I'm Not Jim Cramer

Microsoft Should Take Music Siriusly

Here's a link to a short piece about this 15 year old who wrote a report that has adults buzzing. Here's how it relates to sirius. He discusses how teenagers hate to pay for music. I have brought this up numerous times, that sirius has absolutely no "in" with the upcoming generation, and is virtually unknown in their world.

tech.yahoo.com/blogs/p...

Microsoft isn't going to buy sirius, It's not the way they do business. If they bought yahoo they would not only get the search business, but yahoo's interest in Rhapsody as well which streams online music. Tha would make much morre sense for them.

This proposal brings up the main reason why I could never be a long term investor in sirius. Their technology has been superceded by the internet, and so there is no barrier to entry into their business. They do have big name content locked up temporarily, but as for the music, anybody can become their competitor through the internet.

What this means to me is that sirius can never make a profit, as they never have. It's like the landscaping business in that you never have control over your prices because competition is too fierce. Lots of people bring up this or that idea to add millions of subscriptions, but overlook the fact that sirius does not make money on their subscription rate right now. In order for them to survive, they would have to not only raise the subscription price right now, but also in anticipation of paying more to keep their exclusive content like Howard and major league sports, as those contracts become due. Combine those increases, with the capital costs for satelllites which their competitors don't have, and of course the huge interest payments, and I just don't see any reasonable path to profitability.

Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?

Confession/Explanation Time: I am actually LONG Sirius, but I shouldn't be. My price is $2.20 so I should have been out a long time ago. Normally my rule is 15% down, on a stock unless I bought puts to cover, but there's always that one stock that you think will break the rules. That's almost always the stock that gets you in trouble. So the reason I'm down is that in this case; I'm a dumbass! It's not Mel's fault. It's not Goldman's fault. It's not naked short sellers fault, or the economy, or mysterious manipulators, or the FCC. It's MY fault. I didn't give enough thought to the future of wireless internet (yes, I know you all disagree), and even worse, I didn't take my profit when I was up. So there you have it. I will average down, but it's not investing. It's just a shorter trip to the computer than to the roulette wheel at the nearest casino to bet red or black. lol

Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?

sl62 maybe us short fat bald guys stick together. lol

Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?

sl62, sorry to disagree with you, but people who are successful in their investments make money going up and down. If you want a religion, stocks are not it.

Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?

Real deal, for all you know about this stock why don't you tell us what your bought price is? If it's higher than $1.20 or so, why didn't you, with all your knowledge of this stock, sell earlier so you could buy in at .77?

Sirius XM On the Rise - Does Microsoft Want a Piece?

Firing the auditors? Uh Oh! It may be perfectly innocent and normal course of business, but once again BAD TIMING! It's just like when a company loses it's CFO in bad times. Nobody ever believes the usual "to spend more time with my family" reason. Mel's committing hara kiri again.