double beta

Has the Housing Price Bubble Deflated?

People get distracted quickly by false horizons. Trendline up, double down; trendline down, pull the chips off the table.

There are alot of baby boomers and baby boomer accounts that have to realize a return on their investments inorder to even consider retirement. We have seized credit markets which dropped the velocity of money, once leverage re-enters the picture we will have a much bigger pool to multiply through the market thanks to our Fed's abilty to create dollars.

Like tech in 2001, we will be looking back at some 'shoulda-woulda' values 48-mos from now in residential, neverminding the inflation hedge. I am bearish for the next year on commercial, especially unanchored B & C retail and off market office.