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Boeing's Misstep Is Indicative of Broader Misconceptions of Risk

computer simulation is not limited to "known data". models with very simple rules can yield very complex, surprising, unknown outcomes.

the relevant point is that every simulation is based on an approximate model. even if one could simulate every atom in boeing's airplane, it would be necessary to use approximations for the forces between the atoms. the actual simulations are of course not atomistic and rely on approximate laws of material properties. while "linear" laws for small stresses and strains are well known, nonlinear behavior is poorly understood. the simulation can't be better than the underlying model. this is a longwinded way to say the 1'st commandment of simulation, "garbage in, garbage out".

most simulators i know are acutely aware of the limits of their model. others, especially those who had nothing to do with making up the model but were handed a canned program to run, can fall into the trap of taking it much more seriously than is warranted.