Old Rick

Barney Frank: Name Names

I think you can be sure that Barney will profit somehow.


On Nov 04 09:45 PM Steven Hansen wrote:

> what triggered franks change of heart???
>
> follow the money. who will profit???

Don't Let the Headlines Fool You

An even better leading indicator might be average weekly hours worked which fell again last week to around 33 hours. It seems that job losses and unemployment rate almost by definition cannot reverse until weekly hours starts to move up.

Marc Faber: Equities Safer than Dollars

On Sep 29 01:09 PM User 353732 wrote:

> 2. Only certain kinds of equities, I think, are a hedge against dollar
> debasement:
---Companies with global reach and multinational internal supply chains that limit their exposure to the US economy to under 20% of global earnings.
------Companies that own substantial, non-replicable intellectual
property rights which convey major pricing power to offset dollar
declines
-------Companies with leading global brands and unbeatable logistical and distribution capabilities which also convey important pricing power to offset dollar declines
-------Companies with real physical assets ranging from energy to
minerals and metals(including gold, silver, platinum and rare earths) to land to food, water and agri-goods to large world class manufacturing facilities that are direct hedges against dollar debasement: as the dollar goes down the price of their assets increase
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Along these lines, I suggest a read of Peter Schiff's book; "Crash Proof". Peter shows up in these here parts once in a while.

Marc Faber: Equities Safer than Dollars

JD sez:"Next month, the last Bush budget will expire. So aside from the stimulus spending this year, somewhere around $100 billion, all of the deficits accumulated since 1980, around $11 trillion, are from the last three republican presidents.
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The FY09 budget was split in 2 by the Dems last year because they wanted the second half to be an Obama budget. The "last Bush budget" expired in March when the Dems passed a pork-filled, earmark filled second half budget. I'm not sure how the last 3 years have been "Bush budgets" since congress has been Dem since Jan 2007. Beside that, budgets, as passed and implemented, are NOT Presidential budgets, they are Congressional budgets at the end of the day and the Pres, Dem or GOP can only sign or veto. Note that during the, as you say, "last 3 Republican Presidents", the Dems have had Congressional control for all but 6 of those 20 years. Now who did the borrowing and spending? Most of us fiscal conservative Republicans puked at the GWB/GOP Congress budgeting from 02 to 06 and that is a big reason why they lost control, but this Pres and Congress are taking us to entirely new territory "where no man has gone before".

Expecting a Sell-Off: 35 Ways to Protect for Less

Wouldn't the simplest strategy be to purchase slightly in the money puts on SPY or QQQ or (if you feel real lucky) QLD puts for say October09? It eliminates a lot of commissions and note that individual stocks can still go up even if "The Market" declines.

'Green Shoots' Are a Mirage: Economy Will Deteriorate Further

I posted this earlier on the 2008 like 2009 story, but it is appropriate here also. One of my favorite sentiment indicators is the AAII Bull/Bear survey. Here are some numbers that might give some clue to the current state of the market:

Current: Bull 51% Bear 33%
9/25/00 (top) Bull 62% Bear 25%
9/23/02(bot) Bull 24% Bear 47%
10/8/07(top) Bull 54% Bear 25%
3/2/09(bot) Bull 19% Bear 70%

These figures seem to indicate that the mkt is close to a top and/or due for a good correction. YMMV!

2009 Is Looking an Awful Lot Like 2008

To make the bearish case (from here) take a look at the AAII Bull/Bear figures. These have been very reliable contrary indicators in the past.

Current: Bull 51% Bear 33%
9/25/00 (top) Bull 62% Bear 25%
9/23/02(bot) Bull 24% Bear 47%
10/8/07(top) Bull 54% Bear 25%
3/2/09(bot) Bull 19% Bear 70%

These figures seem to indicate that the mkt is close to a top and/or due for a good sized correction.

2009 Is Looking an Awful Lot Like 2008

Don sez: "As I said in previous posts, I do think we will ultimately get some heavy upward resistance if we get to Dow 12,000 or 13,000 in the next year".

I thought this was the Seeking Alpha site! I must have stumbled into the Comedy Club auditions by mistake.

10 Notes on the Current Markets

Sorry to keep posting, but as part of watching the mises link to youtube, I watched the "Peter Schiff was right" video. (www.youtube.com/watch?...). In the course of watching, I saw that Arthur Laffer and Ben Stein (not that they mattered) were also incredibly wrong. Peter Schiff sounded in 06-07 as if he were reading the front page of the WSJ for the last year.

10 Notes on the Current Markets

Further point on #8 and on whoisjohngalt discussion on clunkers: What is happening is the cannibalization of the auto market for the next year or so coupled with the utter waste of the destruction of mostly good and functional cars thereby raising prices in the used market. There was an article on SA about 4-5 days ago concerning the marginal sales increase over what could be the "normal" sales level and attributing the $1B of subsidy to only the marginal increase thus the cost of the program was something like $45K per marginal sale.

10 Notes on the Current Markets

re: #6 Paul Volker?? Not a chance as he is a) too old and b) more importantly to BHO & Co. he is not a lapdog like Ben and Larry and Timmy and ........

'Groundhog Day' for the Markets

Good comments Larry and pay. Also very good article. You may have a subscriber GT. re: pay mint comment, It seems that the hero of the early 80s and the "best investor of all time" have been marginalized, probably by Mr. Summers, in the BHO economic "team"

Fiscal Policy: Obama Administration Isn't Making Much Sense

On Jul 13 01:19 PM montanamark wrote:
> Wake up! Obamas spending plan has little or nothing to do with "stimulus"

In the first place, the stimulus was NOT Obama's stimulus. It was Nancy Pelosi's stimulus (or porkulus). Obama has a well earned disregard for policy detail, and turned the detail writing over to the Nancy and Harry show. It emerged as not a stimulus, but a litany of Democrat pork-barrel stuff including aid to schools (teacher unions) and blue states. The package included provisions that stimulus money spent for real job related projects had to be at "prevailing wage" (ie Union scale). You've got to go with the lowest bidder except for labor where you must go with the highest bidder. A true stimulus (TTT) would have gotten $$ out the door in 6-9 months vice the out year spending (more in 2011-2015 than in 2010) on the Dem priorities. BHO is proving pretty quickly that he talks a good game ("as I have always said (starting this morning).....) but can't close the deal.

Is the Employment Picture Really Better Now than in 1933?

redbaron sez: "I was gainfully employed for 31 years, and was a member of the working class until 1996, when at the age of 54 my long time employer decided that I was no longer needed, and could legally downsize me without repurcussions. That event changed me forever, and my political attitude was adjusted to the left, from slightly to the right of center."
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So Red, because you got complacent in your work environment, did not keep up or improve your job skills, did not adapt to the emerging work environment of the late 90s, did not keep your ear to the ground to figure out what was coming, and then felt that the "Gummint" ought to protect your "right to a paycheck", you became a leftist? I'm the same age as you "red" and had a completely different experience. You seem typical of those who don't/didn't want to work too hard, but keep that paycheck coming in and when it stops, whine to the Government about "those terrible capitalists who lay off outdated 54 year-olds". By the way the article was pretty decent although it trys to compare an apple (for sale on the street corner by Red) to a radish.

Old_Rick, Age 67

The U.S. Is Spending Its Way Out of the Recession

How much of the current spending binge the Gummint is on will be reduced during the next recovery? The short answer is NONE!!! This means that the buck goes to hell, inflation reignites and our kids and grandkids are gonna get tax rates that are very European to try (unsuccessfully) to make a dent in the decficit/debt. Couple that with the Chinese refusing to make more "investments" in our paper and the future does not look good over the next 10-15 years. Japan is now on 19 years. Who will be America's John Galt? We all now who Mr. Thompson and Wesley Mouch are!