history repeats's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/253147/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/174085-how-the-aig-bailout-scuttles-the-chance-for-a-second-stimulus?source=feed#comment-768753 768753 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:24:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/172789-pfizer-s-chemistry-head-count-lower-than-before-the-wyeth-merger?source=feed#comment-758000 758000 Thu, 12 Nov 2009 20:44:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/168545-motorola-droid-a-promising-iphone-challenger?source=feed#comment-730475 730475 UI). the limited availability of software has been a negative - not to me personally, but to many. the beautiful thing about the iPhone is that Apple moved into a space where the existing UI was even more horrible than Windows, AND they now have more, not less, software (apps) than the competition. as phones evolve into mini-laptops, with the UI even more critical with a tiny screen, nothing is going to challenge the iPhone without challenging Apple's superior UI. it will be interesting to see if Google has the creativity to do that - microsoft surely cannot.

iPhone users will not switch to droid. however, the rate of migration to the iPhone will slow if droid is good. a lot of VZ customers think about switching to get an iPhone. droid might keep them from doing that.]]> Mon, 26 Oct 2009 09:24:20 -0400 UI). the limited availability of software has been a negative - not to me personally, but to many. the beautiful thing about the iPhone is that Apple moved into a space where the existing UI was even more horrible than Windows, AND they now have more, not less, software (apps) than the competition. as phones evolve into mini-laptops, with the UI even more critical with a tiny screen, nothing is going to challenge the iPhone without challenging Apple's superior UI. it will be interesting to see if Google has the creativity to do that - microsoft surely cannot.

iPhone users will not switch to droid. however, the rate of migration to the iPhone will slow if droid is good. a lot of VZ customers think about switching to get an iPhone. droid might keep them from doing that.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167759-how-the-copenhagen-climate-treaty-will-affect-equity-markets?source=feed#comment-723337 723337
anyway, i love international bonds.]]> Wed, 21 Oct 2009 09:40:29 -0400
anyway, i love international bonds.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/407380-jeff-nielson/30876-u-s-government-squanders-trust-funds?source=feed#comment-709675 709675
" The reason why that fund had such a large surplus (past tense) is that for more than 50 years the U.S. government has known there would be massive draw-downs on that fund when the baby-boomers retire."

sometimes this is discussed as if the looming boomer retirements were a recently discovered surprise!! in fact, as you say, we "fixed" SS in the 80s and the working and middle class HAVE ALREADY PAID FOR IT.

now consider that the tax cuts for the wealthy would not have been possible without the gvt having the revenues from the trust funds. so, the middle class has paid for tax cuts for the wealthy. talk about class warfare!]]> Thu, 08 Oct 2009 20:56:13 -0400
" The reason why that fund had such a large surplus (past tense) is that for more than 50 years the U.S. government has known there would be massive draw-downs on that fund when the baby-boomers retire."

sometimes this is discussed as if the looming boomer retirements were a recently discovered surprise!! in fact, as you say, we "fixed" SS in the 80s and the working and middle class HAVE ALREADY PAID FOR IT.

now consider that the tax cuts for the wealthy would not have been possible without the gvt having the revenues from the trust funds. so, the middle class has paid for tax cuts for the wealthy. talk about class warfare!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163553-welcome-to-the-new-normal?source=feed#comment-693816 693816
i'll never understand the anti-tax rhetoric. we are in a historically low tax environment. the middle class has been far better off in post-WW2 high-tax periods than in recent years. any apparent prosperity since 1980 is imo the prosperity of a homeless junky with a credit card.

the debt binge has been fueled by the SS payroll tax. soon the right will claim that honoring the SS bonds is "unsustainable". insofar as spending the SS tax made tax cuts at the top possible, any reneging on the SS bonds amounts to theft by the wealthy from average Americans.

trying to fire up the debt engine again will just put our children deeper in the hole. ]]> Mon, 28 Sep 2009 08:44:27 -0400
i'll never understand the anti-tax rhetoric. we are in a historically low tax environment. the middle class has been far better off in post-WW2 high-tax periods than in recent years. any apparent prosperity since 1980 is imo the prosperity of a homeless junky with a credit card.

the debt binge has been fueled by the SS payroll tax. soon the right will claim that honoring the SS bonds is "unsustainable". insofar as spending the SS tax made tax cuts at the top possible, any reneging on the SS bonds amounts to theft by the wealthy from average Americans.

trying to fire up the debt engine again will just put our children deeper in the hole. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161486-a-moment-of-minsky-redux?source=feed#comment-677395 677395
that is exactly right. and i'm afraid that, whenever times are good, there's no way to avoid removing the constraints.

i don't know enough about dueling economists to know who said what, but it's obvious that weakly-regulated capitalism is unstable. if some models show the contrary, that's just "garbage in, garbage out".]]> Tue, 15 Sep 2009 10:59:27 -0400
that is exactly right. and i'm afraid that, whenever times are good, there's no way to avoid removing the constraints.

i don't know enough about dueling economists to know who said what, but it's obvious that weakly-regulated capitalism is unstable. if some models show the contrary, that's just "garbage in, garbage out".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/159443-pimco-continues-its-campaign-for-the-new-normal?source=feed#comment-658173 658173

> In recent past we had science to help us out........Bell Labs, RCA,
> Xerox PARC, DARPA, and NASA......and from this we gave birth to a
> suite of industries including the PC, Internet, Internet infrastructure
> and cellular industries, all born in the 1980's and 1990's.
>
> Some of these institutions, though are gone and the remaining ones
> have gutted. Without new industry, I'm pretty much resigned to us
> taking the path of least resistance by continuing uncontrolled fiscal
> spending, implementing politically acceptable tax increases and borrowing
> until the costs and consequences are so high that the process implodes.
>
>
> At that point we may be reduced to going to the IMF and imploring
> them for funding, only to be told we have to right our fiscal house.

Bell Labs, DARPA and NASA have been huge factors in our prosperity. Since Bell was supported by the AT&T monopoly and the other 2 are gvt agencies, their scientists were able to innovate without beancounters looking over their shoulder.

We still have an amazing partnership of gvt-supported basic research with the corporate sector in the biotech area. typically university scientists supported by NIH, NCI, NSF etc develop new technology and license it to biotech startups, which then make deals with larger companies.

i expect a declining standard of living in the USA during the "new normal", but one thing working in our favor will be biotech, unless some ideological fanatic gets in power and decides that gvt shouldn't support basic research.

i always listen to bill gross, even if he does have his own interests.]]> Wed, 02 Sep 2009 10:12:57 -0400

> In recent past we had science to help us out........Bell Labs, RCA,
> Xerox PARC, DARPA, and NASA......and from this we gave birth to a
> suite of industries including the PC, Internet, Internet infrastructure
> and cellular industries, all born in the 1980's and 1990's.
>
> Some of these institutions, though are gone and the remaining ones
> have gutted. Without new industry, I'm pretty much resigned to us
> taking the path of least resistance by continuing uncontrolled fiscal
> spending, implementing politically acceptable tax increases and borrowing
> until the costs and consequences are so high that the process implodes.
>
>
> At that point we may be reduced to going to the IMF and imploring
> them for funding, only to be told we have to right our fiscal house.

Bell Labs, DARPA and NASA have been huge factors in our prosperity. Since Bell was supported by the AT&T monopoly and the other 2 are gvt agencies, their scientists were able to innovate without beancounters looking over their shoulder.

We still have an amazing partnership of gvt-supported basic research with the corporate sector in the biotech area. typically university scientists supported by NIH, NCI, NSF etc develop new technology and license it to biotech startups, which then make deals with larger companies.

i expect a declining standard of living in the USA during the "new normal", but one thing working in our favor will be biotech, unless some ideological fanatic gets in power and decides that gvt shouldn't support basic research.

i always listen to bill gross, even if he does have his own interests.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158173-4-dividend-stocks-to-hedge-against-social-security-failure?source=feed#comment-647799 647799

On Aug 26 02:34 AM RatWatcher wrote:


> Sorry, no. The SS Trust Fund is nothing more than a US Gov IOU in
> the US Gov's own pocket. This is neither savings nor debt; it is
> an unfunded promise to make future payments, but the expected payment recipient has no legal right to the funds.

ah, the genius of the far right - the US Gvt can honor IOUs to every gvt in the world, but is free to default on American retirees. I REALLY hope some future wingnut president actually tries this, as then we can finally rid the USA of the curse of "reaganomics".]]> Wed, 26 Aug 2009 15:41:12 -0400

On Aug 26 02:34 AM RatWatcher wrote:


> Sorry, no. The SS Trust Fund is nothing more than a US Gov IOU in
> the US Gov's own pocket. This is neither savings nor debt; it is
> an unfunded promise to make future payments, but the expected payment recipient has no legal right to the funds.

ah, the genius of the far right - the US Gvt can honor IOUs to every gvt in the world, but is free to default on American retirees. I REALLY hope some future wingnut president actually tries this, as then we can finally rid the USA of the curse of "reaganomics".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150276-no-surprise-apple-beats-for-q3-jobs-thrilled-over-iphone-sales?source=feed#comment-597394 597394

On Jul 21 06:41 PM JW.PhD wrote:

> "No surprise" to those of us who've been shareholders and users of
> their products for years.
>
> Apple just continues to impress.]]> Tue, 21 Jul 2009 21:17:24 -0400

On Jul 21 06:41 PM JW.PhD wrote:

> "No surprise" to those of us who've been shareholders and users of
> their products for years.
>
> Apple just continues to impress.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/146752-employment-numbers-uniformly-horrible?source=feed#comment-573287 573287

On Jul 02 06:51 PM billddrummer wrote:

> To socialism cannot compete!
>
> You seem to think that we're not moving inexorably toward a socialistic
> style of life now. And if your moniker is accurate, socialism won't
> be able to compete with the Chinas, Indias and Eurozones of the world.
>
>
> Protectionism increases costs for all traders, discourages international
> cooperation, fosters discord among trading partners, promotes retailiatory
> trade barriers from other nations, and results in a lower standard
> of living for everyone.
>
> Why some think this is a good idea eludes me.]]> Fri, 03 Jul 2009 13:08:31 -0400

On Jul 02 06:51 PM billddrummer wrote:

> To socialism cannot compete!
>
> You seem to think that we're not moving inexorably toward a socialistic
> style of life now. And if your moniker is accurate, socialism won't
> be able to compete with the Chinas, Indias and Eurozones of the world.
>
>
> Protectionism increases costs for all traders, discourages international
> cooperation, fosters discord among trading partners, promotes retailiatory
> trade barriers from other nations, and results in a lower standard
> of living for everyone.
>
> Why some think this is a good idea eludes me.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/145302-boeing-s-misstep-is-indicative-of-broader-misconceptions-of-risk?source=feed#comment-562536 562536
the relevant point is that every simulation is based on an approximate model. even if one could simulate every atom in boeing's airplane, it would be necessary to use approximations for the forces between the atoms. the actual simulations are of course not atomistic and rely on approximate laws of material properties. while "linear" laws for small stresses and strains are well known, nonlinear behavior is poorly understood. the simulation can't be better than the underlying model. this is a longwinded way to say the 1'st commandment of simulation, "garbage in, garbage out".

most simulators i know are acutely aware of the limits of their model. others, especially those who had nothing to do with making up the model but were handed a canned program to run, can fall into the trap of taking it much more seriously than is warranted.]]> Thu, 25 Jun 2009 15:05:51 -0400
the relevant point is that every simulation is based on an approximate model. even if one could simulate every atom in boeing's airplane, it would be necessary to use approximations for the forces between the atoms. the actual simulations are of course not atomistic and rely on approximate laws of material properties. while "linear" laws for small stresses and strains are well known, nonlinear behavior is poorly understood. the simulation can't be better than the underlying model. this is a longwinded way to say the 1'st commandment of simulation, "garbage in, garbage out".

most simulators i know are acutely aware of the limits of their model. others, especially those who had nothing to do with making up the model but were handed a canned program to run, can fall into the trap of taking it much more seriously than is warranted.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144276-reverse-converts-and-vince-fernando-s-straw-man?source=feed#comment-554235 554235
meanwhile, "advanta" is advertizing high-yield instruments which i think are straight junk bonds! you can never let your guard down...]]> Fri, 19 Jun 2009 15:24:23 -0400
meanwhile, "advanta" is advertizing high-yield instruments which i think are straight junk bonds! you can never let your guard down...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122153-john-hussman-we-need-government-coordination-not-money?source=feed#comment-400755 400755
I'm not sure if I have this right, but I think he has suggested something like, instead of giving the struggling mtg holders a freebie writedown, have them give the gvt a share in any property appreciation. That's the best win-win idea I've heard....tom]]> Mon, 23 Feb 2009 20:50:05 -0500
I'm not sure if I have this right, but I think he has suggested something like, instead of giving the struggling mtg holders a freebie writedown, have them give the gvt a share in any property appreciation. That's the best win-win idea I've heard....tom]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95083-could-lehman-s-failure-cause-a-systemic-meltdown?source=feed#comment-252162 252162 Thu, 11 Sep 2008 20:31:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94797-u-s-treasury-to-make-open-market-mbs-purchases?source=feed#comment-250181 250181
the gvt screwed up big time all right - by buying into the voodoo economics of 'regulation is bad'. any common sense regulatory action would have reined in the insane behavior of the bankers long ago.]]> Wed, 10 Sep 2008 08:20:18 -0400
the gvt screwed up big time all right - by buying into the voodoo economics of 'regulation is bad'. any common sense regulatory action would have reined in the insane behavior of the bankers long ago.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94188-freddie-fannie-plans-in-motion-why-are-they-being-underplayed?source=feed#comment-247124 247124
there is nothing wrong with reasonable gvt regulation that can nip insanity in the bud. we put that in place following the first great depression and it didn't stop the great expansion of the middle class in the 50s and 60s.]]> Sat, 06 Sep 2008 17:42:54 -0400
there is nothing wrong with reasonable gvt regulation that can nip insanity in the bud. we put that in place following the first great depression and it didn't stop the great expansion of the middle class in the 50s and 60s.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94188-freddie-fannie-plans-in-motion-why-are-they-being-underplayed?source=feed#comment-246820 246820 Sat, 06 Sep 2008 09:07:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93340-energy-firms-should-look-to-u-s-shale-barron-s?source=feed#comment-242705 242705
the way to solve our problems is a national policy to keep the oil price high in the USA. in 1980 we had every discussion we are having now, and as soon as the oil price dropped there was no incentive to do anything but import it and burn it. all you have to do is look at the initiative that kicked in when oil went over $100 this time and imagine if that had continued for 28 years.]]> Sun, 31 Aug 2008 14:55:54 -0400
the way to solve our problems is a national policy to keep the oil price high in the USA. in 1980 we had every discussion we are having now, and as soon as the oil price dropped there was no incentive to do anything but import it and burn it. all you have to do is look at the initiative that kicked in when oil went over $100 this time and imagine if that had continued for 28 years.]]>