peachberry_tea

Seven Reasons Why the Coke-Huiyuan Deal Failed

Very insightful piece. Thanks for doing it.

Fundamentals of Potash

Great information - this is the best piece I've read about potash to date. Thanks for the excellent research.

Using Sector Weight Analysis to Identify the Next Bubble

siegel said something very similar about identifying bubbles - look at the market cap of all companies in a sector. if the value of the entire sector is growing too quickly then it's a bubble. agree with author on this much

but to say that energy isn't going to go up because it's close to its "long run average" % of the S&P is suspicious though.. because the weightings of sectors on the S&P/market changes over time.. and if you make the fundamental argument that over the long run the global economy is booming (and 2008 is just a hiccup) then it makes sense that materials and energy sectors will grow relative to the sectors on the S&P.. and therefore if these sectors are to grow then their weighing should also increase above and beyond the "long run average"

Companies I Invest In? Those With a Future

don't agree with pasttense
i honestly don't see how companies like diageo and fortis will cut their dividends

people drink in times like these.. and alberta still needs its electricity

Potash and Agrium Targets Slashed - UBS Analyst

i for one don't blame the analysts for this one
it's easy to unload on them when they're way off
but i think anyone who has actually tried to valuate POT or AGU will realize that the current valuation is just ridulously low.. P/E of 5 for AGU?
yeah most ppl could see the commodity bubble bursting, but i didn't see that kind of P/E coming either
i'm pretty sure i would've laughed if someone told me AGU/POT were gonna have forward PEs of less than 8 way back in June

The Market Hates Mosaic: Phosphates Not Up to Snuff

I understand your frustration... our only consolation is to buy more MOS/AGU/POT etc. and let the market figure this all out. Short term the market can price this crap to hell for all I care.

My only concern is that "the market is crazy" is too easy an answer. While I see and agree with the arguments you're making (they're sound) I'd still like to ask questions - it's simply prudent investing.

With decreased crop prices do farmers still have high enough margins to user fertilizer at the current quantity/prices? How much of that $.30 cent miss was already offset by decreased natural gas prices?

The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt

you've written an informative piece and my hat's off to you for that

i don't think much has been said here that hasn't already. yes the earnings estimate were aggressive on these firms, and yes these firms were undervalued. but this was all true even before the 25% plunge yesterday.. the market is nuts, period

at this valuation it's about time to buy in.. you could wait for another coupla analysts to revise estimates downward but that's really just timing a bottom, and no one can do that perfectly

short term you'll have to stomach volatility but this should be a fine play long term

disclosure: long POT

Potash Corp. Earnings Shouldn't Peak Until at Least 2011

i think we can all agree that the fundamentals for POT is good
the question then becomes do we like its valuation? any thoughts on that?

American Capital Q2 2008 Earnings Update

Does anyone know whether ACAS discloses their scheduled exits are by each quarter/yr? That should give us a fair idea of what ACAS' liquidity should look like and whether they'll be able to support their dividend

As for the depreciation charges they have been taking. Are these just accounting charges or revaluation charges - i.e. did they mark down beacuse FAS said they had due to lower liquidity or whatever, or are their actually expecting their investments to yield less once its exited?

Thanks