sl62

HD Radio Inclusion Debate Heats Up

Good article Tyler. This issue is a future mess...and personally I doubt there is a friendly solution here. I think it wil go down to one waiting for the other to "cry uncle" for lack of a better idiom, or be forced through law to capitualte in some manner. Good luck with this one. Airwave TV is essentially merging with "cable" as of Feb. where a "box" will then be required to receive any signal. Does radio need to do the same? Not as long as Mel is in the picture, that I can reasonably say for certain lol.

Btw...SIRI now officially takes the prize for most embattled company of all time. I would use the word unlucky but I just can't bring mysef to do it. SIRI is just tied to everything and anything that is negatve! This latest congressional drama is just priceless. Even if they dole out the 14B now, there will be a whole other mess next year going into a March 31 (or now the f'ing Senate might demand March 15) deadline for consolidation--which of course will also affect SIRI. With the risks involved regarding economic fallout from bankruptcy, it's scary these clowns are willing to roll the dice. We saw what Lehman did...a congressional hand-picked witness testified to cataclysmic ramifications to BK, and yet Shelby and his a-hole buddies are too locked on their own jocks to acknowledge what might be. Why? Because they won't be affected and they lost the Civil War and are probably still pissed about it. lol. Even with a might be, you can't allow BK at this time. Next year at some point fine. Not now. They're going to back the warranties? What The F%ck. As that is part of their thesis and rationale, it shows right there how lost and out of touch these little boys are. I really do hate these clowns.

Auto Sales: Good News on the Horizon?

Well This Might Be Sirius?

The reason the manipulation is not illegal is because it's not...sadly. That might sound simple but very true. In this type of financing, those given the shares to short, may do so at their discretion, anytime. And...all the prospecti SIRI has released has mentioned it, though some in less detail than others. They would have to outlaw the style of financing altogether to make manipulating the stock illegal. In this process with SIRI, I've learned much more than I ever cared about prior, when it comes to convertible financing and its deliterious components. So when it comes to shorting stocks, not only do people have to understand normal shorting and hedging by big money players, but also the same as it may relate to the type of financing the company in which you have invested, has entered into. SIRI made this one very hard on investors because of not only the mountain of paperwork there was to go through post buyout, but also how their financing would or could hurt us/them, and then incurring such a mountain of debt...all an investor nightmare.

One can say live and learn (which is very important too), but I also think every situation with the same financing is going to be slightly different. I have been in another stock for a while that also uses convertible financing and has the same type of short on. They are not now nor should they ever get as low as SIRI has gone. As said before, I think the main reason SIRI has dropped so low is because of their mountain of debt--which has made this descent very easy for those creating it. Further, another thing that strikes me is looking back at the "Mel Years" stock chart decline. Mel has been in bed with GS and MS for years prior to coming to SIRI. I'd have to check again exactly when Mel may have done his first convertible deal with GS (for SIRI), but I want to recall it was somewhere in 2004--when he first joined the company. If that is the case or anywhere in that vicinity, it would be then easier to explain the stock decline we have seen since Mel came to SIRI--and less of the Mel malfeasance angle. It's just something not many paid much attention to. In this case, he still would be responsible in a way for the decline because he agreed to that style of financing but not quite in the premeditated way previously posited by me and others here. That's the bad news. Overall, Convertible financing is a highly volitile form of funding a company, which enriches the bondholders (IB's), gets the company what they want, but can seriously kick shareholders arses. Maybe the best example of legalized stealing in all of the investment world, yet still all very legal according to rules extant...which also makes the day to day manipulation also very legal.

Auto Sales: Good News on the Horizon?

Not sure how relevant this is but just came across it as news...

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Directed Electronics to Exit Satellite Radio Business
PR Newswire
Posted: 2008-11-05 16:15:00

VISTA, Calif., Nov. 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Directed Electronics, an operating unit of DEI Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: DEIX), today announced that it has entered into an agreement with SIRIUS XM Radio outlining key terms for winding down their business together by January 31, 2009, the expiration date of the current distribution agreement.


(Logo: www.newscom.com/cgi-bi...)


Jim Minarik, DEI Holdings' President and CEO stated, "We became the primary retail distribution partner for what was then SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO in 2004, and are proud of the results we have achieved by growing SIRIUS' satellite radio retail share from approximately 20% to over 60% during the past four years. However, based on the large working capital commitment required for this business, as well as a strategic decision on our part to focus on our core security and entertainment businesses, we will not be extending our current agreement with SIRIUS XM when it expires on January 31, 2009. We have enjoyed an excellent partnership with SIRIUS over the past four years and expect to continue working closely with them to ensure the smoothest possible transition to their new distribution partner between now and early 2009."


The agreement specifies that SIRIUS or its new distribution partner will purchase substantially all remaining satellite radio receiver inventory from Directed in the first quarter of 2009 and assume full responsibility for all product returns and warranty costs after January 31, 2009, regardless of when the product was sold.

"While it is never an easy decision to exit any market, there are a number of factors that made exiting the satellite radio business the only logical choice for us. These factors include a dramatic drop in demand for aftermarket satellite radio, increasing warranty returns and decreasing margins that we and our customers have experienced throughout 2007 and 2008 on satellite radio products, and the large working capital commitment required for this relatively low margin business. Exiting this business will allow us to return 100% of our focus in 2009 to improving the experience we deliver to our customers and growing our highly profitable security and entertainment businesses."

Auto Sales: Good News on the Horizon?

Cos1000...

Thanks for the detailed post. good thought...

and yeah...learntt,

Where has Mr. Brandon gone?

Auto Sales: Good News on the Horizon?

bababooie...

I agree. "Autos" I believe is about to go into a prolonged period of stagnation. I hate to say that but just look at what the industry faces. Not only an immediate need to reinvent their inherent business model on a dime, but also attempt to facilitate the paradigm shift (while not simultaneously cutting their own throats by abandoning legacy too soon--and this isn't exactly Beta v. VHS kind of simple). Then there is how long exactly will it take to hit critical mass in that sea change because the new standards haven't even been agreed upon yet. We're not completely nascent at this point but IMO only in stage 1.5 of a 5 stage process. It won't be until we get to about stage 3.5 that the newly emerged, leaner, newly directed industry will be firing with some conviction again. Should be at least a few years before we get to that 3.5. How the new sales numbers will accompany all this is a guess. But it would seem most likely flat to down.

All in all..it was a heck of a time for SIRI to do this leveraged buyout wasn't it??

Auto Sales: Good News on the Horizon?

chizzle,

As Cos1000 says, the dirft is back on--looking at a 2MO chart also confirms the timing of this move lower. There are a few other things in thh mix IMO, which the first is we will have to see how the stock reacts in the .20's this time. The only other time below .30 (just recently), it closed only twice in the .20's then bounced off it's now low of .215 (though it unofficially went slightly lower than that the morning it bounced in limit down conditions). So now here we are again, so we shall see the new behavior. My take is if it spends an extended time in .20's, it might eventually only pop just a little into the lower .30's then head lower into the teens, mid-teens before popping back to .40's. This would be consistent with the LT trend. The wild card now either way is very imminent earnings of course. So, we will have to see . Otherwise, IMO, trend-wise we are in slightly uncharted territory from one perspective. Somewhere about .20 or high teens feels like the next squeeze trigger. Hard to say when it will get there. I think you just have to keep a sharp eye. As Cos1000 does periodically, it can't hurt to put in a bid around .21 or .18 just to be covered in case. Unless earnings are that good to cause such a thing, it won't pop @ .24-.26.

Btw... to make things more confusing, I just saw a possible 11/10 earnings date today. Can't confirm it, just saw it as reported on one portal I use. So we've either got tomorrow or Monday. I'm guessing BMO on either.

Auto Sales: Good News on the Horizon?

Unconfirmed whisper earnings is still tomorrow 11/6. Looking on the SIRI investor page at last Q releases, it seems they stopped giving prior notice starting this Q1--prior to that, they used to give 2 weeks advance notice. So I guess we'll just be surprised when they do release. Which is not really new to the whole scenaro at this point...

Auto Sales: Good News on the Horizon?

Tyler...

I have to comment directly to you and say that this era and beyond will be nothing like any other in history where autos are concerned. So I don't think using stats from the 70's or 80's is reliable. We are in the early stages of an entire paradigm shift so trying to predict where things will go from here is a little like trying to predict the weather IMO. If car-makers in this country are smart they will not relax because oil is back down and therefore keep producing guzzling SUV's and trucks at break-neck paces. The speculators in that space will be back and next time they will drive the price to $200. We need to keep pushing towards next gen cars that don't need as much oil. That seems to benefit SIRI but it could be a slow transition for the next few years because the auto industry as a whole currently has their pants down around their ankles. Not a happy picture.