peachberry_tea

Fundamentals of Potash

Great information - this is the best piece I've read about potash to date. Thanks for the excellent research.

The Market Hates Mosaic: Phosphates Not Up to Snuff

I understand your frustration... our only consolation is to buy more MOS/AGU/POT etc. and let the market figure this all out. Short term the market can price this crap to hell for all I care.

My only concern is that "the market is crazy" is too easy an answer. While I see and agree with the arguments you're making (they're sound) I'd still like to ask questions - it's simply prudent investing.

With decreased crop prices do farmers still have high enough margins to user fertilizer at the current quantity/prices? How much of that $.30 cent miss was already offset by decreased natural gas prices?

The Real Reasons Fertilizer Stocks Are In the Dirt

you've written an informative piece and my hat's off to you for that

i don't think much has been said here that hasn't already. yes the earnings estimate were aggressive on these firms, and yes these firms were undervalued. but this was all true even before the 25% plunge yesterday.. the market is nuts, period

at this valuation it's about time to buy in.. you could wait for another coupla analysts to revise estimates downward but that's really just timing a bottom, and no one can do that perfectly

short term you'll have to stomach volatility but this should be a fine play long term

disclosure: long POT

Potash Corp. Earnings Shouldn't Peak Until at Least 2011

i think we can all agree that the fundamentals for POT is good
the question then becomes do we like its valuation? any thoughts on that?