Market recap: Stocks clawed back from early losses but still finished lower, as all three major averages closed their worst month in two years. Stocks, weighed by a raft of weak U.S. economic data (I, II, III) that sent Treasury yields to new record lows, bounced after a story (later clarified) suggesting the IMF is working on a “rescue loan” for Spain. NYSE decliners led gainers seven to six. [View news story]
Gentlemen:
Let's not forget June 17, The Greek election. Also, note that the TNX closed today at 15.81, the second all-time low yield in two days.
COT Report: Small Speculators Most Bearish Since March Bottom [View article]
You need to be more specific. Small speculators in what? If the S&P 500, in the Dec. 15 report, small traders were long 162,961 contracts, and short 67,421 contracts. That has been the case since the March 3 report when the the small traders were long 167,738 contracts and short 54,485 contracts. If you are referencing the E-Mini, you're right. BUT, the Large Speculators in the S&P 500 went net short as of the June 23, 2009 report, and have been net short ever since.
New Lows in Pessimism Could Signal a Top [View article]
I.I. shows Bulls, Neutral, i.e. expecting 'only' a 10% correction, and Bears. So, with 16.7% bears, and 33% neutral, that leaves 50.3% bulls. Jim Stack combines bulls and neutral to get the real bullish percentage. I believe he would call today's numbers 83.3% bulls. That is a very high percentage.
On Dec 02 04:49 PM enigmaman wrote:
> investor newsletters have historically always been wrong, so if they > are bullish that is bearish for sure, not sure where you get that > investors are increasingly confident, Im not reading that nor does > the volume back you up, 1/3 expect a correction of 10%+ what about > the other 66% do they expect new highs or new lows, 1/3 the equation > is of little use. So in the end, after all your analysis its expected > that those who are bearish will jump on board to push the market > to new highs and then force the correction that they have expected, > I assume its the dumb money sitting on the sidelines your waiting > for, well I have bad and good news, the bad news, If your waiting > for the dumb money to get on board you will have to wait a very long > time, so forget about capitulation, the good news is in the mean > time the market should continue to rally to higher highs with no > end in sight so make sure your 100% in and if your able margin up > to the max because its blue skies for as far as the eye can see.
Mexico's Declining Oil Production: Clarion Call for Cantarell [View article]
FYI...the Mexican Government derives about 40% of its operating income from Pemex. The government can't support its people now. Consider Mexico without oil.
Investment Opportunities Created by an Obama Presidency [View article]
Pelosi will reestablish the off-shore drilling ban as soon as Congress returns. That will reduce the potential oil supply. Opec meets on 11-29 to cut production again. Bet on oil, especially Canadian oil as the U.S. Dollar is over-bought.
Market recap: Stocks clawed back from early losses but still finished lower, as all three major averages closed their worst month in two years. Stocks, weighed by a raft of weak U.S. economic data (I, II, III) that sent Treasury yields to new record lows, bounced after a story (later clarified) suggesting the IMF is working on a “rescue loan” for Spain. NYSE decliners led gainers seven to six. [View news story]
Let's not forget June 17, The Greek election. Also, note that the TNX closed today at 15.81, the second all-time low yield in two days.
The bond market is heading for the bomb shelter.
COT Report: Small Speculators Most Bearish Since March Bottom [View article]
New Lows in Pessimism Could Signal a Top [View article]
On Dec 02 04:49 PM enigmaman wrote:
> investor newsletters have historically always been wrong, so if they
> are bullish that is bearish for sure, not sure where you get that
> investors are increasingly confident, Im not reading that nor does
> the volume back you up, 1/3 expect a correction of 10%+ what about
> the other 66% do they expect new highs or new lows, 1/3 the equation
> is of little use. So in the end, after all your analysis its expected
> that those who are bearish will jump on board to push the market
> to new highs and then force the correction that they have expected,
> I assume its the dumb money sitting on the sidelines your waiting
> for, well I have bad and good news, the bad news, If your waiting
> for the dumb money to get on board you will have to wait a very long
> time, so forget about capitulation, the good news is in the mean
> time the market should continue to rally to higher highs with no
> end in sight so make sure your 100% in and if your able margin up
> to the max because its blue skies for as far as the eye can see.
Pay to Play: Lessons for Calpers [View article]
Is the P/E Ratio Now Meaningless? [View article]
Mexico's Declining Oil Production: Clarion Call for Cantarell [View article]
Book Review: Great Depression Ahead [View article]
Investment Opportunities Created by an Obama Presidency [View article]
Bet on oil, especially Canadian oil as the U.S. Dollar is over-bought.
Case-Shiller Shows More Record Home Price Declines in August [View article]