alancelt

Amazon Earnings Preview: How Long Before the Jig Is Up?

AMZN recently reached my target of $85 from its inverted Head & Shoulders formation. There is considerable resistance in the $90-95 range. With adverse fundamentals, technicals and economic conditions it is a reasonable short here, however it has also always been a dangerous short so be careful with it. Upside target $95, downside target $60 (to the H&S breakout level).

Amazon's Rich Valuation Defies Logic

I fully agree with this evaluation. The other thing that could hurt Amazon badly is sales tax. So far they have managed to escape paying sales tax in most states outside their base. With the recession biting, States will be looking at ways to boost their income and internet sales tax must be high on the list. Technically however the stock came out of an inverse head and shoulders formation so perhaps has an upside potential to around $85. If it gets there I would be going short again.

Arms Index Climax May Signal Market Bottom

Spikes can always spike higher and the market could drop further from here. Spikes are only clear in hindsight when the second half of the spike - the return to trend - is in place. Remember how the VIX spiked in late October and again in late November at a lower low. I hope you are right about this bottom, but don't count on it.

You Can't Keep The Markets Down

This is very misleading. The S&P 500 did not exist in 1928 so I have used the Dow as a substitute. if you bought at the beginning of 1928 the Dow was at 200. By the end of 1930 the Dow was at 170 - a loss of 15%, your $100 would be worth $85. At the end of 1935 the Dow was 140 and your investment $70. It was not until 1850 before the Dow stayed above 200 again. Hardly a great investment. So be careful before taking advice like this.

Bank of America / Merrill: Shotgun Marriage

Why are B of A paying $44B for Merrill, good question? Is this some sort of ploy to revalue some of the toxic paper upwards?

Potash Corp. Poised to Double Market Capitalization

While the long term fundamentals are compelling, POT has recently broken down below some key support levels at $180, including a long term rising trendline dating back to July 2006. The recent rise has been on diminishing volume. The near term direction is probably downward to the $120 level before another run at the high and a probable resumption of the uptrend.