I'm Not Jim Cramer

Electric Car Manufacturers Inspire New Paradigms

A niche product for a niche market.

GM Restructuring Spells Sirius Gain

Brandon, here's and interesting question that I hope you will answer honestly, even though you disagree with me. If we take away all the auto subscriptions and equipment received by customers involuntarily, would this company have folded years ago, and/or would it be viewed as a viable enterprise today? Puttting it simply, if you had to actually BUY the product, rather than receive it, would the subscriber numbers reflect anything remotely close to a sustainable business model?

GM Restructuring Spells Sirius Gain

Cos, why the vitriol? lol Can't imagine that I have the ability to destroy satrad, but thanks for the compliment. A couple of points. Sirius will not be a stand alone company within two years, because John Malone did not buy 40% of the company because he couldn't get a better rate on a CD. Malone is going to effect a takeover whenever it is propitious for him to do so. Look up his history. He's not a passive investor.

Exactly what have I been wrong about? I have been posting for maybe 1-2 years now and most of things I have written about have come true:

1) Sirius is beginning to see the future as a content provider, not a hardware company, as I predicted.

2) They're trying to become a player through cell phones and the internet, because wi-fi, and wireless will make satellites obsolete for distribution of content, as I predicted.

3) Also as I predicted MLB is leading the sports pack by offering direct competition to satrad by distribution of their content through cell phone apps because it is not barred by their contract with Sirius. I specifically told you that major league sports will not stay with satrad past the point in time that they become more effective distributers of their own content through cell phone and internet.

Finally Sirius loses money EVERYWHERE, but on Howard's contract. Why is losing money on GM different than losing it on Oprah or on inefficient distribution of portable receivers, or non-existent advertising?

Here's where we differ cos. You look upon sirius as an "experience". I look at it as a business, one that has NEVER been profitable, (not even cash flow positive, not ever EBITDA profitable) and seems to have no business plan that can get them there. In spite of your words about the music, the overwhelming majority of satrad listeners who actually voluntarily get a subscription (as opposed to receiving it in their first year of car ownership) are white males over the age of 30, and who usually got and/or keep their subscription for Howard or sports, and not the music. That has always been their base, and they have made no inroads among women or young people.

Poll any teenagers you meet and most have never heard of the product unless their parents use it in the car. They don't own or carry the portable receivers, they don't listen through their cell phones. I work on a job where 20 somethings is the largest age group. The only ones who have satrad, have it in their cars through OEM. I have asked.

Finally Brandon, how successful can a company be ( as an investment, not an experience) when you write a column saying that it's GOOD news that one of their biggest distributors is going to distribute less of their product this year! The only comparable argument I can make is if Countrywide Financial had come out before the takeover and said that they were moving less sub-prime mortgages than before.

Really gentlemen, Sirius is a great trade, and if you act quickly a real money maker, but just don't stay in the game because of a mistaken belief that this will be a $20 stock in two years.

GM Restructuring Spells Sirius Gain

Brandon: Scratching my head over this one. Do you believe that other manufacturers have deals that are more advantageous to Sirius than the GM one? Otherwise, why would a renegotiated deal with GM be to Sirius gain? Doubtful that having or not having a satrad pre-installed is a deal breaker when buying a car, so how could Sirius negotiate from a position of strength when any "new" GM will try to cut costs in any way possible? Can't see that GM would be willing to give up MORE of the pie to Sirius, and who would lose more from a termination of the relationship? Not GM, because they won't sell any more or less cars because of satrad; but loss of a contract on GM vehicles, even at the estimated lower market share of 15-18%, would be devatating for Sirius. I dunno. I must have missed your point somewhere!

Electric Vehicles Gain Traction in the Bay Area

The Asian EV's do not have to deal with our safety rules for cars. Additionally, commercial and even workload pickup trucks and busses cannot run on batteries. How inefficient would it be to have to have two functioning systems, oil and electric?

With regard to temepratures, we are probably only talking about 15-30 days a year where temperature will seriously affect battery performance, but how do you sell a car like that. What will happen to a car that sits in 20 degree weather in a parking lot for 8 or 10 hours while the owner is at work? How will the charge be affected? Here's one study:

"Research by General Motors (Ellis, 1994) indicated that the range of their prototype EV, the Impact, was 19 kilometers in cold weather. In other words, the car loses over 80% of its nominal 21\mDC range when operated at -18\mDC."

William Holstein on Why GM Matters

Mike123: Stop reading from an Epcot Center press release, circa 1965. Really, you're killing me with this stuff!

William Holstein on Why GM Matters

FINALLY, somebody almost got it right. Why treat all three companies the same? Chrysler is done! Put a bullet in it's head and finish the job. Don't try to merge one failing auto company with another. Close it down tomorrow. Stop talking about the Priius as if it's something GM missed out on. Toyota LOSES money on every Prius that goes out the door. It's a backassward technology without any future. The time has not arrived for an electric vehicle. GM will lose it's shirt if it needs to sell the VOLT as it's primary vehicle. The electric car is a niche player, and always will be. What do you think a MInnesota or Wisconsin winter will do to the charge of an electric vehicle? How green is it to make all these electric vehicles that will require us to burn millions MORE tons of coal for electricity, and dispose of millions of batteries? Whatever the future of the mass market auto, the electric car is not it.

Electric Vehicles Gain Traction in the Bay Area

A niche vehicle for a niche market like San Francisco. What do you think that a MInnesota winter would do to the charge of an electric vehicle battery? Great idea bringing to market a car that will cost 15-20% more than a gas powered vehicle, just a people are losing their jobs and the banks won't lend. I'm sure also that the government will be happy to "lend" the big three car makers the money to retool to build these vehicles, because nothing says government like mandating bankrupt companies to build cars that people don't want to buy!

Even if overnight we could give everyone these "polultion free" vehicles, we would have to burns millions more tons of coal to create the electricity to power them and create millions more toxic batteries that need to be disposed of. Whatever the future of mass individual transportation is in this country, the electric car is almost certainly not it!

Satellite Radio Is Not Immune to Big Three Troubles

Went shopping in several stores today. Very little satrad product on the shelves, no endcaps, no large displays of any kind, selling at about 20% off, cars no moving either because of the financing problems. Expect a hugely bad 4th quarter. For all you "finally going to be cash flow positive guys" no way no how! Mel is sandbagging us on the numbers. They're going to be much worse than even the lowball figure.