$HARK&PAUL

Natural Gas Is Oversold, and We Are Buying

This guy is going to lose money,but don't worry,it is not his money are at stake but stupid investors',his he keeps in CD's,mortgage,underwea...

I have read 30-40 words of it,maybe you are right but I am sure you never traded a single NatGas futures contract as otherwise you would not have time researching it,you would be broke as even at 10-13.50$ NG looked cheap compared to Oil.
The real trade have nothing to do with any kind of spread/discount just ask Amaranth Advisors how they lost 13$ billion trading NG with most complicated algorythmic software,ask T Boone Pickens if he is bullish on NG now,he will punch you i the face and send you one way to hell,ask Sem Group LP that lost more than 10$ billion on Oil/NatGas futures and options plus OTC (I hate otc) if they are bullish on CL/NG they will through you out of the window of their skyscraper office.
Bottom line reality check:
NG is really cheap if one believes Oil at 115$ is cheap,NG is expensive if one believes Oil is heading for 100,90,85,70,65,55? next year.
You decide what is cheap what is expensive,I sold NG October at 8.10$ and sold put 8.00$ October against it for total profit I can make in 30 days 7600$.I did it on the news Gustav is going to crash all the platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and beyond it.
Maybe I am crazy,maybe not,time will show.

Spreading Oil and Natural Gas: A Post-Labor Day Plan

I have read 30-40 words of it,maybe you are right but I am sure you never traded a single NatGas futures contract as otherwise you would not have time researching it,you would be broke as even at 10-13.50$ NG looked cheap compared to Oil.
The real trade have nothing to do with any kind of spread/discount just ask Amaranth Advisors how they lost 13$ billion trading NG with most complicated algorythmic software,ask T Boone Pickens if he is bullish on NG now,he will punch you i the face and send you one way to hell,ask Sem Group LP that lost more than 10$ billion on Oil/NatGas futures and options plus OTC (I hate otc) if they are bullish on CL/NG they will through you out of the window of their skyscraper office.
Bottom line reality check:
NG is really cheap if one believes Oil at 115$ is cheap,NG is expensive if one believes Oil is heading for 100,90,85,70,65,55? next year.
You decide what is cheap what is expensive,I sold NG October at 8.10$ and sold put 8.00$ October against it for total profit I can make in 30 days 7600$.I did it on the news Gustav is going to crash all the platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and beyond it.
Maybe I am crazy,maybe not,time will show.

Ominous for the Globe but Good News for Oil Bulls

I sold NatGas for October on Friday at 8.10$ it closet 7.94$ 1600$ profit and the world is crashing,Gustav floods everything on it's way,pikers are buying Oil/Gas futures as they think it is easy to make money on the news.Bear entered the NYMEX pit at 145$ and said,enough is enough,since then blood is flooding the long investors.Investors like T Boone Pickens lost billions on Nat Gas,Sem Group LP went bankrupt with losses more than 10 billions,hedge funds are falling by hundreds daily,few years ago Amaranth Advisors hedge fund,the king of kings then,lost 13 billion.
The Oil is looking for a new bottom and no Gustav,Katrina,Rita,Wa... in Iran,Peak Oil will not stop it,every bubble have it's course why Oil can not be a bubble.Maybe there is not enough Oil at 40-50$ a barrel but at 115$ there is more than anyone can think.
If one watches the daily real time streaming Oil graph,one can see that overnight Oil goes up and up on slim volume,then pit opens with big orders flowing,it takes Oil another 1-1.50$ up,then on small volume every buyer is filled,filled,filled it brings Oil back 1-1.5$ then there are big egos (those that soon will liquidate their hedge funds) are buying and big volume appears again,it increases,increases,in... but strangely price moves few cents up an down AND THEN big guys enter the pit and say:Who is cool here?,show me the biggest buyer today of Oil,everybody points to some hedgies out there who buy on margin,then big guys say:Fill all the order book from here 3$ down immediately,I want everybody be filled at any price and then BOOM,BANG,the 1-minute bar chart looks like somebody placed an ATOMIC BOMB on the pit.
No doubt there is fight of egos going there,but the sellers know the real supply/demand situation,they were long Oil before,they made billions,now they simply are going to make billions on the short side.
If one thinks that in a world heading for a biggest crash since 1929 demand for Oil/Gas/Gold/Platinum, mining stocks,Intel,Motorola,... Valley wine,Champagne,Caviar,...
is going to increase,one at least must be CRAZY.
The DOW JONES 9000 by September-October 2008,August 2009 7000-7500 maximum and then why not 6000 and you all think China or India that depend on the West will buy Gold/Oil/Patek Philippe/Palladium by then,you are really all nuts.
I hope you buy Oil/Gas/Gold/Russell as macro needs somebody to sell.