jdmiller

Consumer Discretionary Sector is Going Down

I right there with you, esp. come December with the American Consumer. Could anyone assist me with the following questions related to this article?

The following well research study by the Anderson business school in UCLA correlates the business cycle and how housing has influenced this cycle since the Depression.
www.anderson.ucla.edu/...
If we fast forward to the conclusion, Pg.51, this is the meat of the doc.

“The temporal ordering of the spending weakness is: residential investment,
consumer durables, consumer nondurables and consumer services before the
recession, and then, once the recession officially commences, business spending
on the short-lived assets, equipment and software, and, last, business spending on
the long-lived assets, offices and factories. The ordering in the recovery is
exactly the same.”

1) Could you match the current “temporal ordering” we are currently blessed with with?
2) Are these “Temporal Orderings” in the right order?
3) From the answer to #1 above, could you assist me with matching the best short fund one could use to optimize their gains by pairing our current a “temporal ordering” with this fund?
4) Is this the best way to inverse the XLY?


My call is that we are in the Consumer Services “Temporal Order” phase and the AMEX:SCC Profunds is the most appropriate short fund to map right now at this time.
Any advice would be appreciated.

Thank you in advance,

FYI - Here is an update from the recent Jackson Hole trip from the above research.
www.kc.frb.org/publica...

-Josh