bthomas's Comments

The Full Aleynikov Transcript

Thu, 09 Jul 2009 08:49:48 -0400

Is anyone at GS being indicted? Is this real? An institution can manipulate with impunity, but an individual cannot? WTF judge? BTW what's with all the typo's in this transcript? Starting with "United States of Americas" on the first page. They are numerous. I admit I don't know the intricacies of transcription, but amidst instead of admits? etc... Clearly this piece poses more questions than it answers. This is astounding.

YOUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK

Mon, 08 Jun 2009 19:50:27 -0400

"As we look back on what we've done, we're real proud of being able to go into a war theater like that as a private contractor and support 200,000 troops," William P. Utt, chairman of the Houston-based KBR, said in May interview with AP reporters and editors.

-And we've been stuffing Billions in our pockets since LBJ.

NAME PAULSON'S BOOK

Mon, 18 May 2009 19:36:48 -0400

GS Turdbundeler's Manifesto

NAME PAULSON'S BOOK

Mon, 18 May 2009 19:33:05 -0400

Fleecing America: A professional's story

NAME PAULSON'S BOOK

Mon, 18 May 2009 19:22:38 -0400

Saving Goldman: when AIG is too big to fail it's counter party

NAME PAULSON'S BOOK

Mon, 18 May 2009 19:17:57 -0400

"How to Steal America, sell it to China, and borrow it back with your neighbor's Visa card"

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Wed, 06 May 2009 21:25:16 -0400

Breadth and volume are key to true rallies. This is not a sustainable rally by any metric except the ruby slipper metric. No this isn't Kansas Dorothy, and we're not going home.

On May 06 07:59 AM dirty_dirty wrote:

> anyone look into how volume in this "rally" compares to past bear
> rallies? is this low volume trying to say something?

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Tue, 05 May 2009 07:46:48 -0400

Volume is truly key here because this action is so easily manipulated by "Da Boys." The grating thing is they're doing it with our (taxpayer) money. Does Timmy really want to release the Stress test results? Please. We shall see. It' still too early but, this may be the beginning of the new Epic Inflation Machine. The dollar index is sliding, prices are rising across the board. Commodities anyone?

U.S. Markets: Keep on Rockin' in the Free World

Sun, 26 Apr 2009 17:04:15 -0400

The prevailing mindset is to live comfortably. Typically that is significantly above one's means. That is the American consumer economy in a nutshell. Easy credit, cashout refinancing, etc, all fueled the consumer appetite, driving up housing which was the linchpin. The really big money was apparently betting big against the consumer's ability to pay for his comfortable life. We are now honoring those bets with tax dollars. This the second raping of the taxpayer. What necessities are being forgone while trillions go into financial coffers? Education budgets, infrastructure, security, planning, etc. We really don't know how much we've lost as we Keep on rockin' in the free world. I say mostly the "Free" part.
Excellent post. Keep the faith James.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Sat, 25 Apr 2009 00:03:12 -0400

Demark indicators are used to anticipate trend reversals.

On Apr 24 07:33 PM cma cma wrote:

> David, you sometimes post the Demark chart, which is great, since
> no one else does, but we need the interpretation, please!

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Fri, 24 Apr 2009 12:21:28 -0400

Nonsense,
Turn off the PlayStation and read a book. Learn a little more about charts before commenting. I am certain it is nonsense to the ignorant. David Fry is one of the best informed, most straight talking authors on the SA sight. Get a clue!

On Apr 24 05:47 AM Nonsense wrote:

> Use your keyboard more. Communicate better what it is you are trying
> to tell us.
>
> Any stiff can copy/paste a collage of charts in a blog.

Are the Banks Telling Us the Truth?

Mon, 13 Apr 2009 20:39:14 -0400

If liquidity is the issue, and MTM of illiquid assets has somehow affected liquidity to the point that banks are insolvent then they were probably insolvent already. That being said, why continue the charade of securitizing the debt? Have this mess unbundled since there is no foreseeable market for it anyway. Don't abandon any semblance of oversight. Have all government agencies abdicated inherent responsibility? Or is America simply too soft and spineless for anyone to actually do the right thing to accomplish the task at hand? Let's hope Mr. Barofsky is up to the task, and can (is allowed to) exercise his authority.

Rainbows and Wildflowers Will Fill Our Economic Desert

Fri, 10 Apr 2009 21:49:33 -0400

Is Loose Loose the same as lose lose? Also vagueness is key with Geithner's approach.

On Apr 10 01:08 PM PainfullyAware wrote:

> You Rock Steven !!!
>
> I dig the "Summary Economic Data Sessions" you present.
>
> Something to ponder: With the new PPIP program do you think the
> government will purchase any of the "Interest Rate Derivatives"?
> I am worried they might. If they do they will possibly have a conflict
> of interest when it comes time to raise the interest rates to curtail
> inflation. A Loose Loose Situation?
>
> Based upon the open conference call I was on with the Treasury discussing
> the preliminary structuring of the program - They are looking for
> input for what to do and how to structure this program. Details
> are vague at this point.
>
> Thanks for considering more than just what you "Would Like To Hear".

$200 Oil Is Coming While We Waste a Perfectly Good Crisis (Part 3)

Wed, 08 Apr 2009 20:06:42 -0400

The conditions described here, while irrefutable in the advancement of time are not impending to the order of several months or quarters but more like years, this will occur! States like Mexico, as you have stated cannot limit production because their economy is so dependent on nationalized oil revenue. Despite OPEC's assertions to limit production, evidence to the contrary exists. Price decline despite demand destruction as well as contango in oil markets. While our government's leaders are clearly distracted with putting Humpty back on his financial wall, this crisis must abate before anyone will focus on energy. If however this occurs as one of your sources predicts it will be suitable impetus for an workable energy policy. Save more, consume less, produce more on every level. Possibly on the scale as WWII productivity. America must produce something other than debt and illegitimate babies. Government contracts for wind turbines and plug in electric cars from U.S. auto manufacturing companies seems like a start, with tax incentive to go electric. Unfortunately, we only approach a policy decision when our choices are bad.

ECRI: Signs of Economic Improvement

Sun, 05 Apr 2009 10:02:43 -0400

Hansen,
I guess that you must work for ECRI, to be posting their subscription information On SA . Maybe prudent marketing on their part? I hope. I Found this on their site as well: "Personal Use Only

The ECRI Services are made available for your personal, non-commercial use only. Redistribution of the ECRI Services is not permitted. You may not use the ECRI Services to sell a product or service, or to increase traffic to your Web site for commercial reasons, such as advertising sales. You may not take content from ECRI’s website and reformat and display them, or mirror the ECRI home page or results pages on your Web site. If you want to make commercial use of the ECRI Services, you must enter into an agreement with ECRI to do so in advance. Please contact us for more information."

FASB's New Mark-to-Market Standards: April Fools' Came a Day Late This Year

Fri, 03 Apr 2009 21:56:27 -0400

The Cost of a Global Empire

Tue, 31 Mar 2009 13:36:08 -0400

James,
I think one point that seems to be missed is that despite the massive spending for military purposes, the equipping of the boots on the ground seems piecemeal at best. Show me the money Pentagon.
Most people expect the best equipment available if ten times the money is spent. I do not find this article propagandist. Though I do believe the best deterrent to war is having (but not necessarily using) overwhelming force. I'm just not sure we are getting what we paid for. The military industrial complex helps the economy by providing well paying jobs. War pigs? P'lease!

How We Could Let AIG Fail, Sort Of

Sat, 21 Mar 2009 11:25:25 -0400

What has already happened to them? Apply adverb here: They're ____!

On Mar 21 11:08 AM friar tuck wrote:

> what happens to the common stock holders if aig goes chapter 11?

The Escalator of Life Is Going Down (Part 2)

Fri, 20 Mar 2009 11:38:22 -0400

While I agree with the sentiment of the article. Personal responsibility lies with everyone who remained exposed to this market since Oct. 2007. If you lost big that is still your fault. As harsh as that sounds. Herd mentality tends to eliminate most of the herd, in my experience. The truly sad fact is that we (mostly congress) didn't learn from the Great Depression, and repealed Glass-Steagall. Now roughly ten years hence we are up to our ears in this mess. For the same period GDP was essentially driven exclusively by housing cash out refinance. So we produced nothing but convoluted derivative debt that has nearly collapsed the economy. House Financial Services Committee, U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs; you should be proud of yourselves. Now get to work!

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Fri, 20 Mar 2009 08:55:15 -0400

Congress wastes the taxpayers' time going after government employees (technically 80% gov. stake). If senate goes along, the courts will likely declare it unconstitutional. The lawmakers need to focus on the deregulation issue that allowed this abuse. So GS was hedged against an AIG bankruptcy. Who insured it? AIG? Are we certain bankruptcy would have been worse? Glass Steagall or something better, (unlikely, I know) must be (re) instated. This keeps the giddy bankers aware they are playing with other people's money. They smeared the line like a one year old with his birthday cake. Lax regulation, when everyone was flush with cash, home values only rising, money was free, -that's what got us here as greed ruled the day. We must go From '08, '09 back to depression era regulatory policy.The deja vu all over again thing (thanks Yogi). We must blame ourselves, not the least of which: Phil, Alan, Billy, Bobby and "under the big" top Sandy. I am certain none feel personally responsible, as the "Maestro" has already stated he is not. Hold on kids inflation is coming.

Fed Tries Its Own Version of 'Shock and Awe'

Thu, 19 Mar 2009 11:12:47 -0400

Inflation reduces the debt.

On Mar 19 01:10 AM zanardm wrote:

> If 1 million people show up on the Mall with pails, waiting for a
> bailout; and if each gets a check for $1M, then this is what $1trillion
> looks like. But this is less than 1% of households. This shows how
> little $1 trillion is. So the Feds actions are in vain. A long time
> is necessary for confidence to return, per H. Greenberg, so i heard.
> So is the Fed just debasing the currency? Is it time for dual currencies
> here? Perhaps a Fed Reserve West in the heartland, with a N.A. dollar
> (North American dollar), with tight bank management controls, good
> IT team, and transparency and accountability, especially when temptation
> (creating money) is at the door or window. Start the 2 currencies
> at par. Then let all Americans decide what currency they prefer in
> transactions, both personal and for accounting. A more limited supply
> increases the value of any commodity, including a currency; hence
> protecting the value of a currency. There is too much money out there
> idling already; more geenbacks by the Fed is not the solution; too
> much debt is the problem. Debt city or deleveraging city (D.C.) what's
> the call - America?

Truth and Consequences of the Fed Purchasing Treasuries

Thu, 19 Mar 2009 10:25:47 -0400

Excellent, thought provoking article. Great comment stream thus far.
Fed still has many options, deflation may be evident, still (as reader Randy_H points out) if we didn't have the fed, congress would be in charge of the currency. That's almost scarier than nukes. Fed action to this degree seems a way to quell uncertainty/ instill confidence beyond CDS debacle etc. This will certainly need reeling in over time. Bernanke wants inflation. THe Epic Inflation Machine is now thermonuclear.

AIG's Not Very Transparent List of Counterparties

Tue, 17 Mar 2009 11:39:49 -0400

Freddo,
AIG was the hedge!

On Mar 16 11:58 AM mr freddo wrote:

>
> I am surprised that we haven't yet seen angry mobs storming AIG headquarters
> and ransacking the offices.
>
> The disclosures identify what many Seeking Alpha commenters have
> already guessed at. The bailout money went to financial institutions
> that played the game and should have gotten burned properly, or not
> if they were adequately hedged.
>
> On top of the disclosures, we now have the bonus fiasco. How much
> of this can the average tax payer take? How much bonus money would
> AIG be paying out if it had been allowed to go bankrupt? There should
> be some way to void these contracts.
>
> I don't know of any other situation in capitalism where you work
> for a company, succeed in blowing it skyhigh, and then get your bonus.
> Who wrote these contracts anyway?

Jos. A. Bank (JOSB) may be hoping job losses level off. The clothier, which targets male professionals, says it will refund the price of a suit (up to $199) if its wearer loses his job. "We want to help the customer look good at work, and if he loses his job, to be dressed appropriately as he meets with his next employer."

Tue, 17 Mar 2009 10:56:43 -0400

Apparently just overpriced.

On Mar 17 10:53 AM joshuaodonnell wrote:

> This may be the next retailer to go into bankruptcy. They've been
> having 60% off sales for the last 6 months..... They must be desperate.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Tue, 17 Mar 2009 10:34:15 -0400

A major problem is that expediency seldom is profitable when liquidation is concerned. The easiest sold segment is rarely the most profitable. It will likely be pennies on the dollar for the taxpayer in this method. Since we're 'in to win', the long haul is going to prove better at serving the public good. The complex derivative nonsense can be unwound etc. Time will tell. BTW. Where is Paulson these days. AIG gives GS the payout and Buffet gets a guaranteed 10%. Can you say subpoena? That's right. Paulson has immunity?

On Mar 17 07:27 AM unfaire wrote:

> I opposed the TARP. I smelt something fishy from the very beginning.
> It turned out that I was right. Most of those who got the TARP money
> are double dipping, or even triple dipping. It goes this way:
> 1. I lost billions buying some crappy financial instrument like CDS
> from, say, AIG and other cohorts.
> 2. Give me billions, tax payers, so that I can stay in business.
> I am too big to fail.
> 3. So, I got billions of tax payers’ money.
> 4. AIG as well as all the cohorts also got billions of tax payers’
> money.
> 5. Since and AIG and all the cohorts are flush with tax payers’ money,
> take back from me those crappy financial instrument and pay me in
> full.
> 6. Now, AIG and all the cohorts including me got back those crappy
> financial instruments, I am in poor house again. Tax payers please
> make me full again by giving me billions.
> 7. And, the cycle goes on again.
> Under the guise of too big to fail, we tax payers are continue to
> be taken for suckers. It is still not too late to:
> 1. Stop bailing them out.
> 2. Sell off various parts of the failing financial institutions in
> piece meal under the government supervision.
> 3. Give back the tax payers first whatever that can be recovered
> from the sale.
> 4. If there is any left, let the other stakeholders have them.
In
> a capitalist society, when the price is right, i.e., cheap enough
> so that some pieces of these failing institutions can be made profitable,
> there will be someone who would buy them and make money from them.
> In doing so, most of these pieces will be healthy again and making
> money by themselves without any more of tax payers’ money.
> Bernanke said very well. I believe this is what he meant: When the
> politicians do not have the will to go against the self interests
> of the financial biggies, neglecting the well being of the all the
> rest including us the tax payers and who put them in office, we will
> never solve the problem.

AIG's Blackmail Note

Mon, 16 Mar 2009 17:27:01 -0400

What is a "life"(is that the same as life policy) policy and why are there 19 trillion in face value on 375 million policies in the U.S.? These numbers are directly from this report on page: 4. Or is it 1.9 trillion in life policies to 81 million as it says on page: 9? Writer? Which is it typo? Double speak? If they don't know why are they still in charge of this company? Who needs terrorists when we have AIGFP. Talk about PONZI these guys got everybody.

Clearwire: The Highway for Mobile Internet Devices

Mon, 16 Mar 2009 06:40:41 -0400

The writer's estimate shows. 4 billion+/mo = 50 Billion/yr.

Chart of the Day: U.S. Sovereign Weirdness

Sat, 14 Mar 2009 18:48:05 -0400

Mine does.

On Mar 14 04:02 PM Roger Knights wrote:

> Typo: The chart doesn't enlarge when clicked.

Chinese Are Likely to Halt Purchases of U.S. Treasury Debt

Fri, 13 Mar 2009 21:18:11 -0400

Unless they buy all the gold mines, copper mines, etc. with it.

On Mar 13 01:48 PM Amitabha Mukhopadhyay wrote:

> China simply has no choice. The path it has taken to take the country
> at high growth rate by producing goods at a very cheap rate by over
> exploitation of its labor force and them dump its goods on America
> and also keeping its currency artificially low. What it will do with
> its 2 trillion dollar reserve if America finding no other alternative
> starts printing the money. Then the chinese reserve of 2 trillion
> dollars will dimish to 1 trillion dollars.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Fri, 13 Mar 2009 20:55:02 -0400

The bankers must be reined in. We should start with rational regulation where responsible adults can trust the veracity of what comprises AAA rated securities. Those irresponsible parties must be held accountable. Conflict of interest is pervasive on all sides, from government to regulator to business . This seems to escape everyone's attention. It's all public money now folks, the public trust must be upheld. We are ten years hence from repealing Glass Steagall. Everything is in shambles now because greed overrode every other aspect of life. The Fed has too much power. congress should work to rein this in. Glass Steagall, or whatever replaces it, must be enacted to require people to do what greedy people cannot do for themselves: -the right thing. Split them up. Preserve the public trust.