sl62

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

There...my point exactly.

CNBC just had an interview with a dealer/owner and she said all her customers ask her about the possible Autos BK. WHY ARE WE STILL WAITING FOR ASSISTANCE!!!! I heard this morning it's because of Chrysler and them being privately held...but c'mon. The math is simple. Every day these idiots wait, Autos are continuing to be hurt by low consumer confidence in the industry. Go through the books AFTER you guarantee some level of assistance! Duh.

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

killer...

Maybe tomorrow you'll get a birthday present from the Street! Wouldn't suck....all the best...

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

3mo. Libor today = 1.871. Lowest it's been in quite a while...

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

cos1000...

Well, this Evercore thing certainly makes things interesting. I've never heard of Debtwire either until now (sub-based)...

www.debtwire.com/publi...

But if true as reported, it's the first incling of ANY KIND we've gotten in this whole mess indicating the company might actually doing some sort of TANGIBLE due diligence beyond the share dilution. As a result, we've been punished on the Wall Street SOP of no news is bad news. It would be pretty incredible if this stock made a squeeze beeline on some 11th hour announcement, wouldn't it? Maybe if it timed with Autos announcement this week? Who knows but as said, I currently have 263M reasons to still be interested. A good part of that still needs to be reconciled. Even redemption of only half creates fireworks.

Yes, this week will be all drama, all the time!

And I totally agree on the MH/SS distraction. WTF! We'll give them 1K, 10K? That's f'd up. You're in or you're out. They're trying to be both.

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

cos1000...

What do you make of that Evercore blurb? First I've heard of it...

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

Let the drama begin (or continue) lol...everyones getting into the act. Witness Business Week.

>>A bigger hurdle for cash-strapped Sirius XM will be refinancing $1 billion in debt that's coming due in 2009, including $210 million in February. In recent weeks the company retained investment bank Evercore Partners (EVR) as a financial advisor to help in the effort, according to Debtwire, a financial news service. Representatives of Evercore and Sirius XM declined to comment on the report.<<

www.businessweek.com/t...

and this..


More Trouble For Sirius: Howard Stern Threatening To Retire (SIRI)
Eric Krangel | December 12, 2008 11:30 AM

As if things couldn't get worse for Sirius XM (SIRI). Now the satellite radio company's biggest star, Howard Stern, is telling his fans he won't re-up his contract.

From the howardstern.com recap of yesterday's show:

IS THE END IN SIGHT?

Howard took a call from someone who asked if Howard planned on re-signing his contract with Sirius when it ends in two years. Howard explained he was pleased to do the best radio of his life, but thought he would be done at the contract's conclusion: "This is my swan song." Howard added that he looked forward to just spending his days with Beth and believed she felt the same way.

www.alleyinsider.com/2...

This Stern bit, IMHO, is why Mel pushed this buyout through on our backs. Just as Sirius Satellite Radio, Howard goes bye bye, so dsoes the company. Now as a combined company, they can lose Howard and survive.

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

relmor...

Hmmmm. I'm a little confused by your post. Dow 6500 next week (outside chance of 5500)??? I don't see it. This thesis could only be supported by some new major catastrophe. I am actually very encouraged the last 10 days of trading by how sentiment has turned positive and bad news seems clearly baked in. Further, we have tested the Oct 10 lows twice now (that's now essentially a tripple bottom). Again, short of a major unheavel somwhere here or around the globe, what would prompt a short trader to believe the 4th time would be the charm and to break through the current bottom at that (as your suggesting)?

Obviously Q4 reports will be dinged a little and could cause continued range-bound volitility but lowered forcasts have already been released. That's what we just went through. Estimates have already been revised lower and stocks punished. I can't see things being that off target. The maket is already looking at Spring, where again, short of more banking or similar catastrophe, we should be out of the woods to your predictions. Not necessarily on a rocket, but out of the woods. Inflation will be a problem if not carefully minded as we get into summer--rates wil have to begin to rise sooner than later. Someone said here that the consumer is dead. The consumer is not dead. I just heard a report yesterday that online sales are on pace to be higher than last year. And I believe it. They say every year that sales will be below last year and then they never are. Banks are not being so quick to lend because they are trying to wait until they see their CDS overleverage will not come back to haunt them. I know that area is generally still a question-mark ...but for now we're holding. If they can get the clearing house up and running for counterparty risk, that will help ease.

Right now there are trillions on the sidelines waiting to come back in to equities. For those managers who have been out now and getting not so much out bonds, they will sooner than later have to recommit...if they don't in the next few months, where are their profits as money managers going to come from? With clients used to 10%, at some point very soon, they are gong to have to capitulate. I think we're starting to see it. Slowly. But as it heats up we should start seeing more up days than down. My guess is they might wait and in January see how the first wave of Q's come in. How can those surprise at this point? If you're a company that hasn't already guided down, wtf, were you waiting for. We've got new leadership next to in--which the market likes and as long as gas stays about $2 for a while, the consumer will hold up...I say the bottom is in (for most of '09 at least). IMHO...

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

imaze...

Unfortuntately I won't be attending the meeting. I would have loved to hear the "crickets" while Mel and Board attempt to justify this SP to the room. Or maybe there will be too much shouting for crickets. No doubt people have questions and will demand answers. Most likely though my guess is Mel will blame the SP and Market Cap on everyone but himself and the Board (aka management). Judging by his ridiculous comments this past week that people need to suck up the channel changes so he/they can still have a company to run (aka a job). That's pretty ruthless and crass right there to say, while he KNOWS people are hurting both from wealth armegeddon and now getting their favorite channels taken away. I actually had a boss like him once. Once.

Imaze, would have been nice to meet in person but in lieu of that, if you do go, I'm sure you'll post your observations. The meeting starts @ 9A so I recommend you get there early as I doubt they will be letting in more than a a few handfuls of non-institutional "commoners." Plenty of big boys will be there looking for answers and will be given priority...and they already said the hall only holds so many. I looked on their website and didn't see that they are webcasting (why am I not surprised!)...so I'll just look for write-ups. My guess is Tyler will be there, if for nothing the media side, and will give us a run-down.

One last thing per your post. If you are looking to short this stock, you will currently be unable to...due to that the SP is non-marginable to your broker. Only stocks $5 or over can be shorted by the general public. Once the reverse happens, with all the debt paydown, I don't expect the stock to be anything over 3.50, so there will be no opportunity there either...sorry to say. Had we all had that chance, we all would have created a short hedge at least when the thing got to $1. But then again, that would be a fair playing field...and joe the plumber (or six pack lol) doesn't get that luxury.

Good luck!

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

mogami_99...

Later. yes, good theater just up ahead...

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

correction...

>>Notice the name of one of the dealers from your link...Confederate Motor Company<<

I meant manuacturers. And apparently they make bikes (kind of interesting machines actually). But the name is interesting in the context of my point...Shelby regardless of his politics and sympathies can still kiss my arse...

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

cos1000...

Thanks. Yeah, no surprise. I have been reading this week more about something I have not seen happening because it's been going under the radar. As you point out Shelby, Alabama, Corker, Tennessee (who just got that new VW plant approved this year), and others in the south have been quietly luring in foreign auto. Clearly this is their attempt at redemption frm losing the Civil War...and though that sounds funny it's real IMO. They're still po'd about that. Notice the name of one of the dealers from your link...Confederate Motor Company. Apparently Shelby and Corker, et al really think "the south's gonna do it again!" F those guys lol!!

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

btw...

I can't wait until Autos gets their rightful financial support from the TARP, thereby making the senate look like a bunch of clowns.

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

cos1000...

Well said...shortly we'll finally get to see what 'ol Mel has up his sleeve! Can't wait. And I've got 263M reasons for hanging on to my tickets lol...which is about all that's left...

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

163888...

It's clauses like this one from the 7/30 424b5 that makes me belive what I do:

>>We may from Time to Time Modify our Business Plan, and these Changes could Adversely Affect us and our Financial Condition.

We regularly evaluate our plans and strategy. These evaluations often result in changes to our plans and strategy, some of which may be material and significantly change our cash requirements. These changes in our plans or strategy may include: the acquisition of unique or compelling programming; the introduction of new features or services; significant new or enhanced distribution arrangements; investments in infrastructure, such as satellites, equipment or radio spectrum; and acquisitions of third parties that own programming, distribution, infrastructure, assets, or any combination of the foregoing.

To fund incremental cash requirements, or as market opportunities arise, we may choose to raise additional funds through the sale of additional debt securities, equity securities or a combination of debt and equity securities. The incurrence of indebtedness would result in increased fiscal obligations and could contain additional restrictive covenants. The sale of additional equity or convertible debt securities would result in dilution to our stockholders. These additional sources of funds may not be available or, if available, may not be available on terms favorable to us.<<

>>The Combined Company’s Business might never Become Profitable.

As of March 31, 2008, on a pro forma basis after giving effect to the merger and the Refinancing Transactions, the combined company would have had an accumulated deficit of approximately $4.5 billion. The combined company expects its cumulative net losses to grow as it makes payments under various contracts, incur marketing and subscriber acquisition costs and make interest payments on its existing debt. If the combined company is unable ultimately to generate sufficient revenues to become profitable, it could default on its commitments and may have to discontinue operations or seek a purchaser for its business or assets.<<

And my point is, if this dilution and reverse are part of their strategy change, or if they deem this is what will keep them out of default, they are well within their rights to do so. These types of clauses are above and beyond and standard boiler plate safe harbor...yet I include them in their cumulative safe harbor protection. I have said before, from my readings, I feel they have left few stones if any unturned legally. Suing them for reasons many including Hartlieb have cited will have a tough time...IMO. In many of their recent 424b5's, they all but tell people that 'you're an idiot if you buy our stock due to the cited risks'...

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

163888...

I'm very interested to see exactly what will happen and we're not far away. Once we're past the meeting, the company will make their intentions known. You could be right but I'm setting up for full dilution while maintaining all cash on hand post reverse and debt reduction. I think Mel's goal is to be able to say to the Street, "look, our SP is 3.50, our '09 debt is gone, we have 19M subs, our CF is positive and we have 500M in cash. You know you want to buy our stock."

I think given this scenario, people actually will want to buy the stock. What would be not to like? And given the trillions that are sitting on the sidelines right now, they may just get quite a few takers.