants when he made that 80k share purchase. i also believe that ATPG should be able to secure a waiver from its covenants if necessary.

hmm if there's any disagreement with what i've presented above i'd love to hear it. in fact, i'd love to be completely wrong, because ATPG is a screaming value and a multibagger in 5 yrs or so, no matter how you valuate it, and i'd like to put money into this

disclosure: no positions]]> Thu, 28 May 2009 16:51:14 -0400
if you project their Q1 EBITDAX over '09 (around $50M in Q1 * 4 = $200M for 2009) and compare it to net debt ($1.7M) then you'll see that practically no amount of debt reduction will get them under 3/1 net debt/ebitdax. even if they pay off the $296 left on their asset facility it's still only $1.4M/$200M, which is 7/1.. at this point they'd have to earn or sell of assets (at a gain) for about $300M to make the 3/1 (i.e. 1.4M/(200+300M) ~3/1)

another cause for concern is how the CFO handled the EBITDAX question in their conference call.. when asked about their covenants and what EBITDAX ATPG were using that has staying within the their covenants in '09, the CFO said EBITDAX was "driven off our internal estimates of production and we have not revealed that at this point". this was a huge red flag for me. while i haven't looked at their production figures in detail, it seems like a stretch to make a $500M ebitdax figure that'll keep them in compliance with covenants.

you can see the conference call transcript here: seekingalpha.com/artic...

now i know you've stated that the lender shouldn't have problems even if the covenants are breached because ATPG should be able to make its debt repayment. as a general statement i'd completely agree with it. to simply shrug off a potential covenant violation based on such a general statement tho - i think that's dangerous. i don't know who their lender is (i haven't looked) but it's entirely conceivable the lender may have its own liquidity issues and will use the covenant breach to call in its loan. now this is a very extreme case, but i think to invest in ATPG you have to realize that this risk is there, however remote, because this changes yoru risk/reward tradeoff in the invesetment

overall, i still think ATPG is has a very good risk/reward tradeoff despite what i've pointed out above. i think the upside and value that ATPG represents is probably worth the risks i've mentioned above. i haven't forgotten about the 20% insider ownership, or the fact that the CEO knew all about their covenants when he made that 80k share purchase. i also believe that ATPG should be able to secure a waiver from its covenants if necessary.

hmm if there's any disagreement with what i've presented above i'd love to hear it. in fact, i'd love to be completely wrong, because ATPG is a screaming value and a multibagger in 5 yrs or so, no matter how you valuate it, and i'd like to put money into this

disclosure: no positions]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137984-atp-oil-gas-s-forgotten-infrastructure-value?source=feed#comment-513571 513571
Thanks for the clarification. Where did you get the pv10 for their p2 reserves if you don't mind me asking. Was that also in their 10k? I'm new to following ATPG so I'm just getting oriented.

I think you have a pretty good investment thesis though. Thanks for the article.]]> Thu, 21 May 2009 18:13:37 -0400
Thanks for the clarification. Where did you get the pv10 for their p2 reserves if you don't mind me asking. Was that also in their 10k? I'm new to following ATPG so I'm just getting oriented.

I think you have a pretty good investment thesis though. Thanks for the article.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137984-atp-oil-gas-s-forgotten-infrastructure-value?source=feed#comment-512156 512156 Wed, 20 May 2009 20:15:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133082-atp-oil-gas-value-after-a-stock-and-commodity-collapse?source=feed#comment-511714 511714
Disclosure: no positions]]> Wed, 20 May 2009 14:13:08 -0400
Disclosure: no positions]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134146-hexcel-value-in-the-honeycomb?source=feed#comment-493234 493234 I'd like to see more of is how you can be certain of HXL's future cash flows when you're doing your valuation, esp in the near term. You can bring in a bit of near term industry outlook for this
If you're looking for safe companies with good valuations you might try TC ESEA
Disclosure: I own TC and intend to add ESEA at a better-than-today valuation]]> Thu, 07 May 2009 01:27:44 -0400 I'd like to see more of is how you can be certain of HXL's future cash flows when you're doing your valuation, esp in the near term. You can bring in a bit of near term industry outlook for this
If you're looking for safe companies with good valuations you might try TC ESEA
Disclosure: I own TC and intend to add ESEA at a better-than-today valuation]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126799-seven-reasons-why-the-coke-huiyuan-deal-failed?source=feed#comment-432971 432971 Thu, 19 Mar 2009 19:56:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115403-fundamentals-of-potash?source=feed#comment-361075 361075 Tue, 20 Jan 2009 14:08:12 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114549-using-sector-weight-analysis-to-identify-the-next-bubble?source=feed#comment-355482 355482
but to say that energy isn't going to go up because it's close to its "long run average" % of the S&P is suspicious though.. because the weightings of sectors on the S&P/market changes over time.. and if you make the fundamental argument that over the long run the global economy is booming (and 2008 is just a hiccup) then it makes sense that materials and energy sectors will grow relative to the sectors on the S&P.. and therefore if these sectors are to grow then their weighing should also increase above and beyond the "long run average"]]> Wed, 14 Jan 2009 10:53:26 -0500
but to say that energy isn't going to go up because it's close to its "long run average" % of the S&P is suspicious though.. because the weightings of sectors on the S&P/market changes over time.. and if you make the fundamental argument that over the long run the global economy is booming (and 2008 is just a hiccup) then it makes sense that materials and energy sectors will grow relative to the sectors on the S&P.. and therefore if these sectors are to grow then their weighing should also increase above and beyond the "long run average"]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/101730-companies-i-invest-in-those-with-a-future?source=feed#comment-290137 290137 i honestly don't see how companies like diageo and fortis will cut their dividends

people drink in times like these.. and alberta still needs its electricity]]> Sat, 25 Oct 2008 04:18:39 -0400 i honestly don't see how companies like diageo and fortis will cut their dividends

people drink in times like these.. and alberta still needs its electricity]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100615-potash-and-agrium-targets-slashed-ubs-analyst?source=feed#comment-286904 286904 it's easy to unload on them when they're way off
but i think anyone who has actually tried to valuate POT or AGU will realize that the current valuation is just ridulously low.. P/E of 5 for AGU?
yeah most ppl could see the commodity bubble bursting, but i didn't see that kind of P/E coming either
i'm pretty sure i would've laughed if someone told me AGU/POT were gonna have forward PEs of less than 8 way back in June]]> Tue, 21 Oct 2008 02:00:41 -0400 it's easy to unload on them when they're way off
but i think anyone who has actually tried to valuate POT or AGU will realize that the current valuation is just ridulously low.. P/E of 5 for AGU?
yeah most ppl could see the commodity bubble bursting, but i didn't see that kind of P/E coming either
i'm pretty sure i would've laughed if someone told me AGU/POT were gonna have forward PEs of less than 8 way back in June]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98263-the-market-hates-mosaic-phosphates-not-up-to-snuff?source=feed#comment-273099 273099
My only concern is that "the market is crazy" is too easy an answer. While I see and agree with the arguments you're making (they're sound) I'd still like to ask questions - it's simply prudent investing.

With decreased crop prices do farmers still have high enough margins to user fertilizer at the current quantity/prices? How much of that $.30 cent miss was already offset by decreased natural gas prices?]]> Fri, 03 Oct 2008 18:43:31 -0400
My only concern is that "the market is crazy" is too easy an answer. While I see and agree with the arguments you're making (they're sound) I'd still like to ask questions - it's simply prudent investing.

With decreased crop prices do farmers still have high enough margins to user fertilizer at the current quantity/prices? How much of that $.30 cent miss was already offset by decreased natural gas prices?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98370-the-real-reasons-fertilizer-stocks-are-in-the-dirt?source=feed#comment-272379 272379
i don't think much has been said here that hasn't already. yes the earnings estimate were aggressive on these firms, and yes these firms were undervalued. but this was all true even before the 25% plunge yesterday.. the market is nuts, period

at this valuation it's about time to buy in.. you could wait for another coupla analysts to revise estimates downward but that's really just timing a bottom, and no one can do that perfectly

short term you'll have to stomach volatility but this should be a fine play long term

disclosure: long POT]]> Fri, 03 Oct 2008 04:08:30 -0400
i don't think much has been said here that hasn't already. yes the earnings estimate were aggressive on these firms, and yes these firms were undervalued. but this was all true even before the 25% plunge yesterday.. the market is nuts, period

at this valuation it's about time to buy in.. you could wait for another coupla analysts to revise estimates downward but that's really just timing a bottom, and no one can do that perfectly

short term you'll have to stomach volatility but this should be a fine play long term

disclosure: long POT]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92487-potash-corp-earnings-shouldn-t-peak-until-at-least-2011?source=feed#comment-245110 245110 the question then becomes do we like its valuation? any thoughts on that?]]> Thu, 04 Sep 2008 01:56:01 -0400 the question then becomes do we like its valuation? any thoughts on that?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92879-american-capital-q2-2008-earnings-update?source=feed#comment-240360 240360
As for the depreciation charges they have been taking. Are these just accounting charges or revaluation charges - i.e. did they mark down beacuse FAS said they had due to lower liquidity or whatever, or are their actually expecting their investments to yield less once its exited?

Thanks]]> Wed, 27 Aug 2008 15:42:50 -0400
As for the depreciation charges they have been taking. Are these just accounting charges or revaluation charges - i.e. did they mark down beacuse FAS said they had due to lower liquidity or whatever, or are their actually expecting their investments to yield less once its exited?

Thanks]]>