Old Rick

Goldman Sachs Pays Off Feds and Buffett

Not so fast Kurt! See www.reuters.com/articl...

Goldman Sachs Pays Off Feds and Buffett

I wonder where all the "Buffett is out of touch" posters are on this one. The next BIG payday for WB will be the GE deal.

Is Smart Money Betting on Inflation?

The problem with your analogy Steven is that not many people in 2005 (except for the permabears) were saying that the market would crash in 2008. There are now LOTS of good knowledgeable investors (as opposed to traders) who believe the inflation scenario. Even if it doesn't happen until 2011 (my guess is summer 2010 in time for mid-term elections), doesn't it make sense to start positioning your portfolio for the eventuality?

Berkshire Hathaway Options Trading Could Facilitate Speculative Behavior

>>Brad sez: LOL - Maybe there needs to be Class C shares . . .

Actually, that would exacerbate the problem. I'd go with U338 above who suggested a share buyback. The original purpose of the "killer Bs" was to prevent the syndication of the A shares. Maybe a 1:3 reverse split to put the Bs a bit more out of reach of the financial engineering crowd would be more effective.

BYD: Risky Now, Value Later

If this interests you, there is a great article in a recent issue of Fortune magazine that details Warren's investment in BYD. (online at money.cnn.com/2009/04/...) Apparently BRK wanted to buy a 25% stake, but the CEO would not let go of that much. Buffet sent David Sokol (MidAmerica) to China to look BYD over and he was thoroughly impressed. The story is a good read.

Buffett Gets 'Comeuppance' After Gold Outperforms

On the other hand:

1/22/1980
Gold: $737.50 BRK: $335

6/06/2009
Gold: $954.60 BRK(A): $89,800

All these comments sound very much like those made in 1999 in the pop financial media. Just substitute the word "Gold" for the words "Internet stocks". I'm holding my "Bs" and watching Warren make a bunch of %10 guaranteed plus warrants type investments. These investments WILL double in 7 years (or less depending on warrants). Please list YOUR guaranteed gold price in 2016. in addition, he is adding to his stock holdings at bargain prices.

It Still Feels Like 1975, Buffett's Actions Included

Altaman the magnificent investor sez: "Even a broken clock is right twice a day...."
----------------------...
Gee alta, I wonder which of the 2 (clock) times that Warren was right that he amassed his $40B wealth? This post is typical of the WB critic genre in that it a) attacks WB as being out of touch (as I'm sure alta did in 1999) and b) says smartly; "There are much better places to invest .." with no indication of what those places are. At least RiskReturn had some cogent ideas as opposed to a pure hit piece!

Berkshire Hathaway: Climate Change Impacts Insurers

On Mar 18 11:34 AM weiwentg wrote:

> Under Obama's budget proposal, most of the funds from permit auctions are rebated to consumers through the making work pay tax credit.
----------------------...
So this becomes another tax on the upper middle class and up since they will not get the credit.

The Real Reason Behind Berkshire's Exploding CDS Spreads

A good article until Waltner gets into "it has even been rumored that Mr. Buffett used a particularly toxic form of equity index derivative'. In an otherwise pretty factual article, you introduce "rumor" to partially validate your claims.

Explaining the Berkshire Share Price

Whoops, I went back and reread BS Detector and he covered all my points. sorry to pile on BS. Great job though!!


On Mar 08 02:13 PM Old Rick wrote:

> Hey Paul, In addition to BS detector's GREAT rebuttal you should

Explaining the Berkshire Share Price

Hey Paul, In addition to BS detector's GREAT rebuttal you should note that Buffet's Market index puts are long dated European style puts, that is, not exercisable until the expiration date. Also, I believe the maximum out-of-pocket to BRK is around $30B, less premium, less any appreciation over 10+ years and then, only if the market indices go to zero (low probability event as Charlie and Ajit would "put" it) at expiry.

As far as "underwater", its only underwater on a M2M basis and does not represent and actual out of pocket loss. Also you (and I) have no idea at what level the puts were sold, so (in the words of Ron Reagan) "There ya go again" with your exxagerations.

I hope your other 773 comments had a bit more substance and research behind them than this one!


On Mar 08 07:14 AM paultaut wrote:


as much as much as some predict, he will have to come up with a big part of $60 Billion to cover.

The last I heard, his position is already $10 Billion underwater based on the price of the Puts sold.

....yet Buffet sold Billions worth of puts. Since Options can be exercised at any time, BRK.A has the Potential of suffering big time from this one act, at any time.

This isn't the first time he has strayed. He invested Billions in the Futures markets Betting on the USD's decline a few years back. After Losing Billions he covered.

As far as I'm concerned, those stockmarket Puts are a timebomb waiting
to explode. IMHO

Buffett Endorses 'Mark-to-Market' as a Producer of Ways to Profit

Wow Mark! Shame on Warren Buffett?? really?? If there is an accounting rule (good or bad) that produces significant mispricing of assets and one can do a private valuation of those assets and determine that they are incorrectly priced, buy some of those assets and wait until that SAME accounting rule determines that those assets should be priced much higher, where is the shame?? Do you think that someone should forgo a profit opportunity if his actions are totally above board but YOU (and me for that matter) disagree with the accounting rule? Buffett is merely acting on the world (or market) as it is rather than as you wish it would be.

What Can We Learn from Buffett's Recent Put Sales?

If we can get back to the topic at hand (vice the awesome power of a Trident), what Buffet has done with his put positions is write a VERY large super-cat insurance policy. Roger Knights mentioned the "Black Swan". The puts are really no different than writing a super-cat that would lose tens of billions NEXT YEAR if four CAT 5 hurricanes (a weather "black swan") hit the gulf coast. Not very likely. I see the hand of Ajit Jain in all these puts.

Warren Buffett's 'Secret' Investment Formula

I should have added that the recommendation on "Snowball" is right on. It is the best read of the year. Caution: It is less the story of Bufffet the investor than one of Buffet the man, warts (many) and all!

Warren Buffett's 'Secret' Investment Formula

I find it interesting that someone who quotes a site called "marketguru.com" has so little appreciation of Buffet's historical returns. You ignore Buffet's first tenet and that is disregard the short term "squiggles" of the market. Buffet was also down around 40% in '73-'74, but was (in his own words) buying stocks with both hands and "feeling like an oversexed teenager in a cathouse". While true BRK is down around 40%, the stock will (as it has in every recovery for nearly 50 years) have an upside "beta" or outperformance factor of probably 1.25.

As far as "showing us" an investor who "beated" Buffet in 2008, I would like you to show us an investor who has come anywhere near Buffet for the last 50 years.

You remind me a lot of the guys in 1997-2000 who were saying that "Buffet had lost his touch" and was an "investment has-been". Those guys are now (as the song goes) "parking cars and pumping gas" having lost their collective shirts in 2000-2002.


On Jan 25 06:36 AM ROLEX18K wrote:

> it is stupid, sorry, to call W.Buffett the most successful or best
> investor when BRK.A and BRK.B have same correlation as Dow Jones
> and on the comparisan chart look just the same, all 3 down 40%.
>
> What is smart about it, to lose and win with Dow Jones?
> I same can call and investor or manager of any company who's stock
> is down 40% with the market.
> It is not hard to perform like SP 500 or DJIA in a bull market, crash
> is only time when one can see who is a real winner and on this scale
> Buffett is not.
> If you would call him most rich person on earth, then it is impossible
> to argue, but most successful he is not.
> I want to show you here investor who beated Buffett with wide margin
> in 2008, the most challenging year since 1929.
>
> www.marketguru.com/ROL...
>