There really has been no rally at all in nat gas recently, hence the performance of UNG and other ETF's. Look at a chart of Dec futures, they just took out the Sept. lows and have had a nominal bounce the last two days. The entire "rally" has been the steep contango coming out of the market somewhat and even with a sharply (10-15%) colder winter heating season the odds are very good of entering next spring with still bloated inventories. A market which can't rally with a strong crude complex and a weak dollar does not merit investment at the current time.
Is Natural Gas About to Break Higher? [View article]
why would there be a push to outlaw fracking? this is clearly still the driver of continued high production even in the face of a greatly reduced rig count
On Jul 22 11:27 AM geofisher1 wrote:
> The question is where are we going from here, and I agree. Cycles > in price, supply, and demand are natural and the most sucessful way > to make money in nat gas / oil is to buy @ 5 yr and 10 yr lows (they > don't come around very often). If you are a medium term investor, > now is the time to load up on nat gas pipelines and smaller E&P > guys. Watch out for the push to outlaw fracking, as it will shut > down 30% of oil and 50% of current nat gas wells - forget Haynesville > if that happens. New pipelines xcountry will open up new areas for > gas comptition - ie new pipeline from Rockys to Chi-town and Haynesville > to FL. Interesting times and I'm long nat gas - DMLP, EPD, APA, ATPG, > GMXR, GO.TO. Just my humble opinion
Devon Energy Excited About Haynesville Shale Potential [View article]
agree that bigger picture if cng gets traction devon is a good play, but in the short run, nat gas prices are going lower. production is ramping up fast in haynesville and marcellus is right behind. margins will be neglible when nat gas is trading with a 6 handle or lower.
why would producers be looking to acquire inventory? producers should be looking to sell for hedges on any rally. production has been ramping up and despite serious hurricane activity this market can barely bounce.
Spreading Oil and Natural Gas: A Post-Labor Day Plan [View article]
Shouldn't the ratio of futures contracts for energy equivalency be 5.8 nat gas vs 10 crude? Nat gas is 10,000 mmbtu/contract and 58 long contracts of NG vs only 10 short crude would have had seriously bad consequences post Gustav.
Natural Gas: Ride U-Turn Up [View article]
Is Natural Gas About to Break Higher? [View article]
On Jul 22 11:27 AM geofisher1 wrote:
> The question is where are we going from here, and I agree. Cycles
> in price, supply, and demand are natural and the most sucessful way
> to make money in nat gas / oil is to buy @ 5 yr and 10 yr lows (they
> don't come around very often). If you are a medium term investor,
> now is the time to load up on nat gas pipelines and smaller E&P
> guys. Watch out for the push to outlaw fracking, as it will shut
> down 30% of oil and 50% of current nat gas wells - forget Haynesville
> if that happens. New pipelines xcountry will open up new areas for
> gas comptition - ie new pipeline from Rockys to Chi-town and Haynesville
> to FL. Interesting times and I'm long nat gas - DMLP, EPD, APA, ATPG,
> GMXR, GO.TO. Just my humble opinion
Devon Energy Excited About Haynesville Shale Potential [View article]
5 Market Trends To Watch This Week [View article]
Spreading Oil and Natural Gas: A Post-Labor Day Plan [View article]